Merck & Company Inc (MRK) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $305B · ISIN US58933Y1055
What is Merck & Company Inc really worth?
Merck & Company Inc
MRK · US
A solid business, but trading 22% above our fair value of $125.32.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +19.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The model range is unusually wide ($70.92 to $187.51). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $61.42 – $156.45 · fair‑value band $70.92 – $187.51 · the $152.34 price screens above the $125.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Merck & Company Inc (MRK) currently trades at $152.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $125.32, implying the stock looks roughly 21.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $138.17 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $152.34 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.27, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Merck & Company Inc generated revenue of $65.8B at a net margin of 13.6%. Revenue grew 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.9%. Net debt stands at $36.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $70.92 (bear case) to $187.51 (bull case); at $152.34, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 104% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −18%, MRK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.1827 per share, which is 0.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($138.17) versus Asset-Based ($14.27). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 90
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Merck & Co., Inc. operates as a healthcare company worldwide. It offers human health pharmaceutical for various areas under the Keytruda, Keytruda Qlex, Welireg, Gardasil, ProQuad, M-M-R II, Varivax, Vaxneuvance, Capvaxive, RotaTeq, Pneumovax 23, Bridion, Prevymis, Dificid, Zerbaxa, Winrevair, Adempas/ Verquvo, Ohtuvayre, Lagevrio, Isentress/Isentress HD, …
Full company description
Merck & Co., Inc. operates as a healthcare company worldwide. It offers human health pharmaceutical for various areas under the Keytruda, Keytruda Qlex, Welireg, Gardasil, ProQuad, M-M-R II, Varivax, Vaxneuvance, Capvaxive, RotaTeq, Pneumovax 23, Bridion, Prevymis, Dificid, Zerbaxa, Winrevair, Adempas/ Verquvo, Ohtuvayre, Lagevrio, Isentress/Isentress HD, Delstrigo, Pifeltro, Belsomra, Januvia, and Janumet brands. The company also provides veterinary pharmaceuticals, vaccines and health management solutions and services, such as livestock products under the Nuflor, Bovilis/Vista, Bovilis Cryptium, Banamine, Estrumate, Matrix, Resflor, Zuprevo, Revalor, Safe-Guard, M+Pac, Porcilis, Circumvent, Nobilis/Innovax, Paracox and Coccivac, Exzolt, Slice, Imvixa, Clynav, Aquavac/Norvax, Aquaflor, Flexolt brands; Allflex Livestock Intelligence solutions; and companion animal products under the Bravecto One-Month, Bravecto Injectable/Quantum, Bravecto TriUNO, Bravecto Plus, Sentinel Spectrum, Sentinel Flavor Tabs, Numelvi, Optimmune, Nobivac NXT, GilvetMab, Otomax, Mometamax, Mometamax Ultra, Posatex, Caninsulin/Vetsulin, Panacur, Safeguard, Regumate, Prestige, Scalibor/Exspot, Sure Petcare, and Home Again brands. It has development and commercialization agreement for three of Daiichi Sankyo's deruxtecan ADC candidates; AstraZeneca PLC to co-development and co-commercialize AstraZeneca's Lynparza products for multiple cancer types; licensed to develop, manufacture and commercialize LM-299, a novel investigational PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody from LaNova; and collaboration agreement with Eisai Co., Ltd., Bayer AG, and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics LP, as well Moderna, Inc. Merck & Co., Inc. has strategic collaboration with Infinimmune, Inc. to discover and develop antibodies against multiple therapeutic targets. The company was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Rahway, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Merck & Company Inc reported revenue of $64.9B in FY2025 versus $48.7B in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was $18.3B in FY2025, compounding +8.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.0 % · buybacks/dilution +1.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MRK screens 22% overvalued. Compare with Eli Lilly and Company →
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - General · 75 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and Company LLY | $1,176 | $389.47 | −67% |
| Johnson & Johnson, JNJ | $265.77 | $169.04 | −36% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $258.15 | $67.72 | −74% |
| Roche Holding RO | CHF 374.60 | CHF 306.54 | −18% |
| Novartis AG NOVN | CHF 123.74 | CHF 114.90 | −7% |
| Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB | kr 295.50 | kr 409.46 | +39% |
| Amgen Inc AMGN | $436.99 | $252.02 | −42% |
| Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD | $148.86 | $146.50 | −2% |
| Pfizer Inc PFE | $28.02 | $24.87 | −11% |
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY | $66.58 | $75.98 | +14% |
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