KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGH) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · PL · Market cap 60.6B PLN
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +12.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 22% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (193.14 PLN to 358.68 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 82.35 PLN – 390.32 PLN · fair‑value band 193.14 PLN – 358.68 PLN · the 352.50 PLN price screens above the 275.91 PLN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGH) currently trades at 352.50 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 275.91 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 21.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, KGHM Polska Miedz S.A generated revenue of 39.3B PLN at a net margin of 17.5%. Revenue grew 32.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.1%. Net debt stands at 4.7B PLN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 193.14 PLN (bear case) to 358.68 PLN (bull case); at 352.50 PLN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 195% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -54% fair-value upside, at -22%, KGH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (275.91 PLN) versus DCF Models (20.60 PLN). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. engages in the exploration and mining of copper, nickel, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals in Poland and internationally.
Full company description
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. engages in the exploration and mining of copper, nickel, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals in Poland and internationally. The company offers copper cathodes, wire rod, Cu - Ofe wire, Cu - Ag wire, and granules; silver and gold; molybdenum; rhenium; nickel; and lead, sulphuric acid, copper and nickel sulphate, and selenium products, as well as platinum, palladium, and rock salt products. It holds a portfolio of mines located in Europe, Asia, Australia, Africa, and the United States. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Lubin, Poland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A reported revenue of 36.4B PLN in FY2025 versus 29.8B PLN in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was 3.7B PLN in FY2025, compounding −12.0%/yr from FY2021.
KGH screens 22% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Peer Group
Copper · 59 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $194.89 | $85.17 | -56% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $69.22 | $22.81 | -67% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$36.91 | C$18.67 | -49% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥46.47 | ¥35.19 | -24% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥6.63 | ¥3.06 | -54% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$38.79 | C$21.25 | -45% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥19.38 | ¥6.39 | -67% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CSC | A$15.85 | A$7.28 | -54% |
| Yunnan Copper Co 000878 | ¥16.68 | ¥7.46 | -55% |
| Sandfire Resources Limited SFR | A$21.57 | A$3.39 | -84% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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