Valvoline Inc (VVV) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.9B · ISIN US92047W1018
What is Valvoline Inc really worth?
Valvoline Inc
VVV · US
A solid business, but trading 29% above our fair value of $24.55.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 23, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 13 days ago
Share price −19.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($14.07 to $35.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.96 – $47.60 · fair‑value band $14.07 – $35.11 · the $31.69 price screens above the $24.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
Analysis
Valvoline Inc (VVV) currently trades at $31.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.55, implying the stock looks roughly 29.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $24.57 per share, and 2 of the 22 models we run sit above the $31.69 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $8.75, and 20 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Valvoline Inc generated revenue of $1.9B at a net margin of 5.0%. Revenue grew 25.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 31.8%. Net debt stands at $1.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.07 (bear case) to $35.11 (bull case); at $31.69, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −23%, VVV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 11 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.6966 per share, which is 2.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($24.57) versus Asset-Based ($1.78). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Valvoline Inc. provides automotive preventive maintenance through its retail stores in the United States and Canada. The company offers oil changes; battery, bulb, and wiper replacements; tire rotations; and other maintenance services. It also operates and franchises service centers and retail locations.
Full company description
Valvoline Inc. provides automotive preventive maintenance through its retail stores in the United States and Canada. The company offers oil changes; battery, bulb, and wiper replacements; tire rotations; and other maintenance services. It also operates and franchises service centers and retail locations. The company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Valvoline Inc reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $1.0B in FY2021, a compound +13.3%/yr. Reported net income was $211M in FY2025, compounding −15.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −2.4 % · buybacks/dilution +3.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
VVV screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Carvana Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Valvoline Instant Oil Change℠ Named a Top Franchise Brand for Multi-Unit Growth by Entrepreneur Magazine
- Valvoline Inc. to Participate in Goldman Sachs Global Consumer and Retail Conference
- Valvoline (VVV) Stock Looks Pricey On Earnings But Fair On Broader Checks
- Valvoline (VVV) Launches Refinancing, Is The Stock Still 22% Undervalued?
Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 97 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $74.04 | $17.59 | −76% |
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $219.62 | $217.41 | −1% |
| D'Ieteren Group DIE | €175.00 | €105.40 | −40% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 524.00 TWD | 558.82 TWD | +7% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $62.11 | $29.44 | −53% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $369.61 | $498.50 | +35% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $196.57 | $329.77 | +68% |
| AUTO1 Group AG1 | €21.78 | €5.84 | −73% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $76.27 | $66.27 | −13% |
| Eagers Automotive Limited APE | A$23.44 | A$17.66 | −25% |
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