AXA SA (CS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of AXA SA stock €35.31, price €42.02, upside -16.0%, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €16.18 – €45.57 · fair‑value band €28.96 – €48.53 · the €42.02 price screens above the €35.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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AXA SA, through its subsidiaries, insurance, asset management, and banking services worldwide. The company operates through France, Europe, AXA XL, Asia, Africa & EME-LATAM, and Transversal & Other segments. It offers life and savings insurance and property and casualty insurance products.
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The company also provides protection and retirement products for individual and professional customers; reinsurance coverages; property, primary and excess casualty, excess and surplus lines, environmental liability, professional liability, construction, marine, energy, aviation and satellite, fine art and specie, livestock and aquaculture, accident and health, and crisis management.
In addition, it offers reinsurance solutions with casualty, property risk, property catastrophe, specialty, and other reinsurance; proportional and non-proportional, and facultative reinsurance; risk management solutions and consulting services; integrated ecosystem between healthcare solutions and the insurance coverage, which includes onsite services in clinics, remote teleconsultation and digital services, and home services; travel insurance and assistance services, as well as AXA Multilink platform, a B2B2C platform; Sophia, the customer facing GenAI chatbot; and EMMA, a digital assistant.
Further, the company offers motor, household, property and general liability, banking, savings, health, term life, whole life, universal life, endowment, deferred and immediate annuities, and other investment-based products for retail/individual and commercial/group customers.
AXA SA was founded in 1852 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Stock analysis
AXA SA (CS) currently trades at €42.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €35.31, 16.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €35.31 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the €42.02 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €8.01, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €28.96 (bear) to €48.53 (bull), the price of €42.02 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
AXA SA reported revenue of €116B in FY2025 versus €122B in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was €9.8B in FY2025, compounding +7.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €85.6B Large · P/E ratio 11.3 · P/S ratio 0.99 · EPS (TTM) €3.71 · Dividend yield 5.5% · Net margin 10.4% · Return on equity 14.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −16%, CS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€28.96Fair Value €35.31Bull€48.53
Price €42.02 · Upside -16.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.12 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.0% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+20.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.8% vs 7.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.2% a year for the price and +1.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The diversified insurance model draws strength from organic growth and AI scaling across underwriting and claims, yet its main weakness is elevated leverage with debt exceeding equity that limits durable advantage signals.
Main risk: Softening conditions in commercial insurance represent the biggest risk to AXA's underwriting results and would hit margins in the diversified insurance book.
AXA's new three-year plan focuses on organic growth and scaling AI across underwriting and claims to generate hundreds of millions in annual benefits. The group also plans to keep a high payout ratio while remitting substantial cash from operations. Will those efficiency gains strengthen the diversified model more than softening conditions in commercial insurance test it?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside−16.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.9% · Above median
Return on assets1.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)10.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.28× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AXA SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CS
Frequently asked questions
Is AXA SA (CS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €35.31 versus a price of €42.02, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CS?
Our model-based fair value for AXA SA is €35.31 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €42.02.
What is the quality score of CS?
AXA SA has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AXA SA (CS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €35.31 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €28.96, optimistic scenario €48.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AXA SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €35.31, about −16% upside versus a price of €42.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €28.96, optimistic scenario €48.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AXA SA (CS)?
AXA SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €96.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does AXA SA pay a dividend?
AXA SA currently shows a dividend yield of 5.52% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into AXA SA (CS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AXA SA would have to grow free cash flow by -14.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.6 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CS use?
Our models discount AXA SA at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AXA SA that is -14.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AXA SA (CS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AXA SA grew +0.6 % a year. The price currently implies -14.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AXA SA (CS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AXA SA (-14.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AXA SA (CS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.60 %: that much free cash flow AXA SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AXA SA (CS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AXA SA it is €35.31 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of €42.02. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AXA SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, CS trades above its calculated fair value: price €42.02, fair value €35.31, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€42.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€35.31). For AXA SA the two are €6.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AXA SA worth?
The market values AXA SA at about €85.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is €42.02; our models calculate a fair value of €35.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CS?
Our models span a range for AXA SA: cautious scenario €28.96, base €35.31, optimistic €48.53 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price €42.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CS?
AXA SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.3 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €35.31 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 9.6. Other multiples: PEG 19.6, P/B 2.0, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 11.2.
What is the PEG ratio of CS?
The PEG ratio of AXA SA is 19.60 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of AXA SA (CS)?
Balance-sheet figures for AXA SA (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 14.9%, debt of 1.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CS from its 52-week high?
AXA SA trades at €42.02, about 8% below its 52-week high of €45.57 and 19% above the low of €35.34 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €35.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AXA SA?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, Sun Life Financial Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AXA SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price €42.02, calculated fair value €35.31 (−16%), Quality Score 64/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CS calculated?
We run AXA SA through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €35.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.1 % above its aggregate fair value. AXA SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AXA SA (CS)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was €42.02. Our model-based fair value is €35.31, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AXA SA right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of AXA SA (CS) come from?
Earnings per share at AXA SA grew +6.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.2 %, EBIT margin +4.4 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AXA SA
How large is the market capitalisation of AXA SA (CS)?
The market capitalisation of AXA SA is €85.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AXA SA (CS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AXA SA is 0.99 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AXA SA (CS)?
Earnings per share at AXA SA are €3.71 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AXA SA (CS)?
The dividend yield of AXA SA is 5.5% (payout 62.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AXA SA (CS)?
The net margin of AXA SA is 10.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AXA SA (CS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AXA SA is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AXA SA (CS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AXA SA is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AXA SA (CS)?
The operating margin of AXA SA is 12.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AXA SA (CS)?
Revenue at AXA SA is growing +4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AXA SA (CS)?
Earnings per share at AXA SA are growing +13.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does AXA SA (CS) hold?
AXA SA holds more cash than debt, €6.4B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026