Zhejiang Hailiang Co Ltd (002203) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 56.7B CNY (≈ $8.5B) · ISIN CNE1000008X5
What is Zhejiang Hailiang Co Ltd really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 247% above our fair value of ¥5.43.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 18, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price −1.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.41 – ¥26.30 · fair‑value band ¥4.08 – ¥7.34 · the ¥18.84 price screens above the ¥5.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
Analysis
Zhejiang Hailiang Co Ltd (002203) currently trades at ¥18.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.43, implying the stock looks roughly 246.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥11.45 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥18.84 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥4.92, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Zhejiang Hailiang Co Ltd generated revenue of 86.7B CNY at a net margin of 1.2%. Revenue grew 17.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.5%. Net debt stands at 13.7B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥4.08 (bear case) to ¥7.34 (bull case); at ¥18.84, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 97% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −71%, 002203 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.1780 per share, which is 3.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥11.45) versus Asset-Based (¥4.92). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, sale, and service of copper products, conductor materials, and aluminum-based materials in China and internationally. It operates through Copper and Aluminum Processing Business, Environmental Materials Business, and Loan Business segments.
Full company description
Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, sale, and service of copper products, conductor materials, and aluminum-based materials in China and internationally. It operates through Copper and Aluminum Processing Business, Environmental Materials Business, and Loan Business segments. The company offers copper tube products comprising copper coils and straight tubes, brass straight tubes and coils, and copper nickel straight tubes and coils; copper and brass pipe fittings; copper and brass rods; copper busbars; lithium battery and electronic circuit copper foil; aluminum flat and round tubes; honeycomb denitration catalysts; refrigerant branch pipes, rubber pipe insulation, air conditioning cable ties, and welding rods; and environmentally friendly materials. It serves the new energy, home appliance, power, semiconductor, 5G communication, and construction industries. The company also engages in the loan and financial service businesses; commodity circulation; technology research and development; investment management; property management; logistics; power generation; technical service; and leasing activities. Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Zhuji, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Zhejiang Hailiang Co Ltd reported revenue of 83.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 63.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was 943M CNY in FY2025, compounding −3.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +22.2 % · buybacks/dilution −2.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
002203 screens 247% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Peer Group
Copper · 59 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $216.28 | $85.17 | −61% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $75.74 | $22.81 | −70% |
| First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM | C$43.46 | C$16.35 | −62% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$35.76 | C$22.65 | −37% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥45.86 | ¥35.19 | −23% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥6.37 | ¥3.06 | −52% |
| MMG Limited 1208 | HK$9.08 | HK$5.29 | −42% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$38.79 | C$21.25 | −45% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CS | C$14.82 | C$9.91 | −33% |
| Yunnan Copper Co 000878 | ¥17.06 | ¥7.46 | −56% |
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