Carvana Co (CVNA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Carvana Co is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
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Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $78.8B · ISIN US1468691027
At a glance
CCCarvana CoCVNA · US
Price$70.28
Fair Value$14.95
Upside−78.7%
Quality47/100
Below-average quality, and trading another 370% above our fair value of $14.95.
As of Sep 10, 2026, the fair value of Carvana Co is $14.95 per share against a price of $70.28, so the fair value sits 79% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +29.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.4% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Moderate moat 64/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: MediumRange $7.25 to $20.33
Fair value as of: Sep 10, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −2.4% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
The model range is unusually wide ($7.25 to $20.33). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7440 – $95.69 · fair‑value band $7.25 – $20.33 · the $70.28 price screens above the $14.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 10, 2026.
Carvana Co (CVNA) currently trades at $70.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.95, implying the stock looks roughly 370.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $98.25 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $70.28 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.06, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Carvana Co generated revenue of $22.5B at a net margin of 6.4%. Revenue grew 52.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 60.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.7B. Fundamentals as of Sep 10, 2026
Scenario range: $7.25 (bear) to $20.33 (bull), the price of $70.28 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at −79%, CVNA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.20 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio38.3as of Jul 15, 2026
P/S ratio2.65P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$1.72price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.3
Dividend yield9.6%
Net margin6.9%FY2025
Return on equity60.2%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)1.3%avg 5y
Operating margin9.0%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$22.5BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+52.0%3y avg +14.3%
EPS growth (YoY)+11.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow$889MFY2025
Net cash$1.7BFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 10, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality47/100
Of which business quality 47
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Profitability72
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow40
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum32
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance0
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars. It provides vehicle acquisition, inspection and reconditioning, online search and shopping experience, financing, complementary products, logistics network and distinctive fulfillment experience, and post-sale customer support services.
Full company description
Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars. It provides vehicle acquisition, inspection and reconditioning, online search and shopping experience, financing, complementary products, logistics network and distinctive fulfillment experience, and post-sale customer support services. The company also operates auction sites. Carvana Co. was founded in 2012 and is based in Tempe, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Carvana Co reported revenue of $20.3B in FY2025 versus $12.8B in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.4B in FY2025.
Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$20.3B
Latest YoY
+48.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+29.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (11Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+75.5%
Value creation/yr (3Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 3 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−8.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−17.6%
Dividend yield9.6%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7.1% (2019) → 7.3% (2024) · rising
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How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−80% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)60% · Top 25%
Return on assets11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth52% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)9.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.40× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)38.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B20.98× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.21× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF81.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA31.9× · Priciest 25%
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Carvana Co deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+33.0 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+29.5 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.7 %
FCF yield on price1.13 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models11.5 %
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 31
FUTURE100· sector 11
PAST100· sector 20
HEALTH30· sector 90
DIVIDEND100· sector 68
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 10, 2026).
As of Sep 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.95 versus a price of $70.28, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CVNA?
Our model-based fair value for Carvana Co is $14.95 (as of Sep 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $70.28.
What is the quality score of CVNA?
Carvana Co has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Carvana Co (CVNA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.95 (as of Sep 10, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.25, optimistic scenario $20.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Carvana Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.95, about −79% upside versus a price of $70.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.25, optimistic scenario $20.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Carvana Co (CVNA)?
Carvana Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $22.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 10, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CVNA?
The net profit margin of Carvana Co is about 6.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Carvana Co pay a dividend?
Carvana Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.57% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 10, 2026).
What growth is priced into Carvana Co (CVNA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Carvana Co would have to grow free cash flow by +33.0 % per year for ten years (discount rate 11.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +29.5 % per year. As of Sep 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CVNA use?
Our models discount Carvana Co at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 3.46, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Carvana Co (CVNA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Carvana Co it is $14.95 per share (as of Sep 10, 2026), against a price of $70.28. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Carvana Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 10, 2026, CVNA trades above its calculated fair value: price $70.28, fair value $14.95, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CVNA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($70.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.95). For Carvana Co the two are $55.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Carvana Co worth?
The market values Carvana Co at about $78.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 10, 2026). Per share that is $70.28; our models calculate a fair value of $14.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CVNA?
Our models span a range for Carvana Co: cautious scenario $7.25, base $14.95, optimistic $20.33 per share (as of Sep 10, 2026, price $70.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CVNA?
Carvana Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.3 (as of Sep 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 21.0, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 31.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Carvana Co (CVNA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Carvana Co (as of Sep 10, 2026): return on equity 60.2%, debt of 1.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CVNA from its 52-week high?
Carvana Co trades at $70.28, about 28% below its 52-week high of $97.38 and 29% above the low of $54.46 (as of Sep 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Carvana Co?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Penske Automotive Group, D'Ieteren Group, Hotai Motor Co, CarMax, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Carvana Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 10, 2026: price $70.28, calculated fair value $14.95 (−79%), Quality Score 47/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CVNA calculated?
We run Carvana Co through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Carvana Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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Carvana Co
CVNA · US