Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hudbay Minerals Inc. stock $21.25, price $23.99, upside -11.4%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.16 – $31.86 · fair‑value band $8.70 – $26.56 · the $23.99 price screens above the $21.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Hudbay Minerals Inc., a diversified mining company, focuses on the exploration, development, operation, and optimization of properties in North and South America. It primarily explores for copper concentrates containing copper, gold, zinc, molybdenum concentrates, and silver.
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It owns 100% interest in Copper Mountain mine located approximately 20 kilometers south of Princeton, British Columbia, in the Similkameen valley. Hudbay Minerals Inc. was founded in 1927 and is based in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) currently trades at $23.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.25, 11.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $55.12 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the $23.99 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.75, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.70 (bear) to $26.56 (bull), the price of $23.99 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hudbay Minerals Inc. reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was $569M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $10.7B Large · P/E ratio 14.0 · P/S ratio 4.32 · EPS (TTM) $1.71 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 27.5% · Return on equity 16.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −11%, HBM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$8.70Fair Value $21.25Bull$26.56
Price $23.99 · Upside -11.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.37 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.6% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+78.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+64.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+64.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 25%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +29.5% a year for the price and +13.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Gold diversification via the Snow Lake update delivers steady free cash flows to back copper expansion, yet the core business suffers from weak pricing power and limited distinctive advantages as a commoditized producer.
Main risk: Debt levels requiring ongoing monitoring could constrain operational flexibility and the funding of copper expansion projects.
Hudbay updated its Snow Lake mine plan to raise life-of-mine gold production by 60 percent to 2.8 million ounces while extending the reserve life to 2043. The change creates steady free cash flows from gold that back the copper expansion efforts. Our models see it as overvalued. Will the gold diversification offset project risks better than the core copper assets perform?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 56 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Above median
Fair Value upside−11.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.7% · Above median
Return on assets9.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)27.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)32.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hudbay Minerals Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HBM
Frequently asked questions
Is Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.25 versus a price of $23.99, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HBM?
Our model-based fair value for Hudbay Minerals Inc. is $21.25 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $23.99.
What is the quality score of HBM?
Hudbay Minerals Inc. has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.25 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.70, optimistic scenario $26.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hudbay Minerals Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.25, about −11% upside versus a price of $23.99 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.70, optimistic scenario $26.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)?
Hudbay Minerals Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Hudbay Minerals Inc. pay a dividend?
Hudbay Minerals Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.09% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hudbay Minerals Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +32.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.1 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HBM use?
Our models discount Hudbay Minerals Inc. at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 2.33, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hudbay Minerals Inc. that is +32.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hudbay Minerals Inc. grew +15.1 % a year. The price currently implies +32.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hudbay Minerals Inc. (+32.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.05 %: that much free cash flow Hudbay Minerals Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hudbay Minerals Inc. it is $21.25 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $23.99. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hudbay Minerals Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, HBM trades above its calculated fair value: price $23.99, fair value $21.25, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HBM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($23.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.25). For Hudbay Minerals Inc. the two are $2.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hudbay Minerals Inc. worth?
The market values Hudbay Minerals Inc. at about $10.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $23.99; our models calculate a fair value of $21.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HBM?
Our models span a range for Hudbay Minerals Inc.: cautious scenario $8.70, base $21.25, optimistic $26.56 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $23.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HBM?
Hudbay Minerals Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.0 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.25 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 35.8 (reported for FY2025: 16.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 24.3. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 3.3, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
What is the PEG ratio of HBM?
The PEG ratio of Hudbay Minerals Inc. is 2.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hudbay Minerals Inc. (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 16.7%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HBM from its 52-week high?
Hudbay Minerals Inc. trades at $23.99, about 25% below its 52-week high of $31.86 and 65% above the low of $14.57 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hudbay Minerals Inc.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Lundin Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hudbay Minerals Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $23.99, calculated fair value $21.25 (−11%), Quality Score 50/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HBM calculated?
We run Hudbay Minerals Inc. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $21.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hudbay Minerals Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $23.99. Our model-based fair value is $21.25, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hudbay Minerals Inc. right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($8.70 to $26.56). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Hudbay Minerals Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)?
The market capitalisation of Hudbay Minerals Inc. is $10.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hudbay Minerals Inc. is 4.32 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)?
Earnings per share at Hudbay Minerals Inc. are $1.71 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)?
The dividend yield of Hudbay Minerals Inc. is 0.1% (payout 2.6%, on adjusted earnings, reported 1.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)?
The net margin of Hudbay Minerals Inc. is 27.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hudbay Minerals Inc. is 16.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hudbay Minerals Inc. is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)?
The operating margin of Hudbay Minerals Inc. is 32.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)?
Revenue at Hudbay Minerals Inc. is growing +17.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)?
Earnings per share at Hudbay Minerals Inc. are growing +14.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) carry?
The net debt of Hudbay Minerals Inc. is $524M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026