MTR Corp Ltd (0066) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$198B (≈ $25.2B) · ISIN HK0066009694
What is MTR Corp Ltd really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 85% above our fair value of HK$17.85.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +2.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$25.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$13.39 to HK$25.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$20.74 – HK$38.48 · fair‑value band HK$13.39 – HK$25.02 · the HK$32.94 price screens above the HK$17.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
MTR Corp Ltd (0066) currently trades at HK$32.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$17.85, implying the stock looks roughly 84.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$41.93 per share, and 4 of the 14 models we run sit above the HK$32.94 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$14.66, and 10 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, MTR Corp Ltd generated revenue of HK$55.5B at a net margin of 27.6%. Revenue declined 8.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.7%. Net debt stands at HK$78.2B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$13.39 (bear case) to HK$25.02 (bull case); at HK$32.94, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −46%, 0066 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$41.93) versus Earnings-Based (HK$14.66). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
MTR Corporation Limited engages in railway design, construction, operation, maintenance, and investment in Hong Kong, Australia, Mainland China, Macao, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.
Full company description
MTR Corporation Limited engages in railway design, construction, operation, maintenance, and investment in Hong Kong, Australia, Mainland China, Macao, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. It operates through Hong Kong Transport Operations; Hong Kong Station Commercial Businesses; Hong Kong Property Rental and Management Businesses; Hong Kong Property Development; Mainland China and International Railway, Property Rental and Management Businesses; Mainland China Property Development; and Other Businesses segments. The company offers passenger operation and related services on the domestic mass transit railway system, the Airport Express, cross-boundary railway connections, light rail and bus feeder with railway system, and intercity railway transport. It is also involved in railway project management and property development businesses; station commercial business, including leasing of station retail space, leasing of advertising space inside trains and stations, and enabling of telecommunication services on the railway system; property business comprising property development, investment, management, and leasing management of shopping malls and offices; and investment in related new technologies. In addition, the company provides railway management, engineering, and technology training services. MTR Corporation Limited was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Kowloon Bay, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MTR Corp Ltd reported revenue of HK$55.5B in FY2025 versus HK$47.2B in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$14.0B in FY2025, compounding +10.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.5 % · buybacks/dilution −0.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
0066 screens 85% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $307.41 | $141.29 | −54% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $48.99 | $12.62 | −74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $94.12 | $34.33 | −64% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNR | C$175.06 | C$92.68 | −47% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $332.96 | $114.36 | −66% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $297.57 | $144.80 | −51% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.87 | ¥5.65 | +16% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.98 | ¥9.53 | +59% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.72 | ¥6.22 | +32% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 146,900 KRW | 125,182 KRW | −15% |
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