Allianz SE (ALV) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · DE · Market cap €160B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from €369.31 to €266.04 (−28.0%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price +4.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 39% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€332.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €131.74 – €440.70 · fair‑value band €199.53 – €332.56 · the €437.80 price screens above the €266.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Allianz SE (ALV) currently trades at €437.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €266.04, implying the stock looks roughly 39.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Allianz SE generated revenue of €115B at a net margin of 10.4%. Revenue grew 8.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €1.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €199.53 (bear case) to €332.56 (bull case); at €437.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -39%, ALV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€231.52) versus Asset-Based (€110.80). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Allianz SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides property-casualty insurance, life/health insurance, and asset management products and services worldwide.
Full company description
Allianz SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides property-casualty insurance, life/health insurance, and asset management products and services worldwide. The company's Property-Casualty segment offers various insurance products, including motor liability, accident, fire and property, general liability, credit, and travel, and assistance services to private and corporate customers. Its Life/Health segment provides a range of life and health insurance products on an individual and a group basis, such as annuities, endowment and term insurance, and unit-linked and investment-oriented products, as well as private and supplemental health, and long-term care insurance products. The company's Asset Management segment offers institutional and retail asset management products and services to third-party investors comprising equity and fixed income funds, cash, and multi-assets; and alternative investment products that include real estate, infrastructure debt/equity, real assets, liquid alternatives, and solutions business. In addition, it provides banking services for retail clients; and digital investment services. Allianz SE was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Allianz SE reported revenue of €138B in FY2025 versus €110B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was €10.8B in FY2025, compounding +13.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.6 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ALV screens 39% overvalued. Compare with Berkshire Hathaway Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Vistry shares dive as Allianz cuts insurance cover for suppliers
- Allianz (XTRA:ALV) Holds A Growth Narrative, Is The Stock Overvalued?
Peer Group
Insurance - Diversified · 84 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB | 8,562 MXN | 10,429 MXN | +22% |
| Zurich Insurance Group ZURN | CHF 589.20 | CHF 392.99 | -33% |
| AXA SA AXAN | 888.28 MXN | 623.98 MXN | -30% |
| Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G | €43.88 | €13.91 | -68% |
| BB Seguridade Participações S.A BBSE3 | R$37.26 | R$33.94 | -9% |
| Tryg A/S TRYG | kr 151.70 | kr 67.88 | -55% |
| PT Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk SMMA | 20,175 IDR | 4,617 IDR | -77% |
| ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company ICICIGI | ₹1,635 | ₹589.67 | -64% |
| The New India Assurance Company NIACL | ₹181.09 | ₹128.57 | -29% |
| Seoul Guarantee Insurance Co 031210 | 44,150 KRW | 56,679 KRW | +28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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