Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 77.6B CNY (≈ $11.6B) · ISIN CNE000000529
What is Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 109% above our fair value of ¥3.06.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price +0.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.31 – ¥9.12 · fair‑value band ¥2.30 – ¥3.83 · the ¥6.39 price screens above the ¥3.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630) currently trades at ¥6.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.06, implying the stock looks roughly 108.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥6.00 per share, and 5 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥6.39 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.85, and 10 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd generated revenue of 202B CNY at a net margin of 1.3%. Revenue grew 83.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. Net debt stands at 20.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.30 (bear case) to ¥3.83 (bull case); at ¥6.39, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 108% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −52%, 000630 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.0677 per share, which is 2.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥6.00) versus Asset-Based (¥1.85). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.,Ltd. engages in the mining, smelting, beneficiation, processing, and trading of copper. It offers cathode copper, sulfuric acid, gold, silver, copper foil, and copper strip and plates. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Tongling, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 173B CNY in FY2025 versus 131B CNY in FY2021, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B CNY in FY2025, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.3 % · buybacks/dilution −5.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
000630 screens 109% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Peer Group
Copper · 59 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $216.28 | $85.17 | −61% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $75.74 | $22.81 | −70% |
| First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM | C$43.46 | C$16.35 | −62% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$35.76 | C$22.65 | −37% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥45.86 | ¥35.19 | −23% |
| MMG Limited 1208 | HK$9.08 | HK$5.29 | −42% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$38.79 | C$21.25 | −45% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥19.78 | ¥6.39 | −68% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CS | C$14.82 | C$9.91 | −33% |
| Yunnan Copper Co 000878 | ¥17.06 | ¥7.46 | −56% |
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