Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group (000630) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 77.6B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +7.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.31 – ¥9.12 · fair‑value band ¥2.30 – ¥3.83 · the ¥6.50 price screens above the ¥3.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group (000630) currently trades at ¥6.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.06, implying the stock looks roughly 52.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group generated revenue of 202B CNY at a net margin of 1.3%. Revenue grew 83.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. Net debt stands at 20.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.30 (bear case) to ¥3.83 (bull case); at ¥6.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 111% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -55% fair-value upside, at -53%, 000630 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥6.00) versus Asset-Based (¥1.85). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.,Ltd. engages in the mining, smelting, beneficiation, processing, and trading of copper. It offers cathode copper, sulfuric acid, gold, silver, copper foil, and copper strip and plates. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Tongling, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group reported revenue of ¥173B in FY2025 versus ¥131B in FY2021, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.4B in FY2025, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −5.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
000630 screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Peer Group
Copper · 59 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $194.89 | $85.17 | -56% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $69.22 | $22.81 | -67% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$36.91 | C$18.67 | -49% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥46.47 | ¥35.19 | -24% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$38.79 | C$21.25 | -45% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥19.38 | ¥6.39 | -67% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CSC | A$15.85 | A$7.28 | -54% |
| Yunnan Copper Co 000878 | ¥16.68 | ¥7.46 | -55% |
| Sandfire Resources Limited SFR | A$21.57 | A$3.39 | -84% |
| China Nonferrous Mining Corporation 1258 | HK$15.14 | HK$1.76 | -88% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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