Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $179B · ISIN US9078181081
What is Union Pacific Corporation really worth?
Union Pacific Corporation
UNP · US
A solid business, but trading 105% above our fair value of $141.29.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −2.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($265.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($87.76 to $265.68). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $170.93 – $310.62 · fair‑value band $87.76 – $265.68 · the $289.15 price screens above the $141.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) currently trades at $289.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $141.29, implying the stock looks roughly 104.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $204.37 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $289.15 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $20.84, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Union Pacific Corporation generated revenue of $24.7B at a net margin of 29.2%. Revenue grew 3.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 40.7%. Net debt stands at $30.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $87.76 (bear case) to $265.68 (bull case); at $289.15, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −51%, UNP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.58 per share, which is 3.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($204.37) versus Asset-Based ($20.84). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States.
Full company description
Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States. It offers transportation services for grain and grain products, fertilizers, food and refrigerated products, and coal and renewables to grain processors, animal feeders, and ethanol and renewable biofuel producers; and construction products, industrial chemicals, plastics, forest products, specialized products, metals and ores, petroleum, liquid petroleum gases, soda ash, and sand, as well as finished automobiles, automotive parts, and merchandise in intermodal containers. The company was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Union Pacific Corporation reported revenue of $24.5B in FY2025 versus $21.8B in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was $7.1B in FY2025, compounding +2.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.2 % · buybacks/dilution +4.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
UNP screens 105% overvalued. Compare with CSX Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Union Pacific (UNP) Stock Looks About Fairly Valued Today
- Union Pacific Sees Norfolk Southern Merger Closing by Late 2027 as STB Review Advances
- Is Union Pacific Stock Outperforming the S&P 500?
Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSX Corporation CSX | $48.99 | $12.62 | −74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $94.12 | $34.33 | −64% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNR | C$175.06 | C$92.68 | −47% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $332.96 | $114.36 | −66% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $297.57 | $144.80 | −51% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.87 | ¥5.65 | +16% |
| MTR Corporation 0066 | HK$32.04 | HK$17.85 | −44% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.98 | ¥9.53 | +59% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.72 | ¥6.22 | +32% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 146,900 KRW | 125,182 KRW | −15% |
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