Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $35.5B · ISIN BMG0450A1053
What is Arch Capital Group Ltd. really worth?
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
ACGL · US
A solid business, trading 20% below our fair value of $124.45.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price +0.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $35.01 – $109.22 · fair‑value band $93.34 – $155.56 · the $99.83 price screens below the $124.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) currently trades at $99.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $124.45, implying the stock looks roughly 19.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $120.73 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $99.83 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $46.42, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Arch Capital Group Ltd. generated revenue of $19.8B at a net margin of 24.6%. Revenue declined 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.3%. Net debt stands at $1.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $93.34 (bear case) to $155.56 (bull case); at $99.83, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 25%, ACGL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $8.66 per share, which is 7.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($120.73) versus Dividend Discount ($2.17). Highest evidence: DDM Multi-Stage (67).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage.
Full company description
Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines; property and short-tail specialty; workers compensation; and casualty insurance. Its Reinsurance segment provides reinsurance products for casualty; marine and aviation; property catastrophe; property excluding property catastrophe; and other specialty products. The Mortgage segment offers U.S. primary mortgage insurance business written predominantly on loans sold to the Federal National Mortgage Association and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation; reinsurance and underwriting services related to the U.S. credit-risk transfer business and other U.S. mortgage reinsurance transactions; and international mortgage insurance and reinsurance business covering loans. It markets its products through a group of licensed independent retail and wholesale brokers. The company was formerly known as Risk Capital Holdings, Inc. Arch Capital Group Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Arch Capital Group Ltd. reported revenue of $19.9B in FY2025 versus $8.9B in FY2021, a compound +22.2%/yr. Reported net income was $4.4B in FY2025, compounding +19.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +16.8 % · buybacks/dilution +0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Why Is Arch Capital (ACGL) Down 3.7% Since Last Earnings Report?
- ACGL's Insurance Segment Faces Competitive and Margin Pressures
- Arch Capital’s (ACGL) Valuation Supports Strategic Capital Allocation
Peer Group
Insurance - Diversified · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB80 | 1.67 THB | 1.48 THB | −11% |
| Allianz SE ALV | €453.00 | €266.04 | −41% |
| Zurich Insurance Group ZURN | CHF 596.00 | CHF 335.07 | −44% |
| AXA SA CS | €43.61 | €39.90 | −9% |
| Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G | €44.11 | €10.92 | −75% |
| Sun Life Financial Inc SLF | C$108.85 | C$57.05 | −48% |
| American International Group AIG | $76.14 | $80.91 | +6% |
| The Hartford Insurance Group HIG | $137.38 | $133.10 | −3% |
| Swiss Life Holding SLHN | CHF 919.00 | CHF 425.23 | −54% |
| Sampo Oyj SAMPO | €9.68 | €6.06 | −37% |
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