Novartis AG (NOVN) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · CH · Market cap CHF 239B · ISIN CH0012005267
What is Novartis AG really worth?
A strong business, but trading 13% above our fair value of CHF 114.90.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 30, 2026, revised from CHF 114.29 to CHF 114.90 (+0.5%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +4.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 57.59 – CHF 131.32 · fair‑value band CHF 82.83 – CHF 146.98 · the CHF 129.58 price screens above the CHF 114.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Novartis AG (NOVN) currently trades at CHF 129.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 114.90, implying the stock looks roughly 12.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 85/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of CHF 151.79 per share, and 11 of the 25 models we run sit above the CHF 129.58 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at CHF 16.19, and 14 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Novartis AG generated revenue of CHF 56.6B at a net margin of 23.9%. Revenue declined 0.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 34.9%. Net debt stands at CHF 25.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from CHF 82.83 (bear case) to CHF 146.98 (bull case); at CHF 129.58, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −11%, NOVN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly CHF 1.32 per share, which is 1.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (CHF 151.79) versus Asset-Based (CHF 16.19). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 80 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally.
Full company description
Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally. The company offers Entresto, an angiotensin receptorneprilysin inhibitor to treat symptomatic chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF); Cosentyx to treat plaque psoriasis, pso riatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and nonradiographic axial spondy loarthritis; Kisqali, a selective oral cyclin dependent inhibitor of kinases 4 and 6 (CDK4/6); Promacta/Revolade to treat immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), thrombocytopenia, and patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA); Tafinlar+Mekinist, an oral combination therapy to treat patients with certain types of cancers; and Jakavi for the treatment of myelofibrosis, polycythemia vera, and acute or chronic graftversushost disease (GvHD). It also provides Tasigna to treat philadelphia chromosomepositive chronic myeloid leukemia in the chronic and/or accelerated phase; Xolair for the treatment of allergic asthma and nasal polyps or severe chronic rhinosi nusitis with nasal polyps; Ilaris to treat fever syndromes, Still's disease, and acute gouty arthritis; Pluvicto to treat prostatespecific membrane anti genpositive metastatic castrationresistant prostate cancer; Sandostatin SC and Sandostatin LAR to treat acromegaly carcinoid tumors and other types of functional gastro intestinal and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors; Zolgensma for the treatment of genetic root cause of spinal muscular atrophy; Lucentis; Leqvio to reduce LDL cholesterol; Lutathera; Scemblix; and Fabhalta. The company focuses on therapeutic areas, such as cardiovascular, renal and metabolic, immunology, neuroscience, oncology, and hematology. It has a license and collaboration agreement with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize Leqvio (inclisiran), a therapy to reduce LDL cholesterol. Novartis AG was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Novartis AG reported revenue of $57.1B in FY2025 versus $44.0B in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was $14.6B in FY2025, compounding −11.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +0.1 % · buybacks/dilution +2.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
NOVN screens 13% overvalued. Compare with Eli Lilly and Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Novartis (SWX:NOVN) Lines Up Pivotal Cardiovascular Data For ESC 2026
- Update: Market Chatter: Novartis Wins UK Court Challenge to Entresto Patent
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - General · 75 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and Company LLY | $1,176 | $389.47 | −67% |
| Johnson & Johnson, JNJ | $265.77 | $169.04 | −36% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $258.15 | $67.72 | −74% |
| Roche Holding RO | CHF 374.60 | CHF 306.54 | −18% |
| Merck & Co MRK | €131.98 | €101.38 | −23% |
| Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB | kr 295.50 | kr 409.46 | +39% |
| Amgen Inc AMGN | $436.99 | $252.02 | −42% |
| Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD | $148.86 | $146.50 | −2% |
| Pfizer Inc PFE | $28.02 | $24.87 | −11% |
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY | $66.58 | $75.98 | +14% |
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