Roche Holding AG (RO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Roche Holding AG stock CHF 327, price CHF 398, upside -17.9%, quality 75 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 216.26 – CHF 398.00 · fair‑value band CHF 203.60 – CHF 437.69 · the CHF 398.00 price screens above the CHF 326.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
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Roche Holding AG engages in the pharmaceuticals and diagnostics businesses in Europe, North America, Latin America, Asia, Africa, Australia, and New Zealand.
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The company offers pharma solutions in the therapeutic areas of anaemia, blood and solid tumors, dermatology, haematology, infectious diseases, inflammatory and autoimmune, neurological disorders, ophthalmology, respiratory disorders, and transplantation.
It also provides in vitro tests for the diagnosis of various diseases, such as cancer, diabetes, Covid-19, hepatitis, human papillomavirus, and others; diagnostic instruments; and digital health solutions. The company was founded in 1896 and is based in Basel, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Roche Holding AG (RO) currently trades at CHF 398.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 326.56, 17.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of CHF 309.72 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the CHF 398.00 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at CHF 114.02, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: CHF 203.60 (bear) to CHF 437.69 (bull), the price of CHF 398.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Roche Holding AG reported revenue of CHF 61.5B in FY2025 versus CHF 62.8B in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 12.9B in FY2025, compounding −1.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 322B Mega · P/E ratio 25.1 · P/S ratio 5.11 · EPS (TTM) CHF 15.33 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 19.6% · Return on equity 38.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 87 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −18%, RO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearCHF 203.60Fair Value CHF 326.56BullCHF 437.69
Price CHF 398.00 · Upside -17.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 4.47 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.0% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.2% vs 4.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 31%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.6% a year for the price and +3.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate durable advantage from pricing power and profitability metrics stands as the main strength while limited signals and thin evidence across other areas remain the chief weakness.
Main risk: Integration hurdles in the autonomous AI laboratories and data platforms would hit the targeted acceleration of discovery and the flow of new molecular entities.
Roche is redirecting R&D efficiency gains into autonomous AI laboratories and proprietary data platforms to lift its Phase 3 success rate above 80 percent and target up to 20 new molecular entities by 2030. These initiatives aim to accelerate discovery in oncology and beyond. Will the productivity lift from AI independence generate enough new launches to ease valuation pressure, or will integration hurdles keep traditional development risks front and center?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 74 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−17.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)38.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets12.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)19.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)36.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−1.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.81× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Roche Holding AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RO
Frequently asked questions
Is Roche Holding AG (RO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 326.56 versus a price of CHF 398.00, about −18% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RO?
Our model-based fair value for Roche Holding AG is CHF 326.56 (as of Oct 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 398.00.
What is the quality score of RO?
Roche Holding AG has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Roche Holding AG (RO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 326.56 (as of Oct 20, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 203.60, optimistic scenario CHF 437.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Roche Holding AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 326.56, about −18% upside versus a price of CHF 398.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 203.60, optimistic scenario CHF 437.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Roche Holding AG (RO)?
Roche Holding AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 63.0B (latest available figure, as of Oct 20, 2026).
Does Roche Holding AG pay a dividend?
Roche Holding AG currently shows a dividend yield of 2.46% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 20, 2026).
What growth is priced into Roche Holding AG (RO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Roche Holding AG would have to grow free cash flow by +6.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.1 % per year. As of Oct 20, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RO use?
Our models discount Roche Holding AG at 7.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Roche Holding AG that is +6.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Roche Holding AG (RO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Roche Holding AG grew +1.1 % a year. The price currently implies +6.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Roche Holding AG (RO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Roche Holding AG (+6.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Roche Holding AG (RO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.37 %: that much free cash flow Roche Holding AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Roche Holding AG (RO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Roche Holding AG it is CHF 326.56 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026), against a price of CHF 398.00. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Roche Holding AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 20, 2026, RO trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 398.00, fair value CHF 326.56, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 398.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 326.56). For Roche Holding AG the two are CHF 71.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Roche Holding AG worth?
The market values Roche Holding AG at about CHF 322B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 20, 2026). Per share that is CHF 398.00; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 326.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RO?
Our models span a range for Roche Holding AG: cautious scenario CHF 203.60, base CHF 326.56, optimistic CHF 437.69 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026, price CHF 398.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RO?
Roche Holding AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.1 (as of Oct 20, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 326.56 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 9.5, P/S 5.1, EV/EBITDA 14.3.
What is the PEG ratio of RO?
The PEG ratio of Roche Holding AG is 1.71 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 20, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Roche Holding AG (RO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Roche Holding AG (as of Oct 20, 2026): return on equity 38.1%, debt of 0.81 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RO from its 52-week high?
Roche Holding AG trades at CHF 398.00, at its 52-week high of CHF 398.00 and 51% above the low of CHF 263.98 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 326.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Roche Holding AG?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Merck & Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Roche Holding AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 20, 2026: price CHF 398.00, calculated fair value CHF 326.56 (−18%), Quality Score 75/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RO calculated?
We run Roche Holding AG through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 326.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Roche Holding AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Roche Holding AG (RO)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was CHF 398.00. Our model-based fair value is CHF 326.56, about −18% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Roche Holding AG right now?
A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range (CHF 203.60 to CHF 437.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Roche Holding AG (RO) come from?
Earnings per share at Roche Holding AG grew +2.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.9 %, EBIT margin −2.2 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Roche Holding AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Roche Holding AG (RO)?
The market capitalisation of Roche Holding AG is CHF 322B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Roche Holding AG (RO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Roche Holding AG is 5.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Roche Holding AG (RO)?
Earnings per share at Roche Holding AG are CHF 15.33 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Roche Holding AG (RO)?
The dividend yield of Roche Holding AG is 2.5% (payout 63.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Roche Holding AG (RO)?
The net margin of Roche Holding AG is 19.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Roche Holding AG (RO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Roche Holding AG is 38.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Roche Holding AG (RO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Roche Holding AG is 17.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Roche Holding AG (RO)?
The operating margin of Roche Holding AG is 36.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Roche Holding AG (RO)?
Revenue at Roche Holding AG is growing −1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Roche Holding AG (RO)?
Earnings per share at Roche Holding AG are growing −7.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Roche Holding AG (RO) carry?
The net debt of Roche Holding AG is CHF 27.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 20, 2026