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Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $9.0B · ISIN CA4436281022

What is Hudbay Minerals Inc. really worth?

HM Hudbay Minerals Inc. logo Hudbay Minerals Inc. HBM · US
Price$27.69
Fair Value$21.23
Upside−23.3%
Quality47/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 30% above our fair value of $21.23.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 27.8% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 75/100

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +15.1 %/yr)
!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
!Weak on valuation: 2 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 2 out of 100

For context

·0.08% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $10.04 – $29.42

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $21.77 to $21.23 (−2.5%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price +11.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide ($10.04 to $29.42). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$31.86 $3.16 Fair Value $21.23 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.16 – $31.86 · fair‑value band $10.04 – $29.42 · the $27.69 price screens above the $21.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) currently trades at $27.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.23, implying the stock looks roughly 30.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $55.14 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the $27.69 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.87, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Hudbay Minerals Inc. generated revenue of $2.4B at a net margin of 27.8%. Revenue grew 27.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.5%. Net debt stands at $524M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $10.04 (bear case) to $29.42 (bull case); at $27.69, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 210% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −23%, HBM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.12 per share, which is 5.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV $5.82 $6.73 $7.51 74
FCF DCF $7.16 $10.99 $22.92 73
Growth DCF $6.73 $12.74 $22.43 73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $7.16 $10.99 $22.92 73
Owner Earnings $18.59 $41.12 $86.68 68
5Y Revenue Exit $6.23 $10.82 $20.42 67
5Y EBITDA Exit $14.84 $28.22 $54.53 69
5Y P/E Exit $14.15 $33.81 $60.98 65
10Y Revenue Exit $6.38 $14.06 $18.99 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $12.75 $32.17 $67.27 61
10Y P/E Exit $12.25 $30.72 $61.94 57
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $8.71 $60.72 $85.21 61
Lynch FV $31.37 $44.82 $58.26 59
PEG = 1.0 $31.37 $44.82 $58.26 55
EPV $5.82 $6.73 $7.51 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.1100 $0.2200 $0.3400 64
DDM Multi-Stage $0.1100 $0.1900 $0.2400 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple $16.33 $21.77 $27.21 63
P/S Multiple $5.60 $7.47 $9.34 58
P/B Multiple $16.33 $21.77 $27.21 55
EV/EBIT $13.35 $17.78 $22.21 66
EV/EBITDA $17.33 $23.09 $28.84 67
EV/Revenue $5.30 $7.54 $9.78 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.63 $4.87 $7.26 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $6.73 $12.74 $22.43 73
Rev-Margin DCF $6.88 $12.36 $23.83 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income $8.29 $11.76 $53.82 61
ROIC Compounder $5.82 $6.73 $7.93 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $38.59 $55.14 $71.68 65

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($55.14) versus Dividend Discount ($0.1900). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 16.6
P/S ratio 4.26 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.67 price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.6
Dividend yield 0.1% payout 1.3%
Net margin 25.7% FY2025
Return on equity 19.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 40.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $2.4B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +27.3% 3y avg +14.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +91.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $198M FY2025
Net debt $524M FY2025 · ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53

Profitability 53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 78
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 48
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 63
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 12
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 90
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 14
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Hudbay Minerals Inc., a diversified mining company, focuses on the exploration, development, operation, and optimization of properties in North and South America. It primarily explores for copper concentrates containing copper, gold, zinc, molybdenum concentrates, and silver.

Full company description

Hudbay Minerals Inc., a diversified mining company, focuses on the exploration, development, operation, and optimization of properties in North and South America. It primarily explores for copper concentrates containing copper, gold, zinc, molybdenum concentrates, and silver. It owns 100% interest in Copper Mountain mine located approximately 20 kilometers south of Princeton, British Columbia, in the Similkameen valley. Hudbay Minerals Inc. was founded in 1927 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hudbay Minerals Inc. reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was $569M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$2.2B
Latest YoY
+9.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (27Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+78.3%
Value creation/yr (3Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 3 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+49.4% (49.3 + 0.1)
Revenue +10.1%/yr
FY21 $1.5B
FY22 $1.5B
FY23 $1.7B
FY24 $2.0B
FY25 $2.2B
Net income
FY21 −$244M
FY22 $70.4M
FY23 $66.4M
FY24 $76.7M
FY25 $569M

HBM screens 30% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →

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Hudbay Minerals Inc. · Fair Value
$21.23 −30%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hudbay Minerals Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HBM

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Copper · 59 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 47 · Above median
Fair Value upside −23% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 28% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 40% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 27% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.17× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 2.80× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.81× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 45.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 8.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 2.09× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE2 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 100
PAST78 · sector 34
HEALTH92 · sector 92
DIVIDEND2 · sector 21

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Southern Copper Corporation SCCO $216.28 $85.17 −61%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX $75.74 $22.81 −70%
First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM C$43.46 C$16.35 −62%
Lundin Mining Corporation LUN C$35.76 C$22.65 −37%
Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 ¥45.86 ¥35.19 −23%
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 ¥6.37 ¥3.06 −52%
MMG Limited 1208 HK$9.08 HK$5.29 −42%
Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 ¥19.78 ¥6.39 −68%
Capstone Copper Corp CS C$14.82 C$9.91 −33%
Yunnan Copper Co 000878 ¥17.06 ¥7.46 −56%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.23 versus a price of $27.69, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HBM?
Our model-based fair value for Hudbay Minerals Inc. is $21.23 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $27.69.
What is the quality score of HBM?
Hudbay Minerals Inc. has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)?
Hudbay Minerals Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HBM?
The net profit margin of Hudbay Minerals Inc. is about 27.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 27.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Hudbay Minerals Inc. pay a dividend?
Hudbay Minerals Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.08% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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