Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc stock $16.51, price $68.90, upside -76.0%, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.70 – $79.74 · fair‑value band $10.44 – $28.37 · the $68.90 price screens above the $16.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Freeport-McMoRan Inc. engages in the mining of mineral properties in North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals.
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Its assets include the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia; Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita, and Miami in Arizona; Chino and Tyrone in New Mexico; and Henderson and Climax in Colorado, North America, as well as Cerro Verde in Peru and El Abra in Chile.
The company was formerly known as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and changed its name to Freeport-McMoRan Inc. in July 2014. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Stock analysis
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX) currently trades at $68.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.51, 76.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $26.09 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $68.90 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.49, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.44 (bear) to $28.37 (bull), the price of $68.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc reported revenue of $25.7B in FY2025 versus $22.4B in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.2B in FY2025, compounding −15.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $99.4B Large · P/E ratio 33.9 · P/S ratio 3.83 · EPS (TTM) $2.03 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 11.4% · Return on equity 14.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −76%, FCX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($2.76 to $41.09). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$10.44Fair Value $16.51Bull$28.37
Price $68.90 · Upside -76.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.16 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 38 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+13.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 24%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+41.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +38.0% a year for the price and +14.7% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Scale may offer some efficiency, yet the business shows a weak overall moat from commodity exposure and high debt relative to equity.
Main risk: Further delays in the Grasberg ramp-up would limit output volumes from this high-grade operation and constrain near-term results.
Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mill is running at roughly two-thirds of normalized rates while the phased recovery from last year’s incident advances. This high-grade operation drives a large share of output, yet material-handling upgrades and block restarts are still needed before it approaches full capacity around the end of 2027. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the ramp-up deliver the projected volumes on schedule or slip further and limit near-term results?
Compare Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 56 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−76.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.8% · Above median
Return on assets7.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)21.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)33.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−7.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)33.9× · Pricier than median
P/B5.26× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)7.24× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow167.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA20.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG4.54× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)59· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)74· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)17· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.51 versus a price of $68.90, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FCX?
Our model-based fair value for Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc is $16.51 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $68.90.
What is the quality score of FCX?
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.51 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.44, optimistic scenario $28.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.51, about −76% upside versus a price of $68.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.44, optimistic scenario $28.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)?
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $25.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc pay a dividend?
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.87% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +41.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.2 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FCX use?
Our models discount Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.39, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc that is +41.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc grew +13.2 % a year. The price currently implies +41.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (+41.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.12 %: that much free cash flow Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc it is $16.51 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $68.90. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, FCX trades above its calculated fair value: price $68.90, fair value $16.51, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FCX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($68.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.51). For Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc the two are $52.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc worth?
The market values Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc at about $99.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $68.90; our models calculate a fair value of $16.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FCX?
Our models span a range for Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc: cautious scenario $10.44, base $16.51, optimistic $28.37 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $68.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FCX?
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.9 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.51 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 23.7 (reported for FY2025: 45.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 12.5. Other multiples: PEG 4.5, P/B 5.3, P/S 7.2, EV/EBITDA 20.9.
What is the PEG ratio of FCX?
The PEG ratio of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc is 4.54 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 14.8%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FCX from its 52-week high?
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc trades at $68.90, about 14% below its 52-week high of $79.74 and 80% above the low of $38.29 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Lundin Mining Corporation, Jiangxi Copper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $68.90, calculated fair value $16.51 (−76%), Quality Score 53/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FCX calculated?
We run Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $68.90. Our model-based fair value is $16.51, about −76% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.37). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($10.44 to $28.37). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)?
The market capitalisation of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc is $99.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc is 3.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)?
Earnings per share at Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc are $2.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)?
The dividend yield of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc is 0.9% (payout 15.5%, on adjusted earnings, reported 29.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)?
The net margin of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc is 11.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc is 13.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)?
The operating margin of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc is 33.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)?
Revenue at Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc is growing −7.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)?
Earnings per share at Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc are growing +28.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX) carry?
The net debt of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc is $8.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026