Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Sandfire Resources Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$10.2B (≈ $7.3B) · ISIN AU000000SFR8
At a glance
SRSandfire Resources LtdSFR · AU
PriceA$22.47
Fair ValueA$4.71
Upside−79.0%
Quality70/100
A solid business, but trading 377% above our fair value of A$4.71.
As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of Sandfire Resources Ltd is A$4.71 per share against a price of A$22.47, so the fair value sits 79% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.8% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Moderate moat 54/100
!Weak on dividend: 25 out of 100
Evidence: HighRange A$3.92 to A$5.89
Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 7, 2026, revised from A$4.74 to A$4.71 (−0.6%) since Aug 29, 2026. Share price +5.4% over the past month.
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What matters now
A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$5.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.25 – A$24.15 · fair‑value band A$3.92 – A$5.89 · the A$22.47 price screens above the A$4.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR) currently trades at A$22.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$4.71, implying the stock looks roughly 377.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$12.81 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$22.47 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$2.56, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Sandfire Resources Ltd generated revenue of A$1.3B at a net margin of 10.8%. Revenue grew 17.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.5%. Net debt stands at A$143M. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026
Scenario range: A$3.92 (bear) to A$5.89 (bull), the price of A$22.47 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 122% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −79%, SFR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.4300 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio52.3
P/S ratio4.05P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)A$0.4300price ÷ EPS = P/E 52.3
Dividend yield1.3%payout 65.7%
Net margin7.8%FY2025
Return on equity7.5%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)6.5%avg 5y
Operating margin22.7%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)A$1.3BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+17.3%3y avg +9.3%
EPS growth (YoY)+86.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flowA$337MFY2025
Net debtA$143MFY2025 · ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality70/100
Of which business quality 68
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Profitability35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth97
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow87
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility26
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum87
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance56
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Sandfire Resources Limited, a mining company, explores for, evaluates, and develops mineral tenements and projects. It primarily explores for copper, gold, silver, lead, and zinc deposits. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Sandfire Resources Ltd reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $772M in FY2021, a compound +11.7%/yr. Reported net income was $93.3M in FY2025, compounding −14.2%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
A$1.2B
Latest YoY
+28.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+58.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−10.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−11.8%
Dividend yield1.3%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −11.8% vs 10Y 4.3%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19.4% (2020) → 18.4% (2025) · steady
Worst earnings drop145% (2023) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in AUD
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How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−79% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Below median
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)23% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Below median
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)52.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.32× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)4.61× · Pricier than median
P/FCF17.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA10.8× · Pricier than median
PEG0.56× · Cheaper than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Sandfire Resources Ltd deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 0
FUTURE87· sector 100
PAST30· sector 34
HEALTH94· sector 92
DIVIDEND25· sector 22
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 7, 2026).
Is Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$4.71 versus a price of A$22.47, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SFR?
Our model-based fair value for Sandfire Resources Ltd is A$4.71 (as of Sep 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$22.47.
What is the quality score of SFR?
Sandfire Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$4.71 (as of Sep 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$3.92, optimistic scenario A$5.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sandfire Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$4.71, about −79% upside versus a price of A$22.47 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$3.92, optimistic scenario A$5.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
Sandfire Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SFR?
The net profit margin of Sandfire Resources Ltd is about 10.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Sandfire Resources Ltd pay a dividend?
Sandfire Resources Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sandfire Resources Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +16.0 % per year for ten years (discount rate 10.9 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.3 % per year. As of Sep 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SFR use?
Our models discount Sandfire Resources Ltd at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.60, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sandfire Resources Ltd it is A$4.71 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026), against a price of A$22.47. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sandfire Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 7, 2026, SFR trades above its calculated fair value: price A$22.47, fair value A$4.71, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SFR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$22.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$4.71). For Sandfire Resources Ltd the two are A$17.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sandfire Resources Ltd worth?
The market values Sandfire Resources Ltd at about A$10.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 7, 2026). Per share that is A$22.47; our models calculate a fair value of A$4.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SFR?
Our models span a range for Sandfire Resources Ltd: cautious scenario A$3.92, base A$4.71, optimistic A$5.89 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026, price A$22.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SFR?
Sandfire Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 52.3 (as of Sep 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$4.71 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 3.3, P/S 4.6, EV/EBITDA 10.8.
What is the PEG ratio of SFR?
The PEG ratio of Sandfire Resources Ltd is 0.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sandfire Resources Ltd (as of Sep 7, 2026): return on equity 7.5%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SFR from its 52-week high?
Sandfire Resources Ltd trades at A$22.47, about 3% below its 52-week high of A$21.75 and 122% above the low of A$10.11 (as of Sep 7, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$4.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sandfire Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Lundin Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sandfire Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 7, 2026: price A$22.47, calculated fair value A$4.71 (−79%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SFR calculated?
We run Sandfire Resources Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$4.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Sandfire Resources Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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