First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of First Quantum Minerals Ltd stock C$19.89, price C$35.97, upside -44.7%, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$9.65 – C$48.69 · fair‑value band C$8.80 – C$37.98 · the C$35.97 price screens above the C$19.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
Follow First Quantum Minerals in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether First Quantum Minerals is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral properties. It primarily explores for copper, gold, nickel, silver, and zinc products.
Show moreShow less
Its flagship project is the 100% owned Kansanshi project located in the northwestern Province of Zambia. The company was formerly known as First Quantum Ventures Ltd. and changed its name to First Quantum Minerals Ltd. in July 1996.
The company was incorporated in 1983 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM) currently trades at C$35.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$19.89, 44.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$19.89 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the C$35.97 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$12.32, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$8.80 (bear) to C$37.98 (bull), the price of C$35.97 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd reported revenue of $5.2B in FY2025 versus $7.2B in FY2021, a compound −7.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$28.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$30.0B (≈ $21.4B) Large · P/S ratio 5.25 · EPS (TTM) C$−0.1400 · Net margin −1.4% · Return on equity −1.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% · Operating margin 10.3% · Revenue (TTM) $5.7B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −45%, FM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$8.80Fair Value C$19.89BullC$37.98
Price C$35.97 · Upside -44.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.50/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
13.7% (2020) → 18.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+30.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +31.2% a year for the price and +27.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Commodity exposure and thin profitability limit any durable advantages, while sustained net losses and high leverage stand out as the central weaknesses.
Main risk: Failure to reach an agreement on restarting Cobre Panama would cut output and revenues at the company's main production asset.
First Quantum's Cobre Panama mine remains shut after the 2023 court ruling, yet a recent government commission now recommends formal talks on a restart that would finance its eventual orderly closure with no extensions allowed. Any agreement must also end the pending international arbitrations while meeting strict environmental and sovereignty conditions. Will the company reach terms that allow production to resume at scale or stay locked in a drawn-out process?
Compare First Quantum Minerals Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 56 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Below median
Fair Value upside−44.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−0.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−1.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)10.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)24.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.91× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)3.72× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow46.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA15.8× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.96× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)77· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$19.89 versus a price of C$35.97, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FM?
Our model-based fair value for First Quantum Minerals Ltd is C$19.89 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$35.97.
What is the quality score of FM?
First Quantum Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$19.89 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$8.80, optimistic scenario C$37.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the First Quantum Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$19.89, about −45% upside versus a price of C$35.97 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$8.80, optimistic scenario C$37.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
First Quantum Minerals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, First Quantum Minerals Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +34.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.7 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FM use?
Our models discount First Quantum Minerals Ltd at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 2.06, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For First Quantum Minerals Ltd that is +34.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at First Quantum Minerals Ltd grew +0.7 % a year. The price currently implies +34.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into First Quantum Minerals Ltd (+34.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.16 %: that much free cash flow First Quantum Minerals Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First Quantum Minerals Ltd it is C$19.89 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of C$35.97. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is First Quantum Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, FM trades above its calculated fair value: price C$35.97, fair value C$19.89, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$35.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$19.89). For First Quantum Minerals Ltd the two are C$16.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is First Quantum Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values First Quantum Minerals Ltd at about C$30.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is C$35.97; our models calculate a fair value of C$19.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FM?
Our models span a range for First Quantum Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario C$8.80, base C$19.89, optimistic C$37.98 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price C$35.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of FM?
The PEG ratio of First Quantum Minerals Ltd is 0.96 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
Balance-sheet figures for First Quantum Minerals Ltd (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity −1.2%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FM from its 52-week high?
First Quantum Minerals Ltd trades at C$35.97, about 26% below its 52-week high of C$48.69 and 30% above the low of C$27.62 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$19.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to First Quantum Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, Lundin Mining Corporation, Jiangxi Copper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is First Quantum Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price C$35.97, calculated fair value C$19.89 (−45%), Quality Score 39/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FM calculated?
We run First Quantum Minerals Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$19.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.1 % above its aggregate fair value. First Quantum Minerals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was C$35.97. Our model-based fair value is C$19.89, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with First Quantum Minerals Ltd right now?
Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (C$8.80 to C$37.98). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of First Quantum Minerals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
The market capitalisation of First Quantum Minerals Ltd is C$30.0B (≈ $21.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of First Quantum Minerals Ltd is 5.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
Earnings per share at First Quantum Minerals Ltd are C$−0.1400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
The net margin of First Quantum Minerals Ltd is −1.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of First Quantum Minerals Ltd is −1.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First Quantum Minerals Ltd is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
The operating margin of First Quantum Minerals Ltd is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
Revenue at First Quantum Minerals Ltd is growing +24.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
Earnings per share at First Quantum Minerals Ltd are growing +700% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM) carry?
The net debt of First Quantum Minerals Ltd is $5.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch First Quantum Minerals Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts First Quantum Minerals Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 28,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Oct 22, 2026