LUN.TO (LUN) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$29.8B (≈ $21.5B) · ISIN CA5503721063
What is LUN.TO really worth?
A solid business, but trading 87% above our fair value of C$19.25.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −4.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$30.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (C$12.22 to C$30.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$5.71 – C$44.34 · fair‑value band C$12.22 – C$30.23 · the C$35.94 price screens above the C$19.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
LUN.TO (LUN) currently trades at C$35.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$19.25, implying the stock looks roughly 86.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$27.34 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the C$35.94 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at C$2.03, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, LUN.TO generated revenue of C$4.3B at a net margin of 33.6%. Revenue grew 26.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.2%. Net debt stands at C$320M. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$12.22 (bear case) to C$30.23 (bull case); at C$35.94, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 170% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −46%, LUN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly C$1.28 per share, which is 6.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$27.34) versus Dividend Discount (C$2.03). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
Notify me when LUN reaches fair value
Put LUN on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Lundin Mining Corporation, a diversified base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in Chile, Brazil, and Argentina. It explores for copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and other metal deposits. The company was formerly known as South Atlantic Ventures Ltd.
Full company description
Lundin Mining Corporation, a diversified base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in Chile, Brazil, and Argentina. It explores for copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and other metal deposits. The company was formerly known as South Atlantic Ventures Ltd. and changed its name to Lundin Mining Corporation in August 2004. Lundin Mining Corporation was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
LUN.TO reported revenue of $3.8B in FY2025 versus $3.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025, compounding +13.7%/yr from FY2021.
LUN screens 87% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Lundin Mining Announces Updated Share Capital and Provides Update on Share Buybacks
- Lundin Mining Provides Update on Chile Operations After Second Winter Storm
- Lundin Mining's Chile Operations Impacted by Second Severe Winter Storm
- Lundin Mining (TSX:LUN) Restarts Caserones After Chile Storms Cut Power
Peer Group
Copper · 59 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $216.28 | $85.17 | −61% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $75.74 | $22.81 | −70% |
| First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM | C$43.46 | C$16.35 | −62% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥45.86 | ¥35.19 | −23% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥6.37 | ¥3.06 | −52% |
| MMG Limited 1208 | HK$9.08 | HK$5.29 | −42% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$38.79 | C$21.25 | −45% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥19.78 | ¥6.39 | −68% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CS | C$14.82 | C$9.91 | −33% |
| Yunnan Copper Co 000878 | ¥17.06 | ¥7.46 | −56% |
Compare LUN.TO with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is LUN.TO (LUN) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of LUN?
What is the quality score of LUN?
What is the revenue of LUN.TO (LUN)?
What is the net profit margin of LUN?
Does LUN.TO pay a dividend?
Watch LUN.TO in the live analysis
One click puts LUN.TO on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.