AutoNation Inc (AN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $6.9B · ISIN US05329W1027
What is AutoNation Inc really worth?
AutoNation Inc
AN · US
Below-average quality, trading 37% below our fair value of $329.77.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price −3.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($235.96). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $88.77 – $229.98 · fair‑value band $235.96 – $412.22 · the $207.18 price screens below the $329.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
Analysis
AutoNation Inc (AN) currently trades at $207.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $329.77, implying the stock looks roughly 37.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $1,393 per share, and 14 of the 17 models we run sit above the $207.18 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $46.88, and 3 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, AutoNation Inc generated revenue of $27.5B at a net margin of 2.5%. Revenue declined 2.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 29.3%. Net debt stands at $10.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $235.96 (bear case) to $412.22 (bull case); at $207.18, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at 59%, AN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $12.47 per share, which is 3.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($1,393) versus Asset-Based ($46.88). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
AutoNation, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an automotive retailer in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Domestic, Import, Premium Luxury, and AutoNation Finance.
Full company description
AutoNation, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an automotive retailer in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Domestic, Import, Premium Luxury, and AutoNation Finance. It offers a range of automotive products and services, including new and used vehicles; and parts and services, such as automotive repair and maintenance, and wholesale parts and collision services. The company also provides automotive finance and insurance products comprising vehicle services and other protection products; and indirect financing, as well as arranges finance for vehicle purchases through third-party finance sources. It owns and operates new vehicle franchises from stores located in metropolitan markets in the Sunbelt region, as well as AutoNation-branded collision centers, AutoNation USA used vehicle stores, AutoNation-branded automotive auction operations, and parts distribution centers. The company was formerly known as Republic Industries, Inc. and changed its name to AutoNation, Inc. in 1999. AutoNation, Inc. was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AutoNation Inc reported revenue of $27.6B in FY2025 versus $25.8B in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was $649M in FY2025, compounding −17.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.1 % · buybacks/dilution +11.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch AN: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Here's Why You Should Retain AutoNation Stock in Your Portfolio
- Is AutoNation (AN) A Bargain Following Its Strong 90 Day Run?
- AN Q2 Earnings Beat as After-Sales Unit Hits Record Gross Profit
Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 97 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $74.04 | $17.59 | −76% |
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $219.62 | $217.41 | −1% |
| D'Ieteren Group DIE | €175.00 | €105.40 | −40% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 524.00 TWD | 558.82 TWD | +7% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $62.11 | $29.44 | −53% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $369.61 | $498.50 | +35% |
| AUTO1 Group AG1 | €21.78 | €5.84 | −73% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $76.27 | $66.27 | −13% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $33.96 | $24.55 | −28% |
| Eagers Automotive Limited APE | A$23.44 | A$17.66 | −25% |
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