First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$30.5B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +11.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 77% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$14.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (C$5.98 to C$14.14) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$9.65 – C$46.13 · fair‑value band C$5.98 – C$14.14 · the C$43.24 price screens above the C$10.06 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM) currently trades at C$43.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$10.06, implying the stock looks roughly 76.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, First Quantum Minerals Ltd generated revenue of C$5.5B at a net margin of -3.7%. Revenue grew 18.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.1%. Net debt stands at C$5.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$5.98 (bear case) to C$14.14 (bull case); at C$43.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 111% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -54% fair-value upside, at -77%, FM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (C$13.13) versus Earnings-Based (C$1.25). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
First Quantum Minerals Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral properties. It primarily explores for copper, gold, nickel, silver, and zinc products. Its flagship project is the 100% owned Kansanshi project located in the northwestern Province of Zambia.
Full company description
First Quantum Minerals Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral properties. It primarily explores for copper, gold, nickel, silver, and zinc products. Its flagship project is the 100% owned Kansanshi project located in the northwestern Province of Zambia. The company was formerly known as First Quantum Ventures Ltd. and changed its name to First Quantum Minerals Ltd. in July 1996. The company was incorporated in 1983 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
First Quantum Minerals Ltd reported revenue of C$5.2B in FY2025 versus C$7.2B in FY2021, a compound −7.7%/yr. Reported net income was −C$28.0M in FY2025.
FM screens 77% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- First Quantum Minerals Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FQVLF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Copper Production ...
- First Quantum Minerals (FQVLF) Reports Q2 Loss, Beats Revenue Estimates
- First Quantum Minerals Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
Peer Group
Copper · 59 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $194.89 | $85.17 | -56% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $69.22 | $22.81 | -67% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$36.91 | C$18.67 | -49% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥46.47 | ¥35.19 | -24% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥6.63 | ¥3.06 | -54% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$38.79 | C$21.25 | -45% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥19.38 | ¥6.39 | -67% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CSC | A$15.85 | A$7.28 | -54% |
| Yunnan Copper Co 000878 | ¥16.68 | ¥7.46 | -55% |
| Sandfire Resources Limited SFR | A$21.57 | A$3.39 | -84% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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