Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Johnson & Johnson stock $169, price $258, upside -34.5%, quality 80 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $133.69 – $278.43 · fair‑value band $108.21 – $254.63 · the $257.78 price screens above the $168.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
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Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field worldwide. It operates in two segments, Innovative Medicine and MedTech.
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The Innovative Medicine segment offers products for various therapeutic areas, such as oncology, immunology, neuroscience, pulmonary hypertension, infectious diseases, and cardiovascular and metabolism distributed through retailers, wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, and healthcare professionals for prescription use.
The MedTech segment provides a portfolio of products used in the surgery, orthopedic, cardiovascular, and vision fields distributed through wholesalers, hospitals and retailers, and used in the professional fields by physicians, nurses, hospitals, eye care professionals and clinics.
This segment also offers products and enabling technologies that support joint reconstruction, trauma, spine, sports related injuries, and others, as well as open, laparoscopic, and robotic surgical procedures; instrumentation, energy devices, stapling systems, wound closure, biosurgery products, and digital and robotic technologies; breast aesthetics and reconstruction; contact lenses under the ACUVUE brand; intraocular lenses for cataract surgery, and other products used in cataract and refractive procedures under the TECNIS brand.
The company was founded in 1886 and is based in New Brunswick, New Jersey.
Stock analysis
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) currently trades at $257.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $168.85, 34.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $206.52 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $257.78 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $57.95, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $108.21 (bear) to $254.63 (bull), the price of $257.78 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Johnson & Johnson reported revenue of $94.2B in FY2025 versus $78.7B in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was $26.8B in FY2025, compounding +6.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $629B Mega · P/E ratio 39.1 · P/S ratio 6.33 · EPS (TTM) $6.59 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 16.2% · Return on equity 25.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 84 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −34%, JNJ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$108.21Fair Value $168.85Bull$254.63
Price $257.78 · Upside -34.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.28 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+13.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.4% vs 6.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 27%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.1% a year for the price and +3.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Moderate moat from margins and diversification underpins business quality, while ongoing legal settlements and regulatory scrutiny create the main uncertainty.
Main risk: Ongoing legal settlements and regulatory scrutiny form the single biggest risk to Johnson & Johnson's business and would hit margins through continued financial burdens.
Johnson & Johnson reports two-year data showing sustained skin clearance with its new oral psoriasis drug ICOTYDE in both adults and adolescents. This durability could expand its role as a first-line option in a large chronic market. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will pipeline momentum in immune diseases offset slower growth in established segments or will pricing pressure and competition cap returns?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 74 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−34.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)25.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets13.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)16.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)25.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.48× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)39.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B7.71× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)6.33× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow31.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA19.0× · Pricier than median
PEG2.82× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)30· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 40
HEALTH (low debt)76· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Johnson & Johnson Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JNJ
Frequently asked questions
Is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $168.85 versus a price of $257.78, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JNJ?
Our model-based fair value for Johnson & Johnson is $168.85 (as of Oct 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $257.78.
What is the quality score of JNJ?
Johnson & Johnson has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $168.85 (as of Oct 21, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $108.21, optimistic scenario $254.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Johnson & Johnson stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $168.85, about −34% upside versus a price of $257.78 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $108.21, optimistic scenario $254.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)?
Johnson & Johnson reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $99.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 21, 2026).
Does Johnson & Johnson pay a dividend?
Johnson & Johnson currently shows a dividend yield of 0.50% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 21, 2026).
What growth is priced into Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Johnson & Johnson would have to grow free cash flow by +12.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.7 % per year. As of Oct 21, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JNJ use?
Our models discount Johnson & Johnson at 7.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Johnson & Johnson that is +12.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Johnson & Johnson grew +2.7 % a year. The price currently implies +12.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Johnson & Johnson (+12.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.13 %: that much free cash flow Johnson & Johnson produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Johnson & Johnson it is $168.85 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026), against a price of $257.78. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Johnson & Johnson stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 21, 2026, JNJ trades above its calculated fair value: price $257.78, fair value $168.85, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JNJ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($257.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($168.85). For Johnson & Johnson the two are $88.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Johnson & Johnson worth?
The market values Johnson & Johnson at about $629B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 21, 2026). Per share that is $257.78; our models calculate a fair value of $168.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JNJ?
Our models span a range for Johnson & Johnson: cautious scenario $108.21, base $168.85, optimistic $254.63 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026, price $257.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JNJ?
Johnson & Johnson trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.1 (as of Oct 21, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $168.85 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 8 of the years ex one-offs: 24.5. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 7.7, P/S 6.3, EV/EBITDA 19.0.
What is the PEG ratio of JNJ?
The PEG ratio of Johnson & Johnson is 2.82 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 21, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Johnson & Johnson (as of Oct 21, 2026): return on equity 25.7%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JNJ from its 52-week high?
Johnson & Johnson trades at $257.78, about 7% below its 52-week high of $278.43 and 42% above the low of $181.88 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $168.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Johnson & Johnson?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, Merck & Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Johnson & Johnson stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 21, 2026: price $257.78, calculated fair value $168.85 (−34%), Quality Score 80/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JNJ calculated?
We run Johnson & Johnson through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $168.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Johnson & Johnson itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $257.78. Our model-based fair value is $168.85, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Johnson & Johnson right now?
A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range ($108.21 to $254.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) come from?
Earnings per share at Johnson & Johnson grew +6.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.9 %, EBIT margin −0.8 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Johnson & Johnson
How large is the market capitalisation of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)?
The market capitalisation of Johnson & Johnson is $629B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Johnson & Johnson is 6.33 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)?
Earnings per share at Johnson & Johnson are $6.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)?
The dividend yield of Johnson & Johnson is 0.5% (payout 19.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)?
The net margin of Johnson & Johnson is 16.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Johnson & Johnson is 25.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Johnson & Johnson is 12.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)?
The operating margin of Johnson & Johnson is 25.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)?
Revenue at Johnson & Johnson is growing +5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)?
Earnings per share at Johnson & Johnson are growing −96.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) carry?
The net debt of Johnson & Johnson is $28.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 21, 2026