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Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $86.9B · ISIN US35671D8570

What is Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc really worth?

FM Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc logo Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc FCX · US
Price$72.56
Fair Value$22.81
Upside−68.6%
Quality53/100

A solid business, but trading 218% above our fair value of $22.81.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 10.3% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.2 %/yr)
!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
!Moderate moat 57/100
!Weak on dividend: 17 out of 100

For context

·0.83% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $11.69 – $32.58

Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Share price +7.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($32.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($11.69 to $32.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$79.91 $23.81 Fair Value $22.81 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $23.81 – $79.91 · fair‑value band $11.69 – $32.58 · the $72.56 price screens above the $22.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX) currently trades at $72.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.81, implying the stock looks roughly 218.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $26.06 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $72.56 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.81, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc generated revenue of $26.4B at a net margin of 10.3%. Revenue grew 8.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.6%. Net debt stands at $8.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $11.69 (bear case) to $32.58 (bull case); at $72.56, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 108% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −69%, FCX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.8730 per share, which is 3.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $4.87 $11.38 $22.04 75
EPV $22.39 $26.88 $30.81 74
Growth DCF $4.91 $11.15 $21.27 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $4.87 $11.38 $22.04 75
5Y Revenue Exit $10.76 $23.10 $39.65 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $25.51 $52.19 $85.10 73
5Y P/E Exit $10.40 $22.39 $35.67 68
10Y Revenue Exit $8.01 $18.95 $35.18 63
10Y EBITDA Exit $18.22 $39.75 $71.65 65
10Y P/E Exit $8.38 $18.44 $31.99 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $10.43 $41.04 $55.73 64
Lynch FV $10.13 $14.47 $18.81 61
PEG = 1.0 $10.13 $14.47 $18.81 57
EPV $22.39 $26.88 $30.81 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $5.52 $11.49 $18.22 66
DDM Multi-Stage $5.52 $9.69 $12.06 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $19.55 $26.06 $32.58 63
P/S Multiple $19.55 $26.06 $32.58 58
P/B Multiple $19.55 $26.06 $32.58 55
EV/EBIT $41.37 $56.69 $72.00 66
EV/EBITDA $39.95 $54.79 $69.64 67
EV/Revenue $14.23 $22.29 $30.35 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.57 $8.81 $13.15 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $4.91 $11.15 $21.27 74
Rev-Margin DCF $10.76 $22.74 $37.39 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income $12.09 $14.10 $26.62 73
ROIC Compounder $25.06 $34.79 $47.51 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $15.97 $22.81 $29.66 67

Widest divergence: Multiples ($26.06) versus Asset-Based ($8.81). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 37.8
P/S ratio 3.24 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.92 price ÷ EPS = P/E 37.8
Dividend yield 0.8% payout 31.3%
Net margin 8.6% FY2025
Return on equity 15.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 13.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 31.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $26.4B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +8.8% 3y avg +3.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +153%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $1.1B FY2025
Net debt $8.1B FY2025 · ≈ 7.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 53
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 26
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 69
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 99
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. engages in the mining of mineral properties in North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals.

Full company description

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. engages in the mining of mineral properties in North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals. Its assets include the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia; Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita, and Miami in Arizona; Chino and Tyrone in New Mexico; and Henderson and Climax in Colorado, North America, as well as Cerro Verde in Peru and El Abra in Chile. The company was formerly known as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and changed its name to Freeport-McMoRan Inc. in July 2014. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc reported revenue of $25.7B in FY2025 versus $22.4B in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.2B in FY2025, compounding −15.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 84/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$25.7B
Latest YoY
+1.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (38Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+6.6% (5.8 + 0.8)
Revenue +3.6%/yr
FY21 $22.4B
FY22 $23.3B
FY23 $22.7B
FY24 $25.5B
FY25 $25.7B
Net income −15.4%/yr
FY21 $4.3B
FY22 $3.5B
FY23 $1.8B
FY24 $1.9B
FY25 $2.2B

FCX screens 218% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →

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Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc · Fair Value
$22.81 −218%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FCX

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Copper · 59 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −69% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 31% · Above median
Revenue growth 9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.53× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 37.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 4.60× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 3.29× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 77.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 9.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG 3.87× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE44 · sector 100
PAST63 · sector 34
HEALTH74 · sector 92
DIVIDEND17 · sector 21

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 42/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Southern Copper Corporation SCCO $216.28 $85.17 −61%
First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM C$43.46 C$16.35 −62%
Lundin Mining Corporation LUN C$35.76 C$22.65 −37%
Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 ¥45.86 ¥35.19 −23%
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 ¥6.37 ¥3.06 −52%
MMG Limited 1208 HK$9.08 HK$5.29 −42%
Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM C$38.79 C$21.25 −45%
Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 ¥19.78 ¥6.39 −68%
Capstone Copper Corp CS C$14.82 C$9.91 −33%
Yunnan Copper Co 000878 ¥17.06 ¥7.46 −56%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.81 versus a price of $72.56, about −69% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FCX?
Our model-based fair value for Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc is $22.81 (as of Sep 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $72.56.
What is the quality score of FCX?
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)?
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $26.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of FCX?
The net profit margin of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc is about 10.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc pay a dividend?
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.83% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 2, 2026).
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