Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $35.5B
Arch Capital Group
ACGL · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $163.68 to $124.45 (−24.0%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −3.4% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 27% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $35.01 – $109.22 · fair‑value band $93.34 – $155.56 · the $98.03 price screens below the $124.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Arch Capital Group (ACGL) currently trades at $98.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $124.45, implying the stock looks roughly 27.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Arch Capital Group generated revenue of $19.8B at a net margin of 24.6%. Revenue declined 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.3%. Net debt stands at $1.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $93.34 (bear case) to $155.56 (bull case); at $98.03, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at 27%, ACGL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($120.73) versus Dividend Discount ($2.17). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage.
Full company description
Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines; property and short-tail specialty; workers compensation; and casualty insurance. Its Reinsurance segment provides reinsurance products for casualty; marine and aviation; property catastrophe; property excluding property catastrophe; and other specialty products. The Mortgage segment offers U.S. primary mortgage insurance business written predominantly on loans sold to the Federal National Mortgage Association and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation; reinsurance and underwriting services related to the U.S. credit-risk transfer business and other U.S. mortgage reinsurance transactions; and international mortgage insurance and reinsurance business covering loans. It markets its products through a group of licensed independent retail and wholesale brokers. The company was formerly known as Risk Capital Holdings, Inc. Arch Capital Group Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Arch Capital Group reported revenue of $19.9B in FY2025 versus $8.9B in FY2021, a compound +22.2%/yr. Reported net income was $4.4B in FY2025, compounding +19.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +16.8 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Top Research Reports for Amazon, Marvell & Starbucks
- Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Could Be 9% Below Fair Value After Earnings
Peer Group
Insurance - Diversified · 84 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB | 8,562 MXN | 10,429 MXN | +22% |
| Allianz SE ALV | €437.80 | €266.04 | -39% |
| Zurich Insurance Group ZURN | CHF 589.20 | CHF 392.99 | -33% |
| AXA SA AXAN | 888.28 MXN | 623.98 MXN | -30% |
| Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G | €43.88 | €13.91 | -68% |
| BB Seguridade Participações S.A BBSE3 | R$37.26 | R$33.94 | -9% |
| Tryg A/S TRYG | kr 151.70 | kr 67.88 | -55% |
| PT Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk SMMA | 20,175 IDR | 4,617 IDR | -77% |
| ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company ICICIGI | ₹1,635 | ₹589.67 | -64% |
| The New India Assurance Company NIACL | ₹181.09 | ₹128.57 | -29% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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