Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $1.1T · ISIN US5324571083
What is Eli Lilly and Company really worth?
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY · US
A solid business, but trading 198% above our fair value of $389.47.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +3.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($582.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($215.95 to $582.33). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $192.74 – $1,280 · fair‑value band $215.95 – $582.33 · the $1,160 price screens above the $389.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) currently trades at $1,160, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $389.47, implying the stock looks roughly 197.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $374.54 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $1,160 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $103.86, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Eli Lilly and Company generated revenue of $72.2B at a net margin of 35.0%. Revenue grew 55.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 107.5%. Net debt stands at $35.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $215.95 (bear case) to $582.33 (bull case); at $1,160, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −66%, LLY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $14.91 per share, which is 3.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($374.54) versus Asset-Based ($19.94). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally.
Full company description
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally. The company offers cardiometabolic health products, including Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, Humulin U-500 for diabetes; Jardiance, Mounjaro, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes; and Zepbound for obesity. It also provides oncology products, such as Cyramza for the second-line treatment of gastric cancer or gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers and head and neck cancers; Inluriyo for breast cancer; Jaypirca for chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma; Retevmo for the treatment of metastatic NSCLC; TYVYT for classic hodgkin's lymphoma; and Verzenio for breast cancer. In addition, the company offers immunology products, which include Ebglyss for severe atopic dermatitis; Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, severe alopecia areata, and COVID-19; Omvoh for ulcerative colitis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis. Further, it provides Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache, as well as Kisubla for symptomatic Alzheimer's disease. The company has collaborations with Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for the Jardiance product family; and F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd and Genentech, Inc. for lebrikizumab, as well as license agreements with Almirall, S.A. for Ebglyss; and Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd for orforglipron; and strategic collaboration with Ascidian Therapeutics for discovery and development of therapies for undisclosed monogenic kidney diseases. Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Eli Lilly and Company reported revenue of $65.2B in FY2025 versus $28.3B in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was $20.6B in FY2025, compounding +38.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +10.1 % · buybacks/dilution +2.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
LLY screens 198% overvalued. Compare with Johnson & Johnson, →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Should Eli Lilly Investors Be Worried About a Threat From Amylyx?
- Why Is Eli Lilly (LLY) Getting A Bigger Role For Mounjaro?
- AbbVie vs. Eli Lilly and: Which Healthcare Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
- Is OmniAb (OABI)’s Eli Lilly (LLY) Partnership a Game Changer for OABI?
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - General · 75 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson & Johnson, JNJ | $265.77 | $169.04 | −36% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $258.15 | $67.72 | −74% |
| Roche Holding RO | CHF 374.60 | CHF 306.54 | −18% |
| Merck & Co MRK | €131.98 | €101.38 | −23% |
| Novartis AG NOVN | CHF 123.74 | CHF 114.90 | −7% |
| Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB | kr 295.50 | kr 409.46 | +39% |
| Amgen Inc AMGN | $436.99 | $252.02 | −42% |
| Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD | $148.86 | $146.50 | −2% |
| Pfizer Inc PFE | $28.02 | $24.87 | −11% |
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY | $66.58 | $75.98 | +14% |
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