Carvana Co (CVNA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $72.2B · ISIN US1468691027
What is Carvana Co really worth?
Carvana Co
CVNA · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 391% above our fair value of $14.95.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +7.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($7.25 to $20.33). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7440 – $95.69 · fair‑value band $7.25 – $20.33 · the $73.43 price screens above the $14.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Carvana Co (CVNA) currently trades at $73.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.95, implying the stock looks roughly 391.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $98.25 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $73.43 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.06, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Carvana Co generated revenue of $22.5B at a net margin of 6.4%. Revenue grew 52.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 60.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.7B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.25 (bear case) to $20.33 (bull case); at $73.43, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −80%, CVNA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.16 per share, which is 7.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($98.25) versus Asset-Based ($2.06). Highest evidence: EPV (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars. It provides vehicle acquisition, inspection and reconditioning, online search and shopping experience, financing, complementary products, logistics network and distinctive fulfillment experience, and post-sale customer support services.
Full company description
Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars. It provides vehicle acquisition, inspection and reconditioning, online search and shopping experience, financing, complementary products, logistics network and distinctive fulfillment experience, and post-sale customer support services. The company also operates auction sites. Carvana Co. was founded in 2012 and is based in Tempe, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Carvana Co reported revenue of $20.3B in FY2025 versus $12.8B in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.4B in FY2025.
CVNA screens 391% overvalued. Compare with Penske Automotive Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Carvana Shares Slide as a Federal Probe Into an Outside Billionaire Investor Rattles the Stock
- Why Is Carvana (CVNA) Up 20.6% Since Last Earnings Report?
- Carvana Jumps 5% as Risk Appetite Returns to High-Beta Names; CarMax and Lithia Motors Inch Higher
Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 97 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $219.62 | $217.41 | −1% |
| D'Ieteren Group DIE | €175.00 | €105.40 | −40% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 524.00 TWD | 558.82 TWD | +7% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $62.11 | $29.44 | −53% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $369.61 | $498.50 | +35% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $196.57 | $329.77 | +68% |
| AUTO1 Group AG1 | €21.78 | €5.84 | −73% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $76.27 | $66.27 | −13% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $33.96 | $24.55 | −28% |
| Eagers Automotive Limited APE | A$23.44 | A$17.66 | −25% |
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