Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $13.3B · ISIN US70959W1036
What is Penske Automotive Group Inc really worth?
Penske Automotive Group Inc
PAG · US
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of $217.41.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Share price +0.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range ($129.76 to $302.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $64.31 – $223.44 · fair‑value band $129.76 – $302.32 · the $219.62 price screens above the $217.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG) currently trades at $219.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $217.41, implying the stock looks roughly 1.0% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $241.86 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the $219.62 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $56.68, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Penske Automotive Group Inc generated revenue of $31.7B at a net margin of 2.9%. Revenue declined 1.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.5%. Net debt stands at $8.8B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $129.76 (bear case) to $302.32 (bull case); at $219.62, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −1%, PAG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $6.48 per share, which is 3.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($241.86) versus Asset-Based ($56.68). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Penske Automotive Group, Inc., a diversified transportation services company, operates automotive and commercial truck dealerships in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and internationally.
Full company description
Penske Automotive Group, Inc., a diversified transportation services company, operates automotive and commercial truck dealerships in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Retail Automotive, Retail Commercial Truck, Other, and Non-Automotive Investments. The company operates franchise dealerships under franchise agreements with various automotive manufacturers and distributors. It is also involved in the sale of new and used vehicles, maintenance and repair services, sale and placement of third-party finance and insurance products, third-party extended service and maintenance contracts, replacement and aftermarket automotive products, collision repair services, and wholesale of parts. In addition, the company operates a heavy and medium duty truck dealership, which offers Freightliner and Western Star branded trucks, as well as offers a range of used trucks. Further, it imports and distributes Western Star heavy-duty trucks, MAN heavy and medium duty trucks and buses, and Dennis Eagle refuse collection vehicles with associated parts, as well as distributes diesel and gas engines, and power systems. Penske Automotive Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Penske Automotive Group Inc reported revenue of $31.8B in FY2025 versus $25.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $935M in FY2025, compounding −5.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.9 % · buybacks/dilution +3.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch PAG: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Penske (PAG) Down 1.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
- Penske Automotive Sets Scene for Freedom 250 Grand Prix: NYSE Content Update
- 3 Reasons to Sell PAG and 1 Stock to Buy Instead
Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 97 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $74.04 | $17.59 | −76% |
| D'Ieteren Group DIE | €175.00 | €105.40 | −40% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 524.00 TWD | 558.82 TWD | +7% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $62.11 | $29.44 | −53% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $369.61 | $498.50 | +35% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $196.57 | $329.77 | +68% |
| AUTO1 Group AG1 | €21.78 | €5.84 | −73% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $76.27 | $66.27 | −13% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $33.96 | $24.55 | −28% |
| Eagers Automotive Limited APE | A$23.44 | A$17.66 | −25% |
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