CarMax Inc (KMX) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $8.1B · ISIN US1431301027
What is CarMax Inc really worth?
CarMax Inc
KMX · US
A solid business, but trading 113% above our fair value of $29.44.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +8.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($37.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $30.88 – $154.85 · fair‑value band $22.22 – $37.03 · the $62.64 price screens above the $29.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
CarMax Inc (KMX) currently trades at $62.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.44, implying the stock looks roughly 112.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $30.25 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the $62.64 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $14.53, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, CarMax Inc generated revenue of $27.8B at a net margin of 0.9%. Revenue declined 1.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.1%. Net debt stands at $2.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $22.22 (bear case) to $37.03 (bull case); at $62.64, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 107% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −53%, KMX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 6 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.8138 per share, which is 2.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($30.25) versus Earnings-Based ($14.53). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).
Notify me when KMX reaches fair value
Put KMX on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
CarMax, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer of used vehicles and related products in the United States. The company operates in two segments: CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance.
Full company description
CarMax, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer of used vehicles and related products in the United States. The company operates in two segments: CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance. The CarMax Sales Operations segment offers customers a range of makes and models of used vehicles, including domestic, imported, and luxury vehicles, as well as hybrid and electric vehicles; used vehicle auctions; extended protection plans to customers at the time of sale; and reconditioning and vehicle repair services. The CarMax Auto Finance segment provides financing alternatives for retail customers across a range of credit spectrum and arrangements with various financial institutions. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Richmond, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
CarMax Inc reported revenue of $25.9B in FY2026 versus $31.9B in FY2022, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was $247M in FY2026, compounding −31.9%/yr from FY2022.
KMX screens 113% overvalued. Compare with Carvana Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Will CarMax (KMX) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report?
- Carvana Jumps 5% as Risk Appetite Returns to High-Beta Names; CarMax and Lithia Motors Inch Higher
- Gen Alpha Turns 16: New CarMax Survey Reveals the Next Generation of Drivers Is Ready to Get Behind the Wheel
Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 97 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $74.04 | $17.59 | −76% |
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $219.62 | $217.41 | −1% |
| D'Ieteren Group DIE | €175.00 | €105.40 | −40% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 524.00 TWD | 558.82 TWD | +7% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $369.61 | $498.50 | +35% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $196.57 | $329.77 | +68% |
| AUTO1 Group AG1 | €21.78 | €5.84 | −73% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $76.27 | $66.27 | −13% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $33.96 | $24.55 | −28% |
| Eagers Automotive Limited APE | A$23.44 | A$17.66 | −25% |
Compare CarMax Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is CarMax Inc (KMX) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of KMX?
What is the quality score of KMX?
What is the revenue of CarMax Inc (KMX)?
What is the net profit margin of KMX?
Watch CarMax Inc in the live analysis
One click puts CarMax Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.