Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$8.2B (≈ $5.9B) · ISIN AU000000SFR8
What is Sandfire Resources Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 377% above our fair value of A$4.74.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 29, 2026, revised from A$4.72 to A$4.74 (+0.4%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +18.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$5.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.25 – A$24.15 · fair‑value band A$3.94 – A$5.92 · the A$22.59 price screens above the A$4.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR) currently trades at A$22.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$4.74, implying the stock looks roughly 376.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$12.81 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$22.59 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$2.56, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Sandfire Resources Ltd generated revenue of A$1.3B at a net margin of 10.8%. Revenue grew 17.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.5%. Net debt stands at A$143M. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$3.94 (bear case) to A$5.92 (bull case); at A$22.59, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 123% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −79%, SFR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$0.4300 per share, which is 9.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$12.81) versus Asset-Based (A$2.56). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
Notify me when SFR reaches fair value
Put SFR on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Sandfire Resources Limited, a mining company, explores for, evaluates, and develops mineral tenements and projects. It primarily explores for copper, gold, silver, lead, and zinc deposits. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Sandfire Resources Ltd reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $772M in FY2021, a compound +11.7%/yr. Reported net income was $93.3M in FY2025, compounding −14.2%/yr from FY2021.
SFR screens 377% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFRRF) (FY 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and First ...
- Cyprium Metals appoints ex-Sandfire executive Richard Holmes as chief development officer
- Sandfire Resources Limited (ASX:SFR) is largely controlled by institutional shareholders who own 67% of the company
- Sandfire Resources Limited's (ASX:SFR) Financials Are Too Obscure To Link With Current Share Price Momentum: What's In Store For the Stock?
Peer Group
Copper · 59 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $216.28 | $85.17 | −61% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $75.74 | $22.81 | −70% |
| First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM | C$43.46 | C$16.35 | −62% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$35.76 | C$22.65 | −37% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥45.86 | ¥35.19 | −23% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥6.37 | ¥3.06 | −52% |
| MMG Limited 1208 | HK$9.08 | HK$5.29 | −42% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$38.79 | C$21.25 | −45% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥19.78 | ¥6.39 | −68% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CS | C$14.82 | C$9.91 | −33% |
Compare Sandfire Resources Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of SFR?
What is the quality score of SFR?
What is the revenue of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
What is the net profit margin of SFR?
Does Sandfire Resources Ltd pay a dividend?
Watch Sandfire Resources Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Sandfire Resources Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.