Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CH · Market cap CHF 2.3B · ISIN CH0002178181
What is Stadler Rail AG really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 92% above our fair value of CHF 15.35.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +18.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 19.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (CHF 10.75 to CHF 19.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 17.55 – CHF 39.71 · fair‑value band CHF 10.75 – CHF 19.96 · the CHF 29.54 price screens above the CHF 15.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL) currently trades at CHF 29.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 15.35, implying the stock looks roughly 92.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of CHF 18.49 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the CHF 29.54 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at CHF 2.63, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Stadler Rail AG generated revenue of CHF 3.7B at a net margin of 2.4%. Revenue grew 16.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.4%. Net debt stands at CHF 275M. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from CHF 10.75 (bear case) to CHF 19.96 (bull case); at CHF 29.54, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −48%, SRAIL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly CHF 0.2572 per share, which is 1.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (CHF 18.49) versus Dividend Discount (CHF 2.63). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Stadler Rail AG, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of trains in Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Western and Eastern Europe, the Americas, the CIS countries, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Rolling Stock; Service & Components; and Signalling.
Full company description
Stadler Rail AG, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of trains in Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Western and Eastern Europe, the Americas, the CIS countries, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Rolling Stock; Service & Components; and Signalling. The Rolling Stock segment manufactures various rail vehicles comprising high-speed, intercity, regional trains, city transport, locomotives, and tailor made, as well as passenger coaches, light rails, and trams. The Service & Component segment provides revision, spare parts, vehicle repair, modernization and overhauling, and maintenance services; and supplies vehicle components, such as car bodies or bogies. The Signalling segment develops and distributes various signalling solutions for vehicles and infrastructures. This segment offers various solutions in the areas of train protection, communication-based train control for driverless operation, automatic train operation, driving assistance systems, interlocking technologies, and other trackside components for automatic train protection system, as well as services for the planning and implementation of security systems. The company was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Bussnang, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Stadler Rail AG reported revenue of CHF 3.7B in FY2025 versus CHF 3.6B in FY2021, a compound +0.3%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 88.0M in FY2025, compounding −9.9%/yr from FY2021.
SRAIL screens 92% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $307.41 | $141.29 | −54% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $48.99 | $12.62 | −74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $94.12 | $34.33 | −64% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNR | C$175.06 | C$92.68 | −47% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $332.96 | $114.36 | −66% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $297.57 | $144.80 | −51% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.87 | ¥5.65 | +16% |
| MTR Corporation 0066 | HK$32.04 | HK$17.85 | −44% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.98 | ¥9.53 | +59% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.72 | ¥6.22 | +32% |
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