Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $78.9B · ISIN US6558441084
What is Norfolk Southern Corporation really worth?
Norfolk Southern Corporation
NSC · US
A solid business, but trading 187% above our fair value of $114.36.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −3.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($269.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($77.99 to $269.53). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $173.18 – $352.98 · fair‑value band $77.99 – $269.53 · the $327.83 price screens above the $114.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) currently trades at $327.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $114.36, implying the stock looks roughly 186.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $217.45 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $327.83 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $43.67, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Norfolk Southern Corporation generated revenue of $12.2B at a net margin of 21.9%. Revenue grew 0.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.6%. Net debt stands at $15.6B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $77.99 (bear case) to $269.53 (bull case); at $327.83, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −65%, NSC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.39 per share, which is 3.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($217.45) versus Growth DCF ($43.67). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Norfolk Southern Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods in the United States.
Full company description
Norfolk Southern Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods in the United States. The company transports agriculture, forest, and consumer products comprising soybeans, wheat, corn, fertilizers, livestock and poultry feed, food products, food oils, flour, sweeteners, ethanol, lumber and wood products, pulp board and paper products, wood fibers, wood pulp, beverages, and canned goods; chemicals, including sulfur and related chemicals, petroleum products comprising crude oil, chlorine and bleaching compounds, plastics, rubber, industrial chemicals, chemical wastes, sand, and natural gas liquids; metals and construction materials, such as steel, aluminum products, machinery, scrap metals, cement, aggregates, minerals, clay, transportation equipment, and military-related products; and automotive, including finished motor vehicles and automotive parts, as well as coal. It also transports overseas freight through various Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports; and operates an intermodal network. Norfolk Southern Corporation was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Norfolk Southern Corporation reported revenue of $12.2B in FY2025 versus $11.1B in FY2021, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was $2.9B in FY2025, compounding −1.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.5 % · buybacks/dilution +3.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
NSC screens 187% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Union Pacific (UNP) is Winning the Railroad Race. Can Norfolk Southern (NSC) Catch Up through the Merger?
- Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern defend rail merger application as STB review advances
- STB Should Reject Opponents’ Baseless Prima Facie Challenges; Union Pacific – Norfolk Southern Merger Application Easily Meets the Standard
Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 25/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $307.41 | $141.29 | −54% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $48.99 | $12.62 | −74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $94.12 | $34.33 | −64% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNR | C$175.06 | C$92.68 | −47% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $297.57 | $144.80 | −51% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.87 | ¥5.65 | +16% |
| MTR Corporation 0066 | HK$32.04 | HK$17.85 | −44% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.98 | ¥9.53 | +59% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.72 | ¥6.22 | +32% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 146,900 KRW | 125,182 KRW | −15% |
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