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Daqin Railway Co Ltd (601006) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 95.3B CNY (≈ $14.2B) · ISIN CNE000001NG4

What is Daqin Railway Co Ltd really worth?

DR Daqin Railway Co Ltd 601006 · SHG
Price¥4.83
Fair Value¥5.29
Upside+9.5%
Quality34/100

Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value of ¥5.29.

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Strengths

Ranks above peers (11/14)

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.2% net margin
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 38/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 22 out of 100
!Weak on past: 15 out of 100

For context

·4.60% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range ¥3.98 – ¥6.63

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price +0.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥7.78 ¥4.55 Fair Value ¥5.29 Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.55 – ¥7.78 · fair‑value band ¥3.98 – ¥6.63 · the ¥4.83 price screens below the ¥5.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Daqin Railway Co Ltd (601006) currently trades at ¥4.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.29, implying the stock looks roughly 8.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥5.54 per share, and 10 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥4.83 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.88, and 6 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Daqin Railway Co Ltd generated revenue of 78.4B CNY at a net margin of 7.2%. Revenue grew 4.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 43.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥3.98 (bear case) to ¥6.63 (bull case); at ¥4.83, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at 9%, 601006 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.0462 per share, which is 0.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence ¥6.15 ¥6.14 ¥5.49 76
EPV ¥2.64 ¥2.87 ¥3.06 74
ROIC Compounder ¥2.64 ¥2.87 ¥3.06 72
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥2.02 ¥6.14 ¥8.15 65
Lynch FV ¥1.31 ¥1.88 ¥2.44 61
PEG = 1.0 ¥1.31 ¥1.88 ¥2.44 57
EPV ¥2.64 ¥2.87 ¥3.06 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥2.18 ¥4.54 ¥7.20 66
DDM Multi-Stage ¥2.18 ¥3.57 ¥4.77 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥4.68 ¥6.24 ¥7.80 63
P/S Multiple ¥3.79 ¥5.05 ¥6.31 58
P/B Multiple ¥3.79 ¥5.05 ¥6.31 55
EV/EBIT ¥4.88 ¥6.07 ¥7.26 66
EV/EBITDA ¥6.85 ¥8.69 ¥10.54 67
EV/Revenue ¥3.86 ¥4.95 ¥6.04 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.14 ¥5.54 ¥8.27 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence ¥6.15 ¥6.14 ¥5.49 76
ROIC Compounder ¥2.64 ¥2.87 ¥3.06 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥3.84 ¥5.48 ¥7.13 67

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥5.54) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.88). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 16.7
P/S ratio 1.27 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) ¥0.2900 price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.7
Dividend yield 4.6% payout 76.6%
Net margin 7.6% FY2025
Return on equity 3.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 12.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 78.4B CNY TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.3% 3y avg +0.8%
EPS growth (YoY) −7.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −22.2B CNY FY2025
Net cash 43.0B CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 14
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 50
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 99
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 25
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. provides railway freight and passenger transport services in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It transports coal, coke, steel, and ore, as well as containers and scattered bulk goods. The company also provides railway passenger and freight transportation, railway freight loading and unloading warehousing, etc.

Full company description

Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. provides railway freight and passenger transport services in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It transports coal, coke, steel, and ore, as well as containers and scattered bulk goods. The company also provides railway passenger and freight transportation, railway freight loading and unloading warehousing, etc. services. In addition, it offers services to other domestic railway transportation enterprises, including locomotive traction, freight car use, track use, and freight car repair, etc. Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. was founded in 2004 and is based in Taiyuan, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Daqin Railway Co Ltd reported revenue of 77.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 78.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was 5.9B CNY in FY2025, compounding −16.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 22/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
77.6B CNY
Latest YoY
+4.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (22Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−12.0% (−16.6 + 4.6)
Revenue −0.3%/yr
FY21 78.7B CNY
FY22 75.8B CNY
FY23 81.0B CNY
FY24 74.6B CNY
FY25 77.6B CNY
Net income −16.6%/yr
FY21 12.2B CNY
FY22 11.2B CNY
FY23 11.9B CNY
FY24 9.0B CNY
FY25 5.9B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024) −4.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +2.2 %

of which total revenue +4.3 % · buybacks/dilution −2.1 %

EBIT margin −4.7 %
Tax rate −0.6 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Daqin Railway Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601006

Peer Group

Railroads · 111 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +10% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Revenue growth 4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.6% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.06× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.58× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.22× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.22× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE46 · sector 20
FUTURE22 · sector 20
PAST15 · sector 29
HEALTH97 · sector 91
DIVIDEND91 · sector 45

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $307.41 $141.29 −54%
CSX Corporation CSX $48.99 $12.62 −74%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $94.12 $34.33 −64%
Canadian National Railway Company CNR C$175.06 C$92.68 −47%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $332.96 $114.36 −66%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $297.57 $144.80 −51%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.87 ¥5.65 +16%
MTR Corporation 0066 HK$32.04 HK$17.85 −44%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.98 ¥9.53 +59%
Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 146,900 KRW 125,182 KRW −15%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Daqin Railway Co Ltd (601006) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.29 versus a price of ¥4.83, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 601006?
Our model-based fair value for Daqin Railway Co Ltd is ¥5.29 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.83.
What is the quality score of 601006?
Daqin Railway Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Daqin Railway Co Ltd (601006)?
Daqin Railway Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 78.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 601006?
The net profit margin of Daqin Railway Co Ltd is about 7.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Daqin Railway Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Daqin Railway Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.60% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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