Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Southern Copper Corporation stock $159, price $198, upside -19.8%, quality 79 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $35.66 – $219.70 · fair‑value band $101.72 – $218.20 · the $198.07 price screens above the $158.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
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Southern Copper Corporation engages in mining, exploring, smelting, and refining copper and other minerals in Mexico, the United States, Peru, Brazil, Chile, and Other American countries.
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The company is involved in the mining, milling, and flotation of copper ore to produce copper and molybdenum concentrates; smelting of copper concentrates to produce blister and anode copper; refining of anode copper to produce copper cathodes; production of copper-molybdenum concentrates and sulfuric acid; production of refined silver, gold, and other materials; and mining and processing of copper, molybdenum, zinc, silver, gold and lead.
It operates the Toquepala and Cuajone open-pit mines, smelter, and refinery in Peru; La Caridad, an open-pit copper mine, as well as copper ore concentrator; and SX-EW plant, a smelter, refinery, and rod plant in Mexico.
The company also operates Buenavista, an open-pit copper mine, as well as copper concentrators and operating SX-EW plants in Mexico. In addition, it operates underground mines that produce zinc, lead, copper, silver, and gold; coal mine; and zinc refinery.
The company has interests in 164,805 hectares and 505,788 hectares of concessions in Peru and Mexico; and 98,634 hectares and 28,453 hectares of exploration concessions in Argentina and Chile.
Southern Copper Corporation was formerly known as Southern Peru Copper Corp. and changed its name to Southern Copper Corporation in July 1996. The company was incorporated in 1952 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona. Southern Copper Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Americas Mining Corporation.
Stock analysis
Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) currently trades at $198.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $158.88, 19.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $81.65 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $198.07 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $38.01, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $101.72 (bear) to $218.20 (bull), the price of $198.07 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Southern Copper Corporation reported revenue of $13.4B in FY2025 versus $10.9B in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was $4.3B in FY2025, compounding +6.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $164B Large · P/E ratio 29.4 · P/S ratio 10.4 · EPS (TTM) $6.74 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 35.9% · Return on equity 49.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 29.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 89 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 71% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −20%, SCCO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$101.72Fair Value $158.88Bull$218.20
Price $198.07 · Upside -19.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.61 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.93/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.3% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+9.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Per share before 2012divided by the spin-off factor 1.0107
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20.6% vs 17.8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.39% → 52%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.9% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Robust earnings and margins from current operations form the main strength while limited evidence of a durable moat plus parent control concentration remain the key weakness.
Main risk: Delays or cost overruns in the Peru and Mexico expansion projects would erode the expected output gains from the pipeline.
Southern Copper generates robust earnings and margins from its current operations even as copper prices stay elevated. Our models see the shares as overvalued because the valuation already builds in the full success of its extensive multi-year expansion pipeline in Peru and Mexico. Will delays or cost overruns in those projects erode the expected output gains or will the existing asset base keep delivering stronger results than the growth assumptions imply?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 56 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−19.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)49.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets20.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)35.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)61.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)40.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.61× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper
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Is Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $158.88 versus a price of $198.07, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SCCO?
Our model-based fair value for Southern Copper Corporation is $158.88 (as of Oct 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $198.07.
What is the quality score of SCCO?
Southern Copper Corporation has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $158.88 (as of Oct 21, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $101.72, optimistic scenario $218.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Southern Copper Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $158.88, about −20% upside versus a price of $198.07 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $101.72, optimistic scenario $218.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)?
Southern Copper Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $15.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 21, 2026).
Does Southern Copper Corporation pay a dividend?
Southern Copper Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.78% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 21, 2026).
What growth is priced into Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Southern Copper Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +25.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.9 % per year. As of Oct 21, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SCCO use?
Our models discount Southern Copper Corporation at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.13, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Southern Copper Corporation that is +25.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Southern Copper Corporation grew +10.9 % a year. The price currently implies +25.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Southern Copper Corporation (+25.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.09 %: that much free cash flow Southern Copper Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Southern Copper Corporation it is $158.88 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026), against a price of $198.07. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Southern Copper Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 21, 2026, SCCO trades above its calculated fair value: price $198.07, fair value $158.88, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SCCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($198.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($158.88). For Southern Copper Corporation the two are $39.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Southern Copper Corporation worth?
The market values Southern Copper Corporation at about $164B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 21, 2026). Per share that is $198.07; our models calculate a fair value of $158.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SCCO?
Our models span a range for Southern Copper Corporation: cautious scenario $101.72, base $158.88, optimistic $218.20 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026, price $198.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SCCO?
Southern Copper Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.4 (as of Oct 21, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $158.88 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 5.4, P/B 14.9, P/S 10.4, EV/EBITDA 16.8.
What is the PEG ratio of SCCO?
The PEG ratio of Southern Copper Corporation is 5.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 21, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Southern Copper Corporation (as of Oct 21, 2026): return on equity 49.9%, debt of 0.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SCCO from its 52-week high?
Southern Copper Corporation trades at $198.07, about 10% below its 52-week high of $219.70 and 71% above the low of $116.07 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $158.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Southern Copper Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Freeport-McMoRan Inc, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Lundin Mining Corporation, Jiangxi Copper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Southern Copper Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 21, 2026: price $198.07, calculated fair value $158.88 (−20%), Quality Score 79/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SCCO calculated?
We run Southern Copper Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $158.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Southern Copper Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $198.07. Our model-based fair value is $158.88, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Southern Copper Corporation right now?
A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range ($101.72 to $218.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) come from?
Earnings per share at Southern Copper Corporation grew +15.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.8 %, EBIT margin +4.6 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Southern Copper Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)?
The market capitalisation of Southern Copper Corporation is $164B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Southern Copper Corporation is 10.4 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)?
Earnings per share at Southern Copper Corporation are $6.74 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)?
The dividend yield of Southern Copper Corporation is 1.8% (payout 52.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)?
The net margin of Southern Copper Corporation is 35.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Southern Copper Corporation is 49.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Southern Copper Corporation is 29.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)?
The operating margin of Southern Copper Corporation is 61.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)?
Revenue at Southern Copper Corporation is growing +40.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)?
Earnings per share at Southern Copper Corporation are growing +71.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) carry?
The net debt of Southern Copper Corporation is $3.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 21, 2026