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China Nonferrous Mining Corporation (1258) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$44.6B

CN China Nonferrous Mining Corporation 1258 · HK
PriceHK$14.21
Fair ValueHK$1.76
Upside-87.6%
Quality68/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 11.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.36% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/14)
Moderate moat 60/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$1.32 – HK$2.20 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price +9.9% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 88% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$2.20). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$17.73 HK$1.65 Fair Value HK$1.76 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.65 – HK$17.73 · fair‑value band HK$1.32 – HK$2.20 · the HK$14.21 price screens above the HK$1.76 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China Nonferrous Mining Corporation (1258) currently trades at HK$14.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.76, implying the stock looks roughly 87.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, China Nonferrous Mining Corporation generated revenue of HK$3.4B at a net margin of 11.8%. Revenue declined 7.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$1.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.32 (bear case) to HK$2.20 (bull case); at HK$14.21, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 112% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -54% fair-value upside, at -88%, 1258 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (HK$0.4300 to HK$3.85). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$2.59 HK$3.72 HK$5.35 80
Residual Income HK$0.6800 HK$0.9000 HK$2.65 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.71 HK$2.34 HK$3.10 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$2.56 HK$3.85 HK$5.85 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.49 HK$2.15 HK$3.18 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.71 HK$2.32 HK$3.09 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.29 HK$3.43 HK$4.76 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.90 HK$2.70 HK$3.52 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.97 HK$2.61 HK$3.44 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.37 HK$3.38 HK$4.73 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$2.12 HK$2.87 HK$3.77 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.7000 HK$2.34 HK$3.13 54
Lynch FV HK$0.5300 HK$0.7600 HK$0.9800 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.5300 HK$0.7600 HK$0.9800 46
EPV HK$1.81 HK$2.05 HK$2.26 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.32 HK$1.76 HK$2.20 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.9900 HK$1.31 HK$1.64 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.32 HK$1.76 HK$2.20 55
EV/EBIT HK$2.58 HK$3.31 HK$4.05 53
EV/EBITDA HK$2.36 HK$3.03 HK$3.69 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.30 HK$1.69 HK$2.09 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.3200 HK$0.4300 HK$0.6400 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$2.59 HK$3.72 HK$5.35 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.71 HK$2.34 HK$3.10 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.6800 HK$0.9000 HK$2.65 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.88 HK$2.21 HK$2.56 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.15 HK$1.64 HK$2.13 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$2.70) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.4300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$3.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) -7.6%
Net margin 11.8%
Return on equity 18.1%
Free cash flow HK$737M FY2025
P/E ratio 14.1 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 13.9%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0700
Dividend yield 0.4%
EPS growth (YoY) -21.4%
Net cash HK$1.4B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 68/100

Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 52
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 88
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 95
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 29
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 68
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, mining, ore processing, leaching, smelting, and sale of copper and cobalt in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. It operates through the Leaching and Smelting segments.

Full company description

China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, mining, ore processing, leaching, smelting, and sale of copper and cobalt in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. It operates through the Leaching and Smelting segments. The company offers copper cathodes, blister copper, rough copper, and copper anodes; and cobalt hydroxide, sulfuric acid, and liquid sulfur dioxide. It sells its products in Singapore, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Africa, and Belgium. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Beijing, China. China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited is a subsidiary of China Nonferrous Mining Development Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Nonferrous Mining Corporation reported revenue of HK$3.4B in FY2025 versus HK$4.1B in FY2021, a compound −4.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$404M in FY2025, compounding +3.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$3.4B
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.7%
Avg. growth/yr (15Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.0%
Revenue −4.1%/yr
FY21 HK$4.1B
FY22 HK$4.1B
FY23 HK$3.6B
FY24 HK$3.8B
FY25 HK$3.4B
Net income +3.2%/yr
FY21 HK$357M
FY22 HK$266M
FY23 HK$278M
FY24 HK$399M
FY25 HK$404M

1258 screens 88% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →

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China Nonferrous Mining Corporation · Fair Value
HK$1.76 −88%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1258

Peer Group

Copper · 59 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −88% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Return on assets 10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 12% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Above median
Revenue growth -8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.4% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 2.28× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.66× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 7.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 100
PAST 72 · sector 26
HEALTH 100 · sector 93
DIVIDEND 7 · sector 20

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Southern Copper Corporation SCCO $194.89 $85.17 -56%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX $69.22 $22.81 -67%
Lundin Mining Corporation LUN C$36.91 C$18.67 -49%
Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 ¥46.47 ¥35.19 -24%
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 ¥6.63 ¥3.06 -54%
Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM C$38.79 C$21.25 -45%
Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 ¥19.38 ¥6.39 -67%
Capstone Copper Corp CSC A$15.85 A$7.28 -54%
Yunnan Copper Co 000878 ¥16.68 ¥7.46 -55%
Sandfire Resources Limited SFR A$21.57 A$3.39 -84%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Nonferrous Mining Corporation (1258) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.76 versus a price of HK$14.21, about −88% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1258?
Our model-based fair value for China Nonferrous Mining Corporation is HK$1.76 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$14.21.
What is the quality score of 1258?
China Nonferrous Mining Corporation has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Nonferrous Mining Corporation (1258)?
China Nonferrous Mining Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$3.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1258?
The net profit margin of China Nonferrous Mining Corporation is about 11.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 11.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Nonferrous Mining Corporation pay a dividend?
China Nonferrous Mining Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.36% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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