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STOCK COMPARISON

Eli Lilly and vs Novartis: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Eli Lilly and (LLY) and Novartis (NOVN) compare, as of Sep 5, 2026.

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Novartis as the less overvalued of the two: Eli Lilly and trades at $1,160 versus a fair value of $389 (-66%), while Novartis trades at CHF 130 versus CHF 115 (-11%).
Eli Lilly and
LLY · USD · Health Care
-66%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$1,160
Fair Value$389
Quality69/100
Novartis
NOVN.SW · CHF · Health Care
-11%
upside to fair value
overvalued
PriceCHF 130
Fair ValueCHF 115
Quality85/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

Eli Lilly andNovartis
Valuation
42.2×P/E (TTM)22.1×
14.67×P/S (TTM)5.21×
39.94×P/B6.39×
30.2×EV/EBITDA13.6×
1.54×PEG4.17×
−66.4%Fair value upside−11.3%
0.5%Dividend yield2.9%
$6.23Dividend per shareCHF 3.70
Profitability
49%Operating margin30%
1.42×EBIT margin trend (5Y)1.54×
107%Return on equity35%
21%Return on assets11%
Growth
56%Revenue growth (YoY)-1%
31.7%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)9.5%
21.6%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)2.7%
+29.3%Value creation/yr+11.1%
Balance & size
37.3×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)14.4×
1.54×Debt / equity0.61×
$1.1TMarket cap$295B
mixedGrowth qualityhealthy

Novartis leads: 7 to 9 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Eli Lilly andof which business quality 65 · market factors 78 Novartisof which business quality 80 · market factors 75
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
85
75
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
86
55
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
51
88
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
53
70
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
15
98
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
77
94
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
71
58
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
92
84
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
93
100

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyEli Lilly andPrice $1,160NovartisPrice CHF 130
DCF Models-71%below the price$334+17%above the priceCHF 152
Earnings-Based-79%below the price$239-34%below the priceCHF 85.66
Dividend Discount-90%below the price$115-48%below the priceCHF 67.91
Multiples-69%below the price$3580%close to the priceCHF 129
Asset-Based-98%below the price$19.94-88%below the priceCHF 16.19
Growth DCF-84%below the price$187-2%close to the priceCHF 127
Economic Profit-70%below the price$347-39%below the priceCHF 79.43
Growth Earnings-68%below the price$375+5%close to the priceCHF 137
Minimum-98%below the price$19.94-88%below the priceCHF 16.19
Maximum-68%below the price$375+17%above the priceCHF 152
Median-75%below the price$287-18%below the priceCHF 106
Geometric mean-84%below the price$189-35%below the priceCHF 84.31

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Eli Lilly and: 26 of 26 models see the stock below the current price.

Novartis: 14 of 25 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

Eli Lilly and
Bear $216Fair Value $389Bull $582
$1,160 = current price (white tick)
Novartis
Bear CHF 82.83Fair Value CHF 115Bull CHF 147
CHF 130 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Eli Lilly and · Health Care

Quality score69 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-66% · bottom 25%

Novartis · Health Care

Quality score85 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-11% · above median

Bottom line

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Novartis as the less overvalued of the two: Eli Lilly and trades at $1,160 versus a fair value of $389 (-66%), while Novartis trades at CHF 130 versus CHF 115 (-11%).

Novartis has the higher quality score (85/100).

See the full analysis →
Eli Lilly and · Novartis

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.