Lithia Motors Inc (LAD) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $7.7B · ISIN US5367971034
What is Lithia Motors Inc really worth?
Lithia Motors Inc
LAD · US
Below-average quality, trading 24% below our fair value of $498.50.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +2.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($259.50 to $763.69). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $178.07 – $427.48 · fair‑value band $259.50 – $763.69 · the $378.98 price screens below the $498.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
Lithia Motors Inc (LAD) currently trades at $378.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $498.50, implying the stock looks roughly 24.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $911.66 per share, and 15 of the 23 models we run sit above the $378.98 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $119.57, and 8 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Lithia Motors Inc generated revenue of $37.7B at a net margin of 1.9%. Revenue grew 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.9%. Net debt stands at $14.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $259.50 (bear case) to $763.69 (bull case); at $378.98, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at 32%, LAD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $18.35 per share, which is 3.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($911.66) versus Dividend Discount ($36.67). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Lithia Motors, Inc. operates as an automotive retailer in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Vehicle Operations and Financing Operations.
Full company description
Lithia Motors, Inc. operates as an automotive retailer in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Vehicle Operations and Financing Operations. It offers a range of products and services fulfilling the entire vehicle ownership lifecycle, including new and used vehicles, financing and insurance products, and aftersales automotive repair and maintenance services. The company provides its products and services through a network of physical locations, e-commerce platforms, captive finance solutions, fleet management offerings, and other synergistic adjacencies. Lithia Motors, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Medford, Oregon.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lithia Motors Inc reported revenue of $37.6B in FY2025 versus $22.8B in FY2021, a compound +13.3%/yr. Reported net income was $820M in FY2025, compounding −6.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +19.0 % · buybacks/dilution −0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch LAD: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Lithia & Driveway Invests in More than 200 Youth Nonprofits Nationwide through Lithia4Kids Community Giving Grants
- Lithia Motors (LAD) Down 8.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
- Lithia Motors (LAD) Stock Looks Below Fair Value While Earnings Stay Cheap
- How Hiring Ex-Toyota Financial Chief to Lead Driveway Finance Could Impact Lithia Motors (LAD) Investors
Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 97 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $74.04 | $17.59 | −76% |
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $219.62 | $217.41 | −1% |
| D'Ieteren Group DIE | €175.00 | €105.40 | −40% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 524.00 TWD | 558.82 TWD | +7% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $62.11 | $29.44 | −53% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $196.57 | $329.77 | +68% |
| AUTO1 Group AG1 | €21.78 | €5.84 | −73% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $76.27 | $66.27 | −13% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $33.96 | $24.55 | −28% |
| Eagers Automotive Limited APE | A$23.44 | A$17.66 | −25% |
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