Talanx AG (TLX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Talanx AG stock €91.88, price €127, upside -27.6%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €29.01 – €128.50 · fair‑value band €67.07 – €116.03 · the €126.90 price screens above the €91.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Talanx AG provides insurance and reinsurance products and services worldwide.
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The company offers life, casualty, third-party liability, space insurance, legal protection, fire, burglary and theft, tap water, plate glass, storm damage, comprehensive householders, comprehensive homeowners, hail, livestock, engineering, omnium, marine, business interruption, travel assistance, aviation and space liability, credit and surety, extended coverage, fire and fire business interruption insurance products, other property, and other non-life products.
It also provides bancassurance activities; motor, life and property, fire, casualty, health, personal accident, and specialty insurance products, unit-linked life, annuity, term life, occupation disability; aviation and agricultural business; coverage for cyber and digital risks; parametric solutions; and structured reinsurance, as well as facultative and nat cat business; and asset management businesses.
In addition, the company offers insurance cover, as well as customized products; and financial services. It has operations in Germany, the United Kingdom, Türkiye, Central and Eastern Europe, Rest of Europe, the United States, Rest of North America, Latin America, Asia, Australia, and Africa.
The company was founded in 1903 and is based in Hanover, Germany. Talanx AG is a subsidiary of HDI Haftpflichtverband der Deutschen Industrie V.a.G.
Stock analysis
Talanx AG (TLX) currently trades at €126.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €91.88, 27.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €91.88 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the €126.90 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €29.12, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €67.07 (bear) to €116.03 (bull), the price of €126.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Talanx AG reported revenue of €57.3B in FY2025 versus €43.1B in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was €2.5B in FY2025, compounding +25.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €32.8B Large · P/E ratio 12.7 · P/S ratio 0.77 · EPS (TTM) €10.02 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 6.1% · Return on equity 20.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −28%, TLX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€67.07Fair Value €91.88Bull€116.03
Price €126.90 · Upside -27.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€5.21 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+123.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+28.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.3% vs 12.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 9%
2025 sits 55% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−21.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
0.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −22.7% a year for the price and −2.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (40 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Talanx shows average positioning in diversified insurance with record results from below-budget claims, yet lacks any clear evidence of a durable competitive moat.
Main risk: Higher losses than budgeted would directly test the raised 2026 profit guidance and pressure underwriting margins in its diversified insurance book.
Talanx posted record first-half net income and lifted its 2026 profit target after large claims stayed below budget. Some analysts have grown more cautious on the valuation following the strong run, while others still see room for further upgrades. Will the November update confirm that favorable claims experience can hold, or will higher losses test the raised guidance?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside−27.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)20.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)9.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)8.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−21.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.59× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)12.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.43× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.21× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow6.5× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA10.0× · Pricier than median
PEG3.17× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 39
PAST (return on equity)81· sector 53
HEALTH (low debt)71· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)57· sector 71
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Talanx AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TLX
Frequently asked questions
Is Talanx AG (TLX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €91.88 versus a price of €126.90, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TLX?
Our model-based fair value for Talanx AG is €91.88 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €126.90.
What is the quality score of TLX?
Talanx AG has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Talanx AG (TLX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €91.88 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €67.07, optimistic scenario €116.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Talanx AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €91.88, about −28% upside versus a price of €126.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €67.07, optimistic scenario €116.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Talanx AG (TLX)?
Talanx AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €42.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Talanx AG pay a dividend?
Talanx AG currently shows a dividend yield of 2.84% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Talanx AG (TLX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Talanx AG would have to grow free cash flow by -21.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.9 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TLX use?
Our models discount Talanx AG at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Talanx AG that is -21.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Talanx AG (TLX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Talanx AG grew +7.9 % a year. The price currently implies -21.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Talanx AG (TLX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Talanx AG (-21.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Talanx AG (TLX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.16 %: that much free cash flow Talanx AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Talanx AG (TLX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Talanx AG it is €91.88 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of €126.90. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Talanx AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, TLX trades above its calculated fair value: price €126.90, fair value €91.88, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TLX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€126.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€91.88). For Talanx AG the two are €35.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Talanx AG worth?
The market values Talanx AG at about €32.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is €126.90; our models calculate a fair value of €91.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TLX?
Our models span a range for Talanx AG: cautious scenario €67.07, base €91.88, optimistic €116.03 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price €126.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TLX?
Talanx AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €91.88 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 11.3. Other multiples: PEG 3.2, P/B 2.4, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
What is the PEG ratio of TLX?
The PEG ratio of Talanx AG is 3.17 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Talanx AG (TLX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Talanx AG (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 20.4%, debt of 0.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TLX from its 52-week high?
Talanx AG trades at €126.90, about 1% below its 52-week high of €128.50 and 30% above the low of €97.95 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €91.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Talanx AG?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Talanx AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price €126.90, calculated fair value €91.88 (−28%), Quality Score 55/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TLX calculated?
We run Talanx AG through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €91.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Talanx AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Talanx AG (TLX)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was €126.90. Our model-based fair value is €91.88, about −28% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Talanx AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€116.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Talanx AG (TLX) come from?
Earnings per share at Talanx AG grew +10.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.4 %, EBIT margin +7.1 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Talanx AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Talanx AG (TLX)?
The market capitalisation of Talanx AG is €32.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Talanx AG (TLX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Talanx AG is 0.77 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Talanx AG (TLX)?
Earnings per share at Talanx AG are €10.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Talanx AG (TLX)?
The dividend yield of Talanx AG is 2.8% (payout 35.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Talanx AG (TLX)?
The net margin of Talanx AG is 6.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Talanx AG (TLX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Talanx AG is 20.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Talanx AG (TLX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Talanx AG is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Talanx AG (TLX)?
The operating margin of Talanx AG is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Talanx AG (TLX)?
Revenue at Talanx AG is growing −21.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +45.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Talanx AG (TLX)?
Earnings per share at Talanx AG are growing −5.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Talanx AG (TLX) carry?
The net debt of Talanx AG is €3.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026