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Amgen Inc (AMGN) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $196B · ISIN US0311621009

What is Amgen Inc really worth?

AI Amgen Inc logo Amgen Inc AMGN · US
Price$444.12
Fair Value$252.02
Upside−43.3%
Quality63/100

A solid business, but trading 76% above our fair value of $252.02.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +7.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 21.0% net margin
✓Wide moat 87/100

Risks

!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
!Weak on future: 29 out of 100

For context

·2.18% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $135.19 – $339.52

Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 7 days ago

Share price +13.9% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($339.52). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($135.19 to $339.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$444.12 $172.66 Fair Value $252.02 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $172.66 – $444.12 · fair‑value band $135.19 – $339.52 · the $444.12 price screens above the $252.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

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Analysis

Amgen Inc (AMGN) currently trades at $444.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $252.02, implying the stock looks roughly 76.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $261.59 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $444.12 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $85.31, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Amgen Inc generated revenue of $37.2B at a net margin of 21.0%. Revenue grew 5.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 101.3%. Net debt stands at $45.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $135.19 (bear case) to $339.52 (bull case); at $444.12, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 71% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −43%, AMGN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.17 per share, which is 1.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $111.82 $251.52 $487.04 75
EPV $90.33 $118.01 $142.23 74
Growth DCF $111.59 $242.83 $460.06 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $111.82 $251.52 $487.04 75
Owner Earnings $179.44 $369.49 $689.91 72
5Y Revenue Exit $79.84 $185.80 $326.60 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $175.20 $377.86 $629.17 72
5Y P/E Exit $130.62 $288.08 $464.67 68
10Y Revenue Exit $84.41 $187.63 $339.39 63
10Y EBITDA Exit $151.80 $326.52 $587.04 65
10Y P/E Exit $122.52 $261.59 $452.40 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $97.15 $414.35 $565.90 64
Lynch FV $105.81 $151.16 $196.51 61
PEG = 1.0 $105.81 $151.16 $196.51 57
EPV $90.33 $118.01 $142.23 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $87.17 $181.25 $287.53 66
DDM Multi-Stage $87.17 $152.83 $190.23 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $235.74 $314.32 $392.90 63
P/S Multiple $178.70 $238.26 $297.83 58
P/B Multiple $54.14 $72.19 $90.24 55
EV/EBIT $176.47 $260.54 $344.61 65
EV/EBITDA $232.49 $335.23 $437.97 67
EV/Revenue $67.22 $128.49 $189.76 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.02 $10.75 $16.04 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $111.59 $242.83 $460.06 74
Rev-Margin DCF $79.84 $184.32 $315.89 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income $65.63 $85.31 $729.56 64
ROIC Compounder $110.60 $173.37 $254.66 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $182.82 $261.17 $339.52 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($261.59) versus Asset-Based ($10.75). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 30.9
P/S ratio 6.48 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $14.38 price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.9
Dividend yield 2.2% payout 67.2%
Net margin 21.0% FY2025
Return on equity 101% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 11.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 33.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $37.2B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.8% 3y avg +11.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +4.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $8.1B FY2025
Net debt $45.5B FY2025 · ≈ 5.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87

Profitability 64
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 79
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 20
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 42
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 80
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Amgen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide. The company's principal products include Enbrel for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, and psoriatic arthritis; Otezla for the treatment of adult patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Behçet's disease; …

Full company description

Amgen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide. The company's principal products include Enbrel for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, and psoriatic arthritis; Otezla for the treatment of adult patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Behçet's disease; Prolia to treat postmenopausal women with osteoporosis; XGEVA for skeletal-related events prevention; Repatha, which reduces the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary revascularization; Nplate for the treatment of patients with immune thrombocytopenia; KYPROLIS to treat patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Aranesp to treat a lower-than-normal number of red blood cells and anemia; EVENITY for the treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal for women; Vectibix to treat patients with wild-type RAS metastatic colorectal cancer; BLINCYTO for the treatment of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia; TEPEZZA to treat thyroid eye disease; and KRYSTEXXA for the treatment of chronic refractory gout. It also markets other products, including PROLIA, REPATHA, OTEZLA, ENBREL, EVENITY, XGEVA, TEPEZZA, BLINCYTO, NPLATE, TEZSPIRE, KYPROLIS, ARANESP, KRYSTEXXA AND VECTIBIX, MVASI, PAVBLU, UPLIZNA, IMDELLTRA/IMDYLLTRA, AMJEVITA/AMGEVITA, TAVNEOS, NEULASTA, LUMAKRAS/LUMYKRAS, RAVICTI, PARSABIV, AIMOVIG, WEZLANA/WEZENLA, AND PROCYSBI. The company serves healthcare providers, including physicians or their clinics, dialysis centers, hospitals, and pharmacies. It distributes its products through pharmaceutical wholesale distributors. The company has collaboration agreements with AstraZeneca plc for the development and commercialization of TEZSPIRE; BEONE MEDICINES LTD. to develop and commercialize Aimovig; UCB for the development and commercialization of EVENITY; Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. for rocatinlimab development and commercialization; and BeiGene, Ltd. for oncology products expansion and development. The company was incorporated in 1980 and is he

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Amgen Inc reported revenue of $36.7B in FY2025 versus $26.0B in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was $7.7B in FY2025, compounding +7.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$36.7B
Latest YoY
+9.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+2.0% (−0.2 + 2.2)
Revenue +9.1%/yr
FY21 $26.0B
FY22 $26.3B
FY23 $28.2B
FY24 $33.4B
FY25 $36.7B
Net income +7.0%/yr
FY21 $5.9B
FY22 $6.6B
FY23 $6.7B
FY24 $4.1B
FY25 $7.7B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +3.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +8.9 %

of which total revenue +4.8 % · buybacks/dilution +3.9 %

EBIT margin −4.0 %
Tax rate −0.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.2 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

AMGN screens 76% overvalued. Compare with Eli Lilly and Company →

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Amgen Inc · Fair Value
$252.02 −76%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Amgen Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMGN

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - General · 75 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Above median
Fair Value upside −43% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 101% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 34% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.2% · Above median
Debt / equity 5.78× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 30.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 22.65× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 5.27× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 24.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 14.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 2.02× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE29 · sector 29
PAST100 · sector 49
HEALTH0 · sector 94
DIVIDEND44 · sector 42

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 35/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Eli Lilly and Company LLY $1,176 $389.47 −67%
Johnson & Johnson, JNJ $265.77 $169.04 −36%
AbbVie Inc ABBV $258.15 $67.72 −74%
Roche Holding RO CHF 374.60 CHF 306.54 −18%
Merck & Co MRK €131.98 €101.38 −23%
Novartis AG NOVN CHF 123.74 CHF 114.90 −7%
Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB kr 295.50 kr 409.46 +39%
Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD $148.86 $146.50 −2%
Pfizer Inc PFE $28.02 $24.87 −11%
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY $66.58 $75.98 +14%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Amgen Inc (AMGN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $252.02 versus a price of $444.12, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AMGN?
Our model-based fair value for Amgen Inc is $252.02 (as of Aug 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $444.12.
What is the quality score of AMGN?
Amgen Inc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Amgen Inc (AMGN)?
Amgen Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $37.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 29, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AMGN?
The net profit margin of Amgen Inc is about 21.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 21.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Amgen Inc pay a dividend?
Amgen Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.18% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 29, 2026).
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