Merck & Company Inc (MRK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Merck & Company Inc stock $129, price $150, upside -13.8%, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $61.51 – $155.53 · fair‑value band $74.31 – $179.82 · the $149.88 price screens above the $129.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Merck & Co., Inc. operates as a healthcare company worldwide.
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It offers human health pharmaceutical for various areas under the Keytruda, Keytruda Qlex, Welireg, Gardasil, ProQuad, M-M-R II, Varivax, Vaxneuvance, Capvaxive, RotaTeq, Pneumovax 23, Bridion, Prevymis, Dificid, Zerbaxa, Winrevair, Adempas/ Verquvo, Ohtuvayre, Lagevrio, Isentress/Isentress HD, Delstrigo, Pifeltro, Belsomra, Januvia, and Janumet brands.
The company also provides veterinary pharmaceuticals, vaccines and health management solutions and services, such as livestock products under the Nuflor, Bovilis/Vista, Bovilis Cryptium, Banamine, Estrumate, Matrix, Resflor, Zuprevo, Revalor, Safe-Guard, M+Pac, Porcilis, Circumvent, Nobilis/Innovax, Paracox and Coccivac, Exzolt, Slice, Imvixa, Clynav, Aquavac/Norvax, Aquaflor, Flexolt brands; Allflex Livestock Intelligence solutions; and companion animal products under the Bravecto One-Month, Bravecto Injectable/Quantum, Bravecto TriUNO, Bravecto Plus, Sentinel Spectrum, Sentinel Flavor Tabs, Numelvi, Optimmune, Nobivac NXT, GilvetMab, Otomax, Mometamax, Mometamax Ultra, Posatex, Caninsulin/Vetsulin, Panacur, Safeguard, Regumate, Prestige, Scalibor/Exspot, Sure Petcare, and Home Again brands.
It has development and commercialization agreement for three of Daiichi Sankyo's deruxtecan ADC candidates; AstraZeneca PLC to co-development and co-commercialize AstraZeneca's Lynparza products for multiple cancer types; licensed to develop, manufacture and commercialize LM-299, a novel investigational PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody from LaNova; and collaboration agreement with Eisai Co., Ltd., Bayer AG, and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics LP, as well Moderna, Inc. Merck & Co., Inc. has strategic collaboration with Infinimmune, Inc. to discover and develop antibodies against multiple therapeutic targets.
The company was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Rahway, New Jersey.
Stock analysis
Merck & Company Inc (MRK) currently trades at $149.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $129.26, 13.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $138.32 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the $149.88 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $40.10, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $74.31 (bear) to $179.82 (bull), the price of $149.88 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Merck & Company Inc reported revenue of $64.9B in FY2025 versus $48.7B in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was $18.3B in FY2025, compounding +8.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $371B Mega · P/E ratio 120.9 · P/S ratio 5.57 · EPS (TTM) $1.24 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 7.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −14%, MRK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$74.31Fair Value $129.26Bull$179.82
Price $149.88 · Upside -13.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.64/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Per share before 2021divided by the spin-off factor 1.048
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.9% vs 17.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 36%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.8% a year for the price and +1.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Merck shows strength through advancing oncology candidates and animal health expansion alongside solid margins and ROE, yet limited public signals on human capital innovation and governance indicate only moderate durable advantage.
Main risk: The 2028 patent loss on Keytruda risks insufficient new revenue from the pipeline and diversification to replace slowing contributions, directly hitting net growth.
Merck is advancing a broad set of new oncology candidates and other launches that have produced positive trial data ahead of schedule, alongside steady expansion in its animal health business. The core tension lies in whether these efforts can generate enough new revenue to replace slowing contributions from Keytruda before its 2028 patent loss creates real pressure. Will the pipeline and diversification deliver net growth or merely cushion a gradual decline?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 74 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Above median
Fair Value upside−13.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.0% · Below median
Return on assets13.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)4.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−0.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.89× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Merck & Company Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MRK
Frequently asked questions
Is Merck & Company Inc (MRK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $129.26 versus a price of $149.88, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MRK?
Our model-based fair value for Merck & Company Inc is $129.26 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $149.88.
What is the quality score of MRK?
Merck & Company Inc has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Merck & Company Inc (MRK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $129.26 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $74.31, optimistic scenario $179.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Merck & Company Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $129.26, about −14% upside versus a price of $149.88 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $74.31, optimistic scenario $179.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Merck & Company Inc (MRK)?
Merck & Company Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $66.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Merck & Company Inc pay a dividend?
Merck & Company Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.22% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Merck & Company Inc (MRK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Merck & Company Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +12.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.4 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MRK use?
Our models discount Merck & Company Inc at 7.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.23, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Merck & Company Inc that is +12.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Merck & Company Inc (MRK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Merck & Company Inc grew +9.4 % a year. The price currently implies +12.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Merck & Company Inc (MRK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Merck & Company Inc (+12.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Merck & Company Inc (MRK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.34 %: that much free cash flow Merck & Company Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Merck & Company Inc (MRK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Merck & Company Inc it is $129.26 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $149.88. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Merck & Company Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, MRK trades above its calculated fair value: price $149.88, fair value $129.26, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MRK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($149.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($129.26). For Merck & Company Inc the two are $20.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Merck & Company Inc worth?
The market values Merck & Company Inc at about $371B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $149.88; our models calculate a fair value of $129.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MRK?
Our models span a range for Merck & Company Inc: cautious scenario $74.31, base $129.26, optimistic $179.82 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $149.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MRK?
Merck & Company Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 120.9 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $129.26 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings: 14.9. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 7.0, P/S 5.6, EV/EBITDA 14.0.
What is the PEG ratio of MRK?
The PEG ratio of Merck & Company Inc is 2.70 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Merck & Company Inc (MRK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Merck & Company Inc (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 7.0%, debt of 0.89 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MRK from its 52-week high?
Merck & Company Inc trades at $149.88, about 4% below its 52-week high of $155.53 and 87% above the low of $80.14 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $129.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Merck & Company Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Merck & Company Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $149.88, calculated fair value $129.26 (−14%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MRK calculated?
We run Merck & Company Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $129.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Merck & Company Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Merck & Company Inc (MRK)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $149.88. Our model-based fair value is $129.26, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Merck & Company Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($74.31 to $179.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Merck & Company Inc (MRK) come from?
Earnings per share at Merck & Company Inc grew +7.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.4 %, EBIT margin +4.8 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Merck & Company Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Merck & Company Inc (MRK)?
The market capitalisation of Merck & Company Inc is $371B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Merck & Company Inc (MRK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Merck & Company Inc is 5.57 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Merck & Company Inc (MRK)?
Earnings per share at Merck & Company Inc are $1.24 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 120.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Merck & Company Inc (MRK)?
The dividend yield of Merck & Company Inc is 2.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Merck & Company Inc (MRK)?
The net margin of Merck & Company Inc is 4.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Merck & Company Inc (MRK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Merck & Company Inc is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Merck & Company Inc (MRK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Merck & Company Inc is 13.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Merck & Company Inc (MRK)?
The operating margin of Merck & Company Inc is −0.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Merck & Company Inc (MRK)?
Revenue at Merck & Company Inc is growing +5.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Merck & Company Inc (MRK)?
Earnings per share at Merck & Company Inc are growing −19.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Merck & Company Inc (MRK) carry?
The net debt of Merck & Company Inc is $36.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026