Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Eli Lilly and Company stock $749, price $1,271, upside -41.0%, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $211.80 – $1,284 · fair‑value band $401.70 – $974.22 · the $1,271 price screens above the $749.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
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Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally.
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The company offers cardiometabolic health products, including Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, Humulin U-500 for diabetes; Jardiance, Mounjaro, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes; and Zepbound for obesity.
It also provides oncology products, such as Cyramza for the second-line treatment of gastric cancer or gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers and head and neck cancers; Inluriyo for breast cancer; Jaypirca for chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma; Retevmo for the treatment of metastatic NSCLC; TYVYT for classic hodgkin's lymphoma; and Verzenio for breast cancer.
In addition, the company offers immunology products, which include Ebglyss for severe atopic dermatitis; Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, severe alopecia areata, and COVID-19; Omvoh for ulcerative colitis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis.
Further, it provides Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache, as well as Kisubla for symptomatic Alzheimer's disease.
The company has collaborations with Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for the Jardiance product family; and F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd and Genentech, Inc. for lebrikizumab, as well as license agreements with Almirall, S.A. for Ebglyss; and Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd for orforglipron; and strategic collaboration with Ascidian Therapeutics for discovery and development of therapies for undisclosed monogenic kidney diseases.
Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Stock analysis
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) currently trades at $1,271, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $749.40, 41.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $374.70 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $1,271 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $117.76, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $401.70 (bear) to $974.22 (bull), the price of $1,271 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Eli Lilly and Company reported revenue of $65.2B in FY2025 versus $28.3B in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was $20.6B in FY2025, compounding +38.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1T Mega · P/E ratio 42.7 · P/S ratio 14.3 · EPS (TTM) $29.79 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 33.5% · Return on equity 102% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 98 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −41%, LLY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($10.61 to $565.53). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$401.70Fair Value $749.40Bull$974.22
Price $1,271 · Upside -41.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($18.86 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+44.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.6% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+26.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.28.8% vs 26.6%, steady
2025 sits 250% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+38.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +35.4% a year for the price and +14.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Strong innovation efficiency and pricing power support durable advantage in select therapies, while patent cliffs remain the central vulnerability for sustained performance.
Main risk: Novo Nordisk with semaglutide products and other firms launching oral GLP-1 pills or alternative obesity treatments could capture share and force lower prices on Lilly's tirzepatide therapies.
Bull case: Lilly could leverage its AI investments and expanding pipeline in neurology, immunology and oncology to offset any pressure on GLP-1 products through new differentiated therapies.
Bear case: If generics and rival orals erode tirzepatide dominance while pricing litigation constrains net revenues, Lilly's growth could slow sharply as dependence on a few cardiometabolic drugs persists.
Eli Lilly is testing whether combining its psoriasis treatment Taltz with Zepbound delivers broader effects on immune and metabolic markers in patients who have both conditions. Recent exploratory data indicate the pair changes more proteins and genes than Taltz alone. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will pipeline expansions like this create durable new revenue streams or mainly confirm that much of the upside is already priced in?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 74 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Above median
Fair Value upside−41.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)102.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets18.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)33.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)54.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)47.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.54× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)42.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B42.80× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)14.26× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow126.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA28.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.14× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 40
HEALTH (low debt)23· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Eli Lilly and Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LLY
Frequently asked questions
Is Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $749.40 versus a price of $1,271, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LLY?
Our model-based fair value for Eli Lilly and Company is $749.40 (as of Oct 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1,271.
What is the quality score of LLY?
Eli Lilly and Company has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $749.40 (as of Oct 21, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $401.70, optimistic scenario $974.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Eli Lilly and Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $749.40, about −41% upside versus a price of $1,271 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $401.70, optimistic scenario $974.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
Eli Lilly and Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $79.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 21, 2026).
Does Eli Lilly and Company pay a dividend?
Eli Lilly and Company currently shows a dividend yield of 0.51% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 21, 2026).
What growth is priced into Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Eli Lilly and Company would have to grow free cash flow by +38.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.6 % per year. As of Oct 21, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LLY use?
Our models discount Eli Lilly and Company at 7.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Eli Lilly and Company that is +38.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Eli Lilly and Company grew +21.6 % a year. The price currently implies +38.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Eli Lilly and Company (+38.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.79 %: that much free cash flow Eli Lilly and Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Eli Lilly and Company it is $749.40 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026), against a price of $1,271. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Eli Lilly and Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 21, 2026, LLY trades above its calculated fair value: price $1,271, fair value $749.40, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1,271); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($749.40). For Eli Lilly and Company the two are $521.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Eli Lilly and Company worth?
The market values Eli Lilly and Company at about $1.1T (market capitalisation, as of Oct 21, 2026). Per share that is $1,271; our models calculate a fair value of $749.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LLY?
Our models span a range for Eli Lilly and Company: cautious scenario $401.70, base $749.40, optimistic $974.22 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026, price $1,271). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LLY?
Eli Lilly and Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 42.7 (as of Oct 21, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $749.40 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 46.8. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 42.8, P/S 14.3, EV/EBITDA 28.0.
What is the PEG ratio of LLY?
The PEG ratio of Eli Lilly and Company is 1.14 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 21, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Eli Lilly and Company (as of Oct 21, 2026): return on equity 102.3%, debt of 1.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LLY from its 52-week high?
Eli Lilly and Company trades at $1,271, about 1% below its 52-week high of $1,284 and 60% above the low of $794.56 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $749.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Eli Lilly and Company?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, Merck & Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Eli Lilly and Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 21, 2026: price $1,271, calculated fair value $749.40 (−41%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LLY calculated?
We run Eli Lilly and Company through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $749.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Eli Lilly and Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $1,271. Our model-based fair value is $749.40, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Eli Lilly and Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($974.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($401.70 to $974.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) come from?
Earnings per share at Eli Lilly and Company grew +21.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.6 %, EBIT margin +9.5 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Eli Lilly and Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
The market capitalisation of Eli Lilly and Company is $1.1T. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Eli Lilly and Company is 14.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
Earnings per share at Eli Lilly and Company are $29.79 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 42.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
The dividend yield of Eli Lilly and Company is 0.5% (payout 21.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
The net margin of Eli Lilly and Company is 33.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Eli Lilly and Company is 102% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Eli Lilly and Company is 19.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
The operating margin of Eli Lilly and Company is 54.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
Revenue at Eli Lilly and Company is growing +47.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
Earnings per share at Eli Lilly and Company are growing +26.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) carry?
The net debt of Eli Lilly and Company is $35.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 21, 2026