Novartis AG (NOVN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Novartis AG stock CHF 120, price CHF 129, upside -6.7%, quality 85 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 57.59 – CHF 131.32 · fair‑value band CHF 87.40 – CHF 153.08 · the CHF 128.88 price screens above the CHF 120.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
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Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally.
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The company offers Entresto, an angiotensin receptorneprilysin inhibitor to treat symptomatic chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF); Cosentyx to treat plaque psoriasis, pso riatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and nonradiographic axial spondy loarthritis; Kisqali, a selective oral cyclin dependent inhibitor of kinases 4 and 6 (CDK4/6); Promacta/Revolade to treat immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), thrombocytopenia, and patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA); Tafinlar+Mekinist, an oral combination therapy to treat patients with certain types of cancers; and Jakavi for the treatment of myelofibrosis, polycythemia vera, and acute or chronic graftversushost disease (GvHD). It also provides Tasigna to treat philadelphia chromosomepositive chronic myeloid leukemia in the chronic and/or accelerated phase; Xolair for the treatment of allergic asthma and nasal polyps or severe chronic rhinosi nusitis with nasal polyps; Ilaris to treat fever syndromes, Still's disease, and acute gouty arthritis; Pluvicto to treat prostatespecific membrane anti genpositive metastatic castrationresistant prostate cancer; Sandostatin SC and Sandostatin LAR to treat acromegaly carcinoid tumors and other types of functional gastro intestinal and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors; Zolgensma for the treatment of genetic root cause of spinal muscular atrophy; Lucentis; Leqvio to reduce LDL cholesterol; Lutathera; Scemblix; and Fabhalta.
The company focuses on therapeutic areas, such as cardiovascular, renal and metabolic, immunology, neuroscience, oncology, and hematology.
It has a license and collaboration agreement with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize Leqvio (inclisiran), a therapy to reduce LDL cholesterol. Novartis AG was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Novartis AG (NOVN) currently trades at CHF 128.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 120.24, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of CHF 138.82 per share, and 9 of the 23 models we run sit above the CHF 128.88 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at CHF 48.25, and 14 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: CHF 87.40 (bear) to CHF 153.08 (bull), the price of CHF 128.88 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 85/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Novartis AG reported revenue of $57.1B in FY2025 versus $44.0B in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was $14.6B in FY2025, compounding −11.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 247B Mega · P/E ratio 24.5 · P/S ratio 5.21 · EPS (TTM) CHF 5.25 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 22.5% · Return on equity 30.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 91 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −7%, NOVN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearCHF 87.40Fair Value CHF 120.24BullCHF 153.08
Price CHF 128.88 · Upside -6.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 1.25 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.3% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+17.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.2% vs 6.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 31%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.6% a year for the price and +2.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Strong margins and returns form the core strength of the business, while limited public signals on human capital and ownership represent the key weakness keeping the moat only moderate.
Main risk: Late-stage setbacks in the pipeline could prevent lasting momentum from the immune-disease extensions and hit new revenue streams from Remibrutinib.
Novartis secured fresh FDA approval expanding Rhapsido to symptomatic dermographism on top of its chronic spontaneous urticaria indication. Remibrutinib now targets two major chronic hives forms while positive MS trial data await full presentation. Does the company gain lasting momentum from these immune-disease extensions or encounter the same late-stage setbacks seen elsewhere in its pipeline?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 74 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score85 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−5.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)30.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets12.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)22.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)34.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.61× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)24.5× · Pricier than median
P/B6.40× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Novartis AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NOVN
Frequently asked questions
Is Novartis AG (NOVN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 120.24 versus a price of CHF 128.88, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NOVN?
Our model-based fair value for Novartis AG is CHF 120.24 (as of Oct 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 128.88.
What is the quality score of NOVN?
Novartis AG has a Quality Score of 85/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Novartis AG (NOVN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 120.24 (as of Oct 20, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 87.40, optimistic scenario CHF 153.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Novartis AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 120.24, about −7% upside versus a price of CHF 128.88 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario CHF 87.40, optimistic scenario CHF 153.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Novartis AG (NOVN)?
Novartis AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $56.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 20, 2026).
Does Novartis AG pay a dividend?
Novartis AG currently shows a dividend yield of 2.87% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 20, 2026).
What growth is priced into Novartis AG (NOVN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Novartis AG would have to grow free cash flow by +0.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.7 % per year. As of Oct 20, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NOVN use?
Our models discount Novartis AG at 7.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Novartis AG that is +0.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Novartis AG (NOVN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Novartis AG grew +2.7 % a year. The price currently implies +0.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Novartis AG (NOVN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Novartis AG (+0.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Novartis AG (NOVN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.15 %: that much free cash flow Novartis AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Novartis AG (NOVN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Novartis AG it is CHF 120.24 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026), against a price of CHF 128.88. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Novartis AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 20, 2026, NOVN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 128.88, fair value CHF 120.24, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NOVN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 128.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 120.24). For Novartis AG the two are CHF 8.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Novartis AG worth?
The market values Novartis AG at about CHF 247B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 20, 2026). Per share that is CHF 128.88; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 120.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NOVN?
Our models span a range for Novartis AG: cautious scenario CHF 87.40, base CHF 120.24, optimistic CHF 153.08 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026, price CHF 128.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NOVN?
Novartis AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.5 (as of Oct 20, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 120.24 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 21.8. Other multiples: PEG 3.4, P/B 6.4, P/S 5.2, EV/EBITDA 13.5.
What is the PEG ratio of NOVN?
The PEG ratio of Novartis AG is 3.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 20, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Novartis AG (NOVN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Novartis AG (as of Oct 20, 2026): return on equity 30.4%, debt of 0.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 85/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NOVN from its 52-week high?
Novartis AG trades at CHF 128.88, about 2% below its 52-week high of CHF 131.32 and 35% above the low of CHF 95.59 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 120.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Novartis AG?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Novartis AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 20, 2026: price CHF 128.88, calculated fair value CHF 120.24 (−7%), Quality Score 85/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NOVN calculated?
We run Novartis AG through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 120.24, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Novartis AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Novartis AG (NOVN)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was CHF 128.88. Our model-based fair value is CHF 120.24, about −7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Novartis AG right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Novartis AG (NOVN) come from?
Earnings per share at Novartis AG grew +4.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.2 %, EBIT margin +4.3 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Novartis AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Novartis AG (NOVN)?
The market capitalisation of Novartis AG is CHF 247B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Novartis AG (NOVN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Novartis AG is 5.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Novartis AG (NOVN)?
Earnings per share at Novartis AG are CHF 5.25 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Novartis AG (NOVN)?
The dividend yield of Novartis AG is 2.9% (payout 70.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Novartis AG (NOVN)?
The net margin of Novartis AG is 22.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Novartis AG (NOVN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Novartis AG is 30.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Novartis AG (NOVN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Novartis AG is 10.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Novartis AG (NOVN)?
The operating margin of Novartis AG is 34.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Novartis AG (NOVN)?
Revenue at Novartis AG is growing +0.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Novartis AG (NOVN)?
Earnings per share at Novartis AG are growing −17.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Novartis AG (NOVN) carry?
The net debt of Novartis AG is $25.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 20, 2026