Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Gilead Sciences Inc stock $199, price $154, upside +29.4%, quality 81 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $48.96 – $157.37 · fair‑value band $117.78 – $258.40 · the $153.57 price screens below the $198.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
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Gilead Sciences, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines in the areas of unmet medical need in the United States, Europe, and internationally.
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The company provides Biktarvy, Descovy, Genvoya, Odefsey, Sunlenca, Symtuza, and YeztugoFor the treatment of HIV-1 infection in patients.
It also provides Epclusa, Livdelzi, and Vemlidy to treat chronic hepatitis C virus, primary biliary cholangitis, and chronic hepatitis B virus; Tecartus, a T-cell therapy for the treatment of adult patients; Trodelvy, an injection for intravenous use; and Yescarta, a suspension for intravenous infusion, is a CAR T-cell therapy for the treatment of adult patients.
Further, it provides AmBisome, for the treatment of serious invasive fungal infections; and Veklury for the treatment of COVID-19. Additionally, the company engages in the development of various immunotherapies for patients with cancer and other incurable diseases.
The company has collaboration agreements with Shenzhen Pregene Biopharma Co., Ltd.; Abingworth; Arcus Biosciences, Inc.; Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp.; Janssen Sciences Ireland Unlimited Company; Japan Tobacco, Inc.; Everest Medicines; Merck & Co, Inc.; Tentarix Biotherapeutics Inc.; and Assembly Biosciences, Inc. It also has research collaboration, option, and license agreement with Merus N.V. for the discovery of novel dual tumor-associated antigens (TAA) targeting trispecific antibodies.
The company has a collaboration with Terray Therapeutics, Inc. to discover and develop small molecule therapies; and LEO Pharma to develop, manufacture, and commercialize the small molecule oral STAT6 program. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.
Stock analysis
Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) currently trades at $153.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $198.77, implying the stock looks roughly 22.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $242.34 per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the $153.57 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $58.95, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $117.78 (bear) to $258.40 (bull), the price of $153.57 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 81/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Gilead Sciences Inc reported revenue of $29.4B in FY2025 versus $27.3B in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was $8.5B in FY2025, compounding +8.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $191B Large · P/E ratio 18.5 · P/S ratio 5.36 · EPS (TTM) $−2.65 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin −10.6% · Return on equity −20.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 29%, GILD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$117.78Fair Value $198.77Bull$258.40
Price $153.57 · Upside +29.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.65/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.0% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+10.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.0% vs −3.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 40%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.0% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: High margins and ROE signal clear pricing power as the main strength while limited human capital signals and possible longer-term patent cliffs form the key weakness.
Main risk: Possible longer-term patent cliffs could reduce cash flows from the established HIV portfolio that serves as the primary earnings driver.
Gilead has licensed a clinic-ready MAT2A inhibitor from Genhouse Bio to advance its synthetic lethality efforts in oncology. This builds on earlier moves into cancer and inflammation even as the HIV business remains the main cash engine. Our models see the stock as undervalued. Will the newer therapeutic areas deliver meaningful growth before the core franchise slows or will the established portfolio keep driving results for the foreseeable future?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 74 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score81 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+29.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets14.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)−10.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)33.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.98× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B8.44× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $198.77 versus a price of $153.57, about +29% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GILD?
Our model-based fair value for Gilead Sciences Inc is $198.77 (as of Oct 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $153.57.
What is the quality score of GILD?
Gilead Sciences Inc has a Quality Score of 81/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $198.77 (as of Oct 21, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $117.78, optimistic scenario $258.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gilead Sciences Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $198.77, about +29% upside versus a price of $153.57 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $117.78, optimistic scenario $258.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)?
Gilead Sciences Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $30.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 21, 2026).
Does Gilead Sciences Inc pay a dividend?
Gilead Sciences Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.10% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 21, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gilead Sciences Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +6.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.6 % per year. As of Oct 21, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GILD use?
Our models discount Gilead Sciences Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gilead Sciences Inc that is +6.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gilead Sciences Inc grew +3.6 % a year. The price currently implies +6.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gilead Sciences Inc (+6.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.95 %: that much free cash flow Gilead Sciences Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gilead Sciences Inc it is $198.77 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026), against a price of $153.57. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gilead Sciences Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 21, 2026, GILD trades below its calculated fair value: price $153.57, fair value $198.77, a gap of about +29% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GILD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($153.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($198.77). For Gilead Sciences Inc the two are $45.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gilead Sciences Inc worth?
The market values Gilead Sciences Inc at about $191B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 21, 2026). Per share that is $153.57; our models calculate a fair value of $198.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GILD?
Our models span a range for Gilead Sciences Inc: cautious scenario $117.78, base $198.77, optimistic $258.40 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026, price $153.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GILD?
Gilead Sciences Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 (as of Oct 21, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $198.77 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 21.2 (reported for FY2025: 22.7). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 8 of the years ex one-offs: 15.8. Other multiples: PEG 2.3, P/B 8.4, P/S 6.3, EV/EBITDA 14.1.
What is the PEG ratio of GILD?
The PEG ratio of Gilead Sciences Inc is 2.27 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 21, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gilead Sciences Inc (as of Oct 21, 2026): return on equity −20.7%, debt of 0.98 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 81/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GILD from its 52-week high?
Gilead Sciences Inc trades at $153.57, about 2% below its 52-week high of $157.37 and 33% above the low of $115.04 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $198.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gilead Sciences Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gilead Sciences Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 21, 2026: price $153.57, calculated fair value $198.77 (+29%), Quality Score 81/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GILD calculated?
We run Gilead Sciences Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $198.77, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Gilead Sciences Inc currently trades 23 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $153.57. Our model-based fair value is $198.77, about +29% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gilead Sciences Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (81/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range ($117.78 to $258.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) come from?
Earnings per share at Gilead Sciences Inc grew −9.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.7 %, EBIT margin −9.9 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Gilead Sciences Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)?
The market capitalisation of Gilead Sciences Inc is $191B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gilead Sciences Inc is 5.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)?
Earnings per share at Gilead Sciences Inc are $−2.65 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)?
The dividend yield of Gilead Sciences Inc is 2.1% (payout 43.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 46.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)?
The net margin of Gilead Sciences Inc is −10.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gilead Sciences Inc is −20.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gilead Sciences Inc is 12.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)?
The operating margin of Gilead Sciences Inc is 33.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)?
Revenue at Gilead Sciences Inc is growing +10.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)?
Earnings per share at Gilead Sciences Inc are growing +54.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) carry?
The net debt of Gilead Sciences Inc is $17.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 21, 2026