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MMG Ltd (1208) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$88.3B (≈ $11.3B) · ISIN HK1208013172

What is MMG Ltd really worth?

ML MMG Ltd 1208 · HK
PriceHK$9.22
Fair ValueHK$4.50
Upside−51.2%
Quality46/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 105% above our fair value of HK$4.50.

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Strengths

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (11/15)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +15.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.2% net margin
!Moderate moat 63/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 1 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$3.37 – HK$5.63

Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 16 days ago

Share price +1.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$5.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$11.37 HK$1.46 Fair Value HK$4.50 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.46 – HK$11.37 · fair‑value band HK$3.37 – HK$5.63 · the HK$9.22 price screens above the HK$4.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

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Analysis

MMG Ltd (1208) currently trades at HK$9.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.50, implying the stock looks roughly 105.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$1.23 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$9.22 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.4800, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, MMG Ltd generated revenue of HK$6.2B at a net margin of 8.2%. Revenue grew 32.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.5%. Net debt stands at HK$3.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$3.37 (bear case) to HK$5.63 (bull case); at HK$9.22, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 165% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −51%, 1208 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0204 per share, which is 0.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (HK$0.0700 to HK$2.95). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$1.20 HK$2.35 HK$4.35 76
Growth DCF HK$1.19 HK$2.24 HK$4.02 75
EPV HK$0.9600 HK$1.15 HK$1.32 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$1.20 HK$2.35 HK$4.35 76
Owner Earnings HK$0.3400 HK$0.7900 HK$1.56 71
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.5900 HK$1.04 HK$1.63 71
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.51 HK$2.95 HK$4.76 73
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.5600 HK$0.9900 HK$1.46 70
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.7700 HK$1.26 HK$1.98 65
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.40 HK$2.66 HK$4.61 66
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.7700 HK$1.23 HK$1.84 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.2700 HK$1.27 HK$1.74 64
Lynch FV HK$0.3300 HK$0.4800 HK$0.6200 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.3300 HK$0.4800 HK$0.6200 57
EPV HK$0.9600 HK$1.15 HK$1.32 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.0400 HK$0.0800 HK$0.1200 67
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.0400 HK$0.0700 HK$0.0800 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.5100 HK$0.6800 HK$0.8400 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.5100 HK$0.6800 HK$0.8400 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.5100 HK$0.6800 HK$0.8400 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.71 HK$2.35 HK$2.99 66
EV/EBITDA HK$1.81 HK$2.48 HK$3.16 67
EV/Revenue HK$0.3100 HK$0.5300 HK$0.7400 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1500 HK$0.2100 HK$0.3100 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.19 HK$2.24 HK$4.02 75
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.5900 HK$1.04 HK$1.63 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.2900 HK$0.3600 HK$0.9300 68
ROIC Compounder HK$1.12 HK$1.57 HK$2.14 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.4800 HK$0.6800 HK$0.8800 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$1.23) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.0700). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 20.8 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 1.71 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0300 price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.8
Dividend yield 0.1% payout 18.4%
Net margin 8.2% FY2025
Return on equity 14.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 14.7% avg 5y
Operating margin 35.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$6.2B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +32.8% 3y avg +24.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +19.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$1.4B FY2025
Net debt HK$3.5B FY2025 · ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 77
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 82
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 27
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 6
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 84
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

MMG Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties. It operates through Las Bambas, Kinsevere, Khoemacau, Dugald River, and Rosebery segments. The company explore for copper, zinc, gold, silver, molybdenum, cobalt, and lead deposits.

Full company description

MMG Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties. It operates through Las Bambas, Kinsevere, Khoemacau, Dugald River, and Rosebery segments. The company explore for copper, zinc, gold, silver, molybdenum, cobalt, and lead deposits. It holds a portfolio of projects in Peru, Australia, Botswana, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. MMG Limited was formerly known as Minmetals Resources Limited and changed its name to MMG Limited in September 2012. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Southbank, Australia. MMG Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Minmetals H.K. (Holdings) Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

MMG Ltd reported revenue of $6.2B in FY2025 versus $4.3B in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was $510M in FY2025, compounding −6.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$6.2B
Latest YoY
+39.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+24.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+2.9% (2.8 + 0.1)
Revenue +10.0%/yr
FY21 $4.3B
FY22 $3.3B
FY23 $4.3B
FY24 $4.5B
FY25 $6.2B
Net income −6.5%/yr
FY21 $667M
FY22 $172M
FY23 $9.0M
FY24 $162M
FY25 $510M

1208 screens 105% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MMG Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1208

Peer Group

Copper · 59 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 46 · Above median
Fair Value upside −51% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Above median
Return on assets 9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 36% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 33% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.74× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.84× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.81× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 8.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.21× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 100
PAST58 · sector 34
HEALTH63 · sector 92
DIVIDEND1 · sector 21

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Southern Copper Corporation SCCO $216.28 $85.17 −61%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX $75.74 $22.81 −70%
First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM C$43.46 C$16.35 −62%
Lundin Mining Corporation LUN C$35.76 C$22.65 −37%
Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 ¥45.86 ¥35.19 −23%
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 ¥6.37 ¥3.06 −52%
Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM C$38.79 C$21.25 −45%
Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 ¥19.78 ¥6.39 −68%
Capstone Copper Corp CS C$14.82 C$9.91 −33%
Yunnan Copper Co 000878 ¥17.06 ¥7.46 −56%

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Frequently asked questions

Is MMG Ltd (1208) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.50 versus a price of HK$9.22, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1208?
Our model-based fair value for MMG Ltd is HK$4.50 (as of Aug 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$9.22.
What is the quality score of 1208?
MMG Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of MMG Ltd (1208)?
MMG Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$6.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 20, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1208?
The net profit margin of MMG Ltd is about 8.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does MMG Ltd pay a dividend?
MMG Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.06% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 20, 2026).
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