Allianz SE (ALV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Allianz SE stock €229, price €433, upside -47.0%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €131.74 – €453.30 · fair‑value band €189.51 – €322.41 · the €432.60 price screens above the €229.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
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Allianz SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides property-casualty insurance, life/health insurance, and asset management products and services worldwide.
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The company's Property-Casualty segment offers various insurance products, including motor liability, accident, fire and property, general liability, credit, and travel, and assistance services to private and corporate customers.
Its Life/Health segment provides a range of life and health insurance products on an individual and a group basis, such as annuities, endowment and term insurance, and unit-linked and investment-oriented products, as well as private and supplemental health, and long-term care insurance products.
The company's Asset Management segment offers institutional and retail asset management products and services to third-party investors comprising equity and fixed income funds, cash, and multi-assets; and alternative investment products that include real estate, infrastructure debt/equity, real assets, liquid alternatives, and solutions business.
In addition, it provides banking services for retail clients; and digital investment services. Allianz SE was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany.
Stock analysis
Allianz SE (ALV) currently trades at €432.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €229.28, 47.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €229.28 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the €432.60 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €77.90, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €189.51 (bear) to €322.41 (bull), the price of €432.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Allianz SE VNA O.N. reported revenue of €138B in FY2025 versus €110B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was €10.8B in FY2025, compounding +13.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €165B Large · P/E ratio 13.9 · P/S ratio 1.38 · EPS (TTM) €30.50 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 9.9% · Return on equity 19.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −47%, ALV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€189.51Fair Value €229.28Bull€322.41
Price €432.60 · Upside -47.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€10.83 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.5% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.7% vs 7.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−17.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −18.7% a year for the price and +5.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Diversified insurance operations deliver a moderate moat via scale and cash conversion, yet limited evidence on human capital innovation and regulatory constraints leave durable advantage uncertain.
Main risk: Elevated business interruption claims, driven by longer recoveries and supply chain issues, threaten to pressure underwriting margins in the commercial insurance book.
Allianz Commercial's recent analysis shows business interruption claims averaging over 70 percent higher than typical property damage ones, driven by longer recoveries and supply chain factors. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the group's diversified insurance book and pricing discipline contain these rising costs, or will they increasingly pressure underwriting results?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−47.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)19.6% · Above median
Return on assets1.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)9.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)13.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.52× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)13.9× · Pricier than median
P/B2.64× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.38× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow5.3× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA7.8× · Cheaper than median
PEG2.94× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)61· sector 39
PAST (return on equity)78· sector 53
HEALTH (low debt)74· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)79· sector 71
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Allianz SE VNA O.N. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALV
Frequently asked questions
Is Allianz SE (ALV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €229.28 versus a price of €432.60, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALV?
Our model-based fair value for Allianz SE VNA O.N. is €229.28 (as of Oct 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €432.60.
What is the quality score of ALV?
Allianz SE VNA O.N. has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Allianz SE (ALV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €229.28 (as of Oct 21, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €189.51, optimistic scenario €322.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Allianz SE VNA O.N. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €229.28, about −47% upside versus a price of €432.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €189.51, optimistic scenario €322.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Allianz SE (ALV)?
Allianz SE VNA O.N. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €119B (latest available figure, as of Oct 21, 2026).
Does Allianz SE VNA O.N. pay a dividend?
Allianz SE VNA O.N. currently shows a dividend yield of 3.95% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 21, 2026).
What growth is priced into Allianz SE (ALV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Allianz SE VNA O.N. would have to grow free cash flow by -17.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.0 % per year. As of Oct 21, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALV use?
Our models discount Allianz SE VNA O.N. at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.69, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Allianz SE VNA O.N. that is -17.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Allianz SE (ALV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Allianz SE VNA O.N. grew +3.0 % a year. The price currently implies -17.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Allianz SE (ALV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Allianz SE VNA O.N. (-17.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Allianz SE (ALV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.06 %: that much free cash flow Allianz SE VNA O.N. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Allianz SE (ALV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Allianz SE VNA O.N. it is €229.28 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026), against a price of €432.60. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Allianz SE VNA O.N. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 21, 2026, ALV trades above its calculated fair value: price €432.60, fair value €229.28, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€432.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€229.28). For Allianz SE VNA O.N. the two are €203.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Allianz SE VNA O.N. worth?
The market values Allianz SE VNA O.N. at about €165B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 21, 2026). Per share that is €432.60; our models calculate a fair value of €229.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALV?
Our models span a range for Allianz SE VNA O.N.: cautious scenario €189.51, base €229.28, optimistic €322.41 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026, price €432.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALV?
Allianz SE VNA O.N. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.9 (as of Oct 21, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €229.28 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 11.9. Other multiples: PEG 2.9, P/B 2.6, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 7.8.
What is the PEG ratio of ALV?
The PEG ratio of Allianz SE VNA O.N. is 2.94 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 21, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Allianz SE (ALV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Allianz SE VNA O.N. (as of Oct 21, 2026): return on equity 19.6%, debt of 0.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALV from its 52-week high?
Allianz SE VNA O.N. trades at €432.60, about 5% below its 52-week high of €453.30 and 31% above the low of €329.06 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €229.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Allianz SE VNA O.N.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, Sun Life Financial Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Allianz SE VNA O.N. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 21, 2026: price €432.60, calculated fair value €229.28 (−47%), Quality Score 59/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALV calculated?
We run Allianz SE VNA O.N. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €229.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Allianz SE VNA O.N. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Allianz SE (ALV)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was €432.60. Our model-based fair value is €229.28, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Allianz SE VNA O.N. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€322.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Allianz SE (ALV) come from?
Earnings per share at Allianz SE VNA O.N. grew +6.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.5 %, EBIT margin +0.8 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Allianz SE VNA O.N.
How large is the market capitalisation of Allianz SE (ALV)?
The market capitalisation of Allianz SE VNA O.N. is €165B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Allianz SE (ALV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Allianz SE VNA O.N. is 1.38 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Allianz SE (ALV)?
Earnings per share at Allianz SE VNA O.N. are €30.50 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Allianz SE (ALV)?
The dividend yield of Allianz SE VNA O.N. is 4.0% (payout 56.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Allianz SE (ALV)?
The net margin of Allianz SE VNA O.N. is 9.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Allianz SE (ALV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Allianz SE VNA O.N. is 19.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Allianz SE (ALV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Allianz SE VNA O.N. is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Allianz SE (ALV)?
The operating margin of Allianz SE VNA O.N. is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Allianz SE (ALV)?
Revenue at Allianz SE VNA O.N. is growing +12.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Allianz SE (ALV)?
Earnings per share at Allianz SE VNA O.N. are growing −8.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Allianz SE (ALV) hold?
Allianz SE VNA O.N. holds more cash than debt, €1.2B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 21, 2026