Norfolk Southern vs Union Pacific: Fair Value & Quality
Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Norfolk Southern (NSC) and Union Pacific (UNP) compare, as of Aug 14, 2026.
As of Aug 14, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Union Pacific as the less overvalued of the two: Norfolk Southern trades at $338 versus a fair value of $115 (-66%), while Union Pacific trades at $298 versus $141 (-53%).
Norfolk Southern
NSC · USD · Industrials
-66%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$338
Fair Value$115
Quality60/100
Union Pacific
UNP · USD · Industrials
-53%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$298
Fair Value$141
Quality67/100
Head-to-head numbers
Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).
Norfolk SouthernUnion Pacific
Valuation
27.2×P/E (TTM)24.6×
6.04×P/S (TTM)7.25×
4.73×P/B9.70×
15.8×EV/EBITDA16.5×
4.78×PEG3.64×
1.7%Dividend yield1.8%
$5.40Dividend per share$5.48
Profitability
22%Net margin29%
32%Operating margin40%
18%Return on equity41%
6%Return on assets9%
Growth
0%Revenue growth (YoY)3%
-1.5%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-0.5%
4.5%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)4.6%
Balance & size
1.06×Debt / equity1.64×
$74BMarket cap$179B
expensiveGrowth qualityhealthy
Union Pacific leads: 4 to 10 metric wins.
Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.
Quality in detail
The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.
Norfolk Southernof which business quality 58 · market factors 64Union Pacificof which business quality 63 · market factors 73
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
49
64
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
59
57
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
50
47
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
65
74
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
54
65
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
80
86
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
93
100
What the models say
The median fair value (base case) per model family, each in the currency of its trading venue. Green = above the current price, red = below.
Norfolk Southern
DCF Models$98.71
Earnings-Based$131
Dividend Discount$69.56
Multiples$227
Asset-Based$46.38
Growth DCF$58.30
Economic Profit$102
Growth Earnings$207
24 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.
Union Pacific
DCF Models$122
Earnings-Based$97.30
Multiples$180
Asset-Based$20.84
Growth DCF$69.97
Economic Profit$121
Growth Earnings$204
23 of 23 models see the stock below the current price.
Scenario ranges
From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.
Norfolk Southern
Bear $78.07Fair Value $115Bull $270
$338 = current price (white tick)
Union Pacific
Bear $87.76Fair Value $141Bull $266
$298 = current price (white tick)
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Ranked within their sector
Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.
Norfolk Southern · Industrials
Quality score60 · above median
Fair value upside-66% · bottom 25%
Union Pacific · Industrials
Quality score67 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-53% · below median
Bottom line
As of Aug 14, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Union Pacific as the less overvalued of the two: Norfolk Southern trades at $338 versus a fair value of $115 (-66%), while Union Pacific trades at $298 versus $141 (-53%).
Union Pacific has the higher quality score (67/100).
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A model-based valuation snapshot from 21 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.
