KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · PL · Market cap 60.6B PLN (≈ $16.3B) · ISIN PLKGHM000017
What is KGHM Polska Miedz SA really worth?
A solid business, but trading 29% above our fair value of 275.91 PLN.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated today
Share price +2.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (193.14 PLN to 358.68 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 82.35 PLN – 390.32 PLN · fair‑value band 193.14 PLN – 358.68 PLN · the 356.00 PLN price screens above the 275.91 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH) currently trades at 356.00 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 275.91 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 29.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 275.91 PLN per share, and 1 of the 17 models we run sit above the 356.00 PLN price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 105.08 PLN, and 16 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, KGHM Polska Miedz SA generated revenue of 39.3B PLN at a net margin of 17.5%. Revenue grew 32.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.1%. Net debt stands at 4.7B PLN. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 193.14 PLN (bear case) to 358.68 PLN (bull case); at 356.00 PLN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 198% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −23%, KGH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 22.38 PLN per share, which is 8.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (275.91 PLN) versus DCF Models (20.60 PLN). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. engages in the exploration and mining of copper, nickel, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals in Poland and internationally.
Full company description
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. engages in the exploration and mining of copper, nickel, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals in Poland and internationally. The company offers copper cathodes, wire rod, Cu - Ofe wire, Cu - Ag wire, and granules; silver and gold; molybdenum; rhenium; nickel; and lead, sulphuric acid, copper and nickel sulphate, and selenium products, as well as platinum, palladium, and rock salt products. It holds a portfolio of mines located in Europe, Asia, Australia, Africa, and the United States. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Lubin, Poland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
KGHM Polska Miedz SA reported revenue of 36.4B PLN in FY2025 versus 29.8B PLN in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was 3.7B PLN in FY2025, compounding −12.0%/yr from FY2021.
KGH screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Peer Group
Copper · 59 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $216.28 | $85.17 | −61% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $75.74 | $22.81 | −70% |
| First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM | C$43.46 | C$16.35 | −62% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$35.76 | C$22.65 | −37% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥45.86 | ¥35.19 | −23% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥6.37 | ¥3.06 | −52% |
| MMG Limited 1208 | HK$9.08 | HK$5.29 | −42% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$38.79 | C$21.25 | −45% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥19.78 | ¥6.39 | −68% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CS | C$14.82 | C$9.91 | −33% |
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