AUTO1 Group SE (AG1) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · DE · Market cap €5.8B · ISIN DE000A2LQ884
What is AUTO1 Group SE really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 277% above our fair value of €5.84.
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −0.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€7.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.35 – €41.87 · fair‑value band €4.38 – €7.30 · the €22.04 price screens above the €5.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
AUTO1 Group SE (AG1) currently trades at €22.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €5.84, implying the stock looks roughly 277.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €13.34 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the €22.04 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €0.6700, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, AUTO1 Group SE generated revenue of €8.7B at a net margin of 0.9%. Revenue grew 25.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.7%. Net debt stands at €1.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €4.38 (bear case) to €7.30 (bull case); at €22.04, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −74%, AG1 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.2233 per share, which is 3.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€13.34) versus Dividend Discount (€0.0200). Highest evidence: Residual Income (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
AUTO1 Group SE, a technology company, operates a digital automotive platform for buying and selling used cars online in Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Merchant and Retail.
Full company description
AUTO1 Group SE, a technology company, operates a digital automotive platform for buying and selling used cars online in Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Merchant and Retail. It is involved in the operation of AUTO1.com platform for the sale of used cars to commercial dealers; Autohero.com for the sale of used cars to private customers; and wirkaufendeinauto.de, an online platform to sell used cars to AUTO1. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Berlin, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AUTO1 Group SE reported revenue of €8.2B in FY2025 versus €4.8B in FY2021, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was €77.9M in FY2025.
AG1 screens 277% overvalued. Compare with Carvana Co →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AUTO1 Group (ATOGF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Growth in Sales and Profitability
- We Think That There Are Some Issues For AUTO1 Group (ETR:AG1) Beyond Its Promising Earnings
- Earnings Update: AUTO1 Group SE (ETR:AG1) Just Reported Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts
- AUTO1 Group (ATOGF) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Growth in Units Sold and Gross Profit
Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 97 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $74.04 | $17.59 | −76% |
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $219.62 | $217.41 | −1% |
| D'Ieteren Group DIE | €175.00 | €105.40 | −40% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 524.00 TWD | 558.82 TWD | +7% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $62.11 | $29.44 | −53% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $369.61 | $498.50 | +35% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $196.57 | $329.77 | +68% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $76.27 | $66.27 | −13% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $33.96 | $24.55 | −28% |
| Eagers Automotive Limited APE | A$23.44 | A$17.66 | −25% |
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