Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 235B CNY (≈ $35.1B) · ISIN CNE100003RV9
What is Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd really worth?
A solid business, trading 13% below our fair value of ¥5.65.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price −3.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.33 – ¥6.37 · fair‑value band ¥3.98 – ¥7.07 · the ¥4.90 price screens below the ¥5.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
Analysis
Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816) currently trades at ¥4.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.65, implying the stock looks roughly 13.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥6.38 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥4.90 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.27, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd generated revenue of 43.4B CNY at a net margin of 30.8%. Revenue grew 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.8%. Net debt stands at 32.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥3.98 (bear case) to ¥7.07 (bull case); at ¥4.90, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at 15%, 601816 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.0924 per share, which is 1.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥6.38) versus Earnings-Based (¥2.27). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co., Ltd. engages in the construction and operation of high-speed trains for passengers. The company provides high-speed rail transportation services to passengers on the operated trains and collecting ticket prices, as well as overhead line use and other services to passengers.
Full company description
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co., Ltd. engages in the construction and operation of high-speed trains for passengers. The company provides high-speed rail transportation services to passengers on the operated trains and collecting ticket prices, as well as overhead line use and other services to passengers. It also offers passenger transportation, consulting, property management, logistics, warehousing, and parking services. The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd reported revenue of 43.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 29.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was 13.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding +28.6%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $307.41 | $141.29 | −54% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $48.99 | $12.62 | −74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $94.12 | $34.33 | −64% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNR | C$175.06 | C$92.68 | −47% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $332.96 | $114.36 | −66% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $297.57 | $144.80 | −51% |
| MTR Corporation 0066 | HK$32.04 | HK$17.85 | −44% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.98 | ¥9.53 | +59% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.72 | ¥6.22 | +32% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 146,900 KRW | 125,182 KRW | −15% |
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