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KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · PL · Market cap 60.6B PLN (≈ $16.3B) · ISIN PLKGHM000017

What is KGHM Polska Miedz SA really worth?

KP KGHM Polska Miedz SA KGH · WAR
Price356.00 PLN
Fair Value275.91 PLN
Upside−22.5%
Quality59/100

A solid business, but trading 29% above our fair value of 275.91 PLN.

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Strengths

Solidly profitable · 17.5% net margin
Ranks above peers (12/14)
Wide moat 69/100

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +9.0 %/yr)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Weak on valuation: 3 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 8 out of 100

For context

·0.42% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range 193.14 PLN – 358.68 PLN

Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated today

Share price +2.9% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (193.14 PLN to 358.68 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

390.32 PLN 82.35 PLN Fair Value 275.91 PLN May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 82.35 PLN – 390.32 PLN · fair‑value band 193.14 PLN – 358.68 PLN · the 356.00 PLN price screens above the 275.91 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

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Analysis

KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH) currently trades at 356.00 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 275.91 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 29.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 275.91 PLN per share, and 1 of the 17 models we run sit above the 356.00 PLN price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 105.08 PLN, and 16 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, KGHM Polska Miedz SA generated revenue of 39.3B PLN at a net margin of 17.5%. Revenue grew 32.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.1%. Net debt stands at 4.7B PLN. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 193.14 PLN (bear case) to 358.68 PLN (bull case); at 356.00 PLN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 198% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −23%, KGH screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 22.38 PLN per share, which is 8.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV best evidence 92.16 PLN 110.84 PLN 127.19 PLN 74
Residual Income 148.56 PLN 172.72 PLN 352.26 PLN 72
ROIC Compounder 92.16 PLN 110.84 PLN 127.19 PLN 72
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 6.75 PLN 20.60 PLN 41.29 PLN 71
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 125.36 PLN 358.70 PLN 472.89 PLN 65
Lynch FV 73.56 PLN 105.08 PLN 136.60 PLN 61
PEG = 1.0 73.56 PLN 105.08 PLN 136.60 PLN 57
EPV best evidence 92.16 PLN 110.84 PLN 127.19 PLN 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 13.77 PLN 28.64 PLN 45.43 PLN 66
DDM Multi-Stage 13.77 PLN 21.97 PLN 30.05 PLN 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 235.05 PLN 313.40 PLN 391.74 PLN 63
P/S Multiple 204.56 PLN 272.75 PLN 340.93 PLN 58
P/B Multiple 235.05 PLN 313.40 PLN 391.74 PLN 55
EV/EBIT 194.00 PLN 265.31 PLN 336.62 PLN 66
EV/EBITDA 221.60 PLN 302.11 PLN 382.62 PLN 67
EV/Revenue 165.47 PLN 244.94 PLN 324.40 PLN 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 82.07 PLN 109.97 PLN 164.14 PLN 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 148.56 PLN 172.72 PLN 352.26 PLN 72
ROIC Compounder 92.16 PLN 110.84 PLN 127.19 PLN 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 193.14 PLN 275.91 PLN 358.68 PLN 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (275.91 PLN) versus DCF Models (20.60 PLN). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 10.3
P/S ratio 1.05 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) 34.44 PLN price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.3
Dividend yield 0.4% payout 4.4%
Net margin 10.1% FY2025
Return on equity 20.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 34.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 39.3B PLN TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +32.8% 3y avg +2.4%
EPS growth (YoY) +969%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −1.5B PLN FY2025
Net debt 4.7B PLN FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 22
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 76
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 69
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 28
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 75
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 93
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. engages in the exploration and mining of copper, nickel, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals in Poland and internationally.

Full company description

KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. engages in the exploration and mining of copper, nickel, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals in Poland and internationally. The company offers copper cathodes, wire rod, Cu - Ofe wire, Cu - Ag wire, and granules; silver and gold; molybdenum; rhenium; nickel; and lead, sulphuric acid, copper and nickel sulphate, and selenium products, as well as platinum, palladium, and rock salt products. It holds a portfolio of mines located in Europe, Asia, Australia, Africa, and the United States. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Lubin, Poland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

KGHM Polska Miedz SA reported revenue of 36.4B PLN in FY2025 versus 29.8B PLN in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was 3.7B PLN in FY2025, compounding −12.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 56/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
36.4B PLN
Latest YoY
+3.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+15.8% (15.4 + 0.4)
Revenue +5.1%/yr
FY21 29.8B PLN
FY22 33.8B PLN
FY23 32.8B PLN
FY24 35.3B PLN
FY25 36.4B PLN
Net income −12.0%/yr
FY21 6.2B PLN
FY22 4.8B PLN
FY23 −3.7B PLN
FY24 2.9B PLN
FY25 3.7B PLN

KGH screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "KGHM Polska Miedz SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KGH

Peer Group

Copper · 59 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −23% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 34% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 33% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.4% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.13× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.50× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.42× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 2.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 2.79× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE3 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 100
PAST81 · sector 34
HEALTH93 · sector 92
DIVIDEND8 · sector 21

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Southern Copper Corporation SCCO $216.28 $85.17 −61%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX $75.74 $22.81 −70%
First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM C$43.46 C$16.35 −62%
Lundin Mining Corporation LUN C$35.76 C$22.65 −37%
Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 ¥45.86 ¥35.19 −23%
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 ¥6.37 ¥3.06 −52%
MMG Limited 1208 HK$9.08 HK$5.29 −42%
Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM C$38.79 C$21.25 −45%
Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 ¥19.78 ¥6.39 −68%
Capstone Copper Corp CS C$14.82 C$9.91 −33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 275.91 PLN versus a price of 356.00 PLN, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KGH?
Our model-based fair value for KGHM Polska Miedz SA is 275.91 PLN (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 356.00 PLN.
What is the quality score of KGH?
KGHM Polska Miedz SA has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH)?
KGHM Polska Miedz SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 39.3B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of KGH?
The net profit margin of KGHM Polska Miedz SA is about 17.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 17.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does KGHM Polska Miedz SA pay a dividend?
KGHM Polska Miedz SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.42% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
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