China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd (1258) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$44.6B (≈ $5.7B) · ISIN HK0000112026

What is China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd really worth?

CN China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd 1258 · HK

PriceHK$16.56

Fair ValueHK$13.81

Upside−16.6%

Quality68/100

A solid business, but trading 20% above our fair value of HK$13.81.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 11.8% net margin

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓Ranks above peers (11/14)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.7 %/yr)

!Moderate moat 60/100

!Weak on valuation: 11 out of 100

!Weak on dividend: 5 out of 100

For context

·0.25% dividend yield

Evidence: High Range HK$10.36 – HK$17.26

Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Fair value updated Sep 1, 2026, revised from HK$1.76 to HK$13.81 (+684.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +3.6% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.10 – HK$17.73 · fair‑value band HK$10.36 – HK$17.26 · the HK$16.56 price screens above the HK$13.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd (1258) currently trades at HK$16.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$13.81, implying the stock looks roughly 19.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$2.70 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$16.56 price. Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at HK$1.64, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd generated revenue of HK$3.4B at a net margin of 11.8%. Revenue declined 7.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$1.4B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$10.36 (bear case) to HK$17.26 (bull case); at HK$16.56, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 147% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −17%, 1258 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0196 per share, which is 0.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (HK$0.4300 to HK$3.85). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF HK$2.56 HK$3.85 HK$5.85 77

Growth DCF HK$2.59 HK$3.72 HK$5.35 76

Owner Earnings HK$1.49 HK$2.15 HK$3.18 74

All 24 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$2.56 HK$3.85 HK$5.85 77

Owner Earnings HK$1.49 HK$2.15 HK$3.18 74

5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.71 HK$2.32 HK$3.09 71

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.29 HK$3.43 HK$4.76 73

5Y P/E Exit HK$1.90 HK$2.70 HK$3.52 69

10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.97 HK$2.61 HK$3.44 66

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.37 HK$3.38 HK$4.73 66

10Y P/E Exit HK$2.12 HK$2.87 HK$3.77 63

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$0.7000 HK$2.34 HK$3.13 62

Lynch FV HK$0.5300 HK$0.7600 HK$0.9800 59

PEG = 1.0 HK$0.5300 HK$0.7600 HK$0.9800 55

EPV HK$1.81 HK$2.05 HK$2.26 74

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$1.32 HK$1.76 HK$2.20 63

P/S Multiple HK$0.9900 HK$1.31 HK$1.64 58

P/B Multiple HK$1.32 HK$1.76 HK$2.20 55

EV/EBIT HK$2.58 HK$3.31 HK$4.05 66

EV/EBITDA HK$2.36 HK$3.03 HK$3.69 67

EV/Revenue HK$1.30 HK$1.69 HK$2.09 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$0.3200 HK$0.4300 HK$0.6400 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$2.59 HK$3.72 HK$5.35 76

Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.71 HK$2.34 HK$3.10 71

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$0.6800 HK$0.9000 HK$2.65 63

ROIC Compounder HK$1.88 HK$2.21 HK$2.56 70

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.15 HK$1.64 HK$2.13 65

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$2.70) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.4300). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 14.1 as of Jul 2, 2026

P/S ratio 1.67 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$0.0700 price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.1

Dividend yield 0.2% payout 58.6%

Net margin 11.8% FY2025

Return on equity 18.1% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 17.3% avg 5y

Operating margin 13.9% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$3.4B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) −7.6% 3y avg −5.8%

EPS growth (YoY) −21.4%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$737M FY2025

Net cash HK$1.4B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 68/100

Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68

Profitability 52

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 42

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 88

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 95

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 57

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 29

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 79

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 92

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 68

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, mining, ore processing, leaching, smelting, and sale of copper and cobalt in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. It operates through the Leaching and Smelting segments. The company offers copper cathodes, blister copper, rough copper, and copper anodes; and cobalt hydroxide, sulfuric acid, and liquid sulfur dioxide. It sells its products in Singapore, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Africa, and Belgium. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Beijing, China. China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited is a subsidiary of China Nonferrous Mining Development Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd reported revenue of $3.4B in FY2025 versus $4.1B in FY2021, a compound −4.1%/yr. Reported net income was $404M in FY2025, compounding +3.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$3.4B

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

−2.0%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+13.7%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (15Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+12.0%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+9.5% (9.3 + 0.2)

Revenue −4.1%/yr

FY21 $4.1B

FY22 $4.1B

FY23 $3.6B

FY24 $3.8B

FY25 $3.4B

Net income +3.2%/yr

FY21 $357M

FY22 $266M

FY23 $278M

FY24 $399M

FY25 $404M

1258 screens 20% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →

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China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd · Fair Value
HK$13.81 −20%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1258

Peer Group

Copper · 59 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 68 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside −17% · Above median

Return on equity (TTM) 18% · Top 25%

Return on assets 10% · Top 25%

Net margin (TTM) 12% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Above median

Revenue growth −8% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 2.29× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 1.66× · Cheaper than median

P/FCF 7.7× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 4.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE11 · sector 0

FUTURE0 · sector 100

PAST72 · sector 34

HEALTH100 · sector 92

DIVIDEND5 · sector 21

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Southern Copper Corporation SCCO	$216.28	$85.17	−61%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX	$75.74	$22.81	−70%
First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM	C$43.46	C$16.35	−62%
Lundin Mining Corporation LUN	C$35.76	C$22.65	−37%
Jiangxi Copper Company 600362	¥45.86	¥35.19	−23%
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630	¥6.37	¥3.06	−52%
MMG Limited 1208	HK$9.08	HK$5.29	−42%
Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM	C$38.79	C$21.25	−45%
Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203	¥19.78	¥6.39	−68%
Capstone Copper Corp CS	C$14.82	C$9.91	−33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd (1258) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$13.81 versus a price of HK$16.56, about −17% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of 1258?

Our model-based fair value for China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd is HK$13.81 (as of Sep 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$16.56.

What is the quality score of 1258?

China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the revenue of China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd (1258)?

China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$3.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 1, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 1258?

The net profit margin of China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd is about 11.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 11.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd pay a dividend?

China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.25% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 1, 2026).

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