American International Group Inc (AIG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of American International Group Inc stock $71.45, price $81.75, upside -12.6%, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $41.63 – $84.95 · fair‑value band $64.61 – $81.86 · the $81.75 price screens above the $71.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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American International Group, Inc. provides insurance products for commercial, institutional, and individual customers in North America and internationally. It operates through three segments: North America Commercial, International Commercial, and Global Personal.
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The company offers commercial and industrial property insurance, including business interruption and package insurance that cover exposure to made and natural disasters; general liability, environmental, commercial automobile liability, workers' compensation, excess casualty, and crisis management insurance products; risk-sharing and other customized structured programs for large corporate and multinational customers; professional liability insurance; and marine, energy-related property insurance products, aviation, political risk, trade credit, and trade finance products.
It also provides group personal accident and business travel products for employees, associations, and other organizations; voluntary and sponsor-paid personal accident and supplemental health products for individuals; and personal auto and homeowners in selected markets, comprehensive extended warranty, device protection insurance, home warranty and related services, and insurance for high net-worth individuals.
In addition, the company offers mortgage and other loans receivable, such as commercial mortgages, life insurance policy loans, commercial loans, and other loans and notes receivable. American International Group, Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
American International Group Inc (AIG) currently trades at $81.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $71.45, 12.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $76.97 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $81.75 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $33.77, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $64.61 (bear) to $81.86 (bull), the price of $81.75 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
American International Group Inc reported revenue of $26.8B in FY2025 versus $52.0B in FY2021, a compound −15.3%/yr. Reported net income was $3.1B in FY2025, compounding −26.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $44.0B Large · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 1.64 · EPS (TTM) $5.46 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 11.1% · Return on equity 7.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −13%, AIG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$64.61Fair Value $71.45Bull$81.86
Price $81.75 · Upside -12.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.92 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −7.6% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7.2% vs 4.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−17% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −22.1% a year for the price and +4.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Moderate scale advantages support operations in diversified insurance yet are offset by weak pricing power and limited innovation in a competitive sector with historical governance concerns.
Main risk: Softening property pricing threatens to pressure underwriting results and margins despite the emphasis on disciplined underwriting.
AIG is promoting its global chief actuary to chief risk officer effective mid-October, bringing internal actuarial depth to enterprise risk oversight. This follows several other leadership shifts under the new CEO while the insurer stresses disciplined underwriting amid softening property pricing. Does the continuity in technical expertise strengthen risk management more than an external perspective would, or does it reflect challenges in attracting outside talent?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−12.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.2% · Below median
Return on assets1.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)11.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)19.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "American International Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AIG
Frequently asked questions
Is American International Group Inc (AIG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $71.45 versus a price of $81.75, about −13% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AIG?
Our model-based fair value for American International Group Inc is $71.45 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $81.75.
What is the quality score of AIG?
American International Group Inc has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for American International Group Inc (AIG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $71.45 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $64.61, optimistic scenario $81.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the American International Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $71.45, about −13% upside versus a price of $81.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $64.61, optimistic scenario $81.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of American International Group Inc (AIG)?
American International Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $26.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does American International Group Inc pay a dividend?
American International Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.26% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into American International Group Inc (AIG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, American International Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -20.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -9.4 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AIG use?
Our models discount American International Group Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For American International Group Inc that is -20.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has American International Group Inc (AIG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at American International Group Inc grew -9.4 % a year. The price currently implies -20.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of American International Group Inc (AIG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into American International Group Inc (-20.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of American International Group Inc (AIG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.54 %: that much free cash flow American International Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of American International Group Inc (AIG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For American International Group Inc it is $71.45 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $81.75. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is American International Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, AIG trades above its calculated fair value: price $81.75, fair value $71.45, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AIG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($81.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($71.45). For American International Group Inc the two are $10.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is American International Group Inc worth?
The market values American International Group Inc at about $44.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $81.75; our models calculate a fair value of $71.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AIG?
Our models span a range for American International Group Inc: cautious scenario $64.61, base $71.45, optimistic $81.86 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $81.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AIG?
American International Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $71.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 1.1, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 6.4.
What is the PEG ratio of AIG?
The PEG ratio of American International Group Inc is 0.64 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of American International Group Inc (AIG)?
Balance-sheet figures for American International Group Inc (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 7.2%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AIG from its 52-week high?
American International Group Inc trades at $81.75, about 4% below its 52-week high of $84.95 and 16% above the low of $70.53 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $71.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to American International Group Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is American International Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $81.75, calculated fair value $71.45 (−13%), Quality Score 61/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AIG calculated?
We run American International Group Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $71.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.1 % above its aggregate fair value. American International Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of American International Group Inc (AIG)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $81.75. Our model-based fair value is $71.45, about −13% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with American International Group Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of American International Group Inc (AIG) come from?
Earnings per share at American International Group Inc grew +4.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.5 %, EBIT margin +1.0 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of American International Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of American International Group Inc (AIG)?
The market capitalisation of American International Group Inc is $44.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of American International Group Inc (AIG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of American International Group Inc is 1.64 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of American International Group Inc (AIG)?
Earnings per share at American International Group Inc are $5.46 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of American International Group Inc (AIG)?
The dividend yield of American International Group Inc is 2.3% (payout 33.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of American International Group Inc (AIG)?
The net margin of American International Group Inc is 11.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of American International Group Inc (AIG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of American International Group Inc is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of American International Group Inc (AIG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of American International Group Inc is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of American International Group Inc (AIG)?
The operating margin of American International Group Inc is 19.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at American International Group Inc (AIG)?
Revenue at American International Group Inc is growing +0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at American International Group Inc (AIG)?
Earnings per share at American International Group Inc are growing −10.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does American International Group Inc (AIG) carry?
The net debt of American International Group Inc is $7.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026