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Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $82.5B · ISIN CA13646K1084

What is Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited really worth?

CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited logo Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP · US
Price$91.30
Fair Value$34.33
Upside−62.4%
Quality60/100

A solid business, but trading 166% above our fair value of $34.33.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 27.2% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 76/100

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +14.4 %/yr)
!Trails peers (5/15)
!Weak on dividend: 20 out of 100

For context

·1.00% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $31.05 – $60.30

Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 31, 2026, revised from $34.38 to $34.33 (−0.1%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +0.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($60.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($31.05 to $60.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$96.69 $62.16 Fair Value $34.33 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $62.16 – $96.69 · fair‑value band $31.05 – $60.30 · the $91.30 price screens above the $34.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.

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Analysis

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) currently trades at $91.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.33, implying the stock looks roughly 166.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $87.05 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $91.30 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $13.66, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited generated revenue of $15.0B at a net margin of 27.2%. Revenue declined 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.4%. Net debt stands at $23.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $31.05 (bear case) to $60.30 (bull case); at $91.30, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −62%, CP screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.58 per share, which is 4.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence $44.17 $48.28 $66.95 76
EPV $23.49 $31.12 $37.79 74
FCF DCF $5.54 $21.15 $45.04 73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $5.54 $21.15 $45.04 73
Owner Earnings $16.45 $38.19 $71.45 72
5Y Revenue Exit $0.7300 $13.53 $29.74 64
5Y EBITDA Exit $36.07 $79.78 $131.25 72
5Y P/E Exit $30.08 $68.55 $109.20 68
10Y Revenue Exit $1.55 $13.67 $29.73 59
10Y EBITDA Exit $24.76 $59.72 $107.35 65
10Y P/E Exit $20.94 $51.91 $90.50 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $31.72 $99.61 $132.60 64
Lynch FV $21.78 $31.11 $40.45 61
PEG = 1.0 $21.78 $31.11 $40.45 57
EPV $23.49 $31.12 $37.79 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $8.23 $17.12 $27.16 66
DDM Multi-Stage $8.23 $13.67 $17.97 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $73.47 $97.96 $122.45 63
P/S Multiple $25.48 $33.97 $42.46 58
P/B Multiple $59.47 $79.30 $99.12 55
EV/EBIT $58.30 $85.15 $112.00 65
EV/EBITDA $61.51 $89.44 $117.37 67
EV/Revenue — $8.31 $17.48 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $25.84 $34.62 $51.68 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $6.01 $19.81 $39.62 72
Rev-Margin DCF $0.7300 $13.66 $28.62 65
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence $44.17 $48.28 $66.95 76
ROIC Compounder $23.49 $31.12 $37.79 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $60.94 $87.05 $113.17 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($87.05) versus Growth DCF ($13.66). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 28.1
P/S ratio 7.72 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $3.25 price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.1
Dividend yield 1.0% payout 28.1%
Net margin 27.5% FY2025
Return on equity 8.4% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4% avg 5y
Operating margin 37.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $15.0B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −2.5% 3y avg +19.6%
EPS growth (YoY) −3.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $2.2B FY2025
Net debt $23.0B FY2025 · ≈ 10.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 57
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 49
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 64
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 74
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 94
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates a transcontinental freight railway in Canada, the United States, and Mexico.

Full company description

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates a transcontinental freight railway in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. The transports bulk commodities, including grain, coal, potash, fertilizers, and sulphur; merchandise freight consists of industrial and consumer products, such as forest products, energy, chemicals and plastics, metals, minerals, consumer products, and automotive; and intermodal traffic comprising retail goods in overseas containers. The company also provides rail and intermodal transportation services through a network of approximately 20,000 miles serving business centers. The company was formerly known as Canadian Pacific Railway Limited and changed its name to Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited in April 2023. Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited reported revenue of C$15.1B in FY2025 versus C$8.0B in FY2021, a compound +17.2%/yr. Reported net income was C$4.1B in FY2025, compounding +9.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$15.1B
Latest YoY
+3.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+19.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (28Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+5.7% (4.7 + 1.0)
Revenue +17.2%/yr
FY21 C$8.0B
FY22 C$8.8B
FY23 C$12.6B
FY24 C$14.5B
FY25 C$15.1B
Net income +9.8%/yr
FY21 C$2.9B
FY22 C$3.5B
FY23 C$3.9B
FY24 C$3.7B
FY25 C$4.1B

CP screens 166% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →

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Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited · Fair Value
$34.33 −166%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CP

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Railroads · 111 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside −62% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 27% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 38% · Top 25%
Revenue growth −3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.0% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.44× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 28.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.80× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 5.51× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 38.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 12.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.22× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 20
FUTURE0 · sector 20
PAST34 · sector 29
HEALTH78 · sector 91
DIVIDEND20 · sector 45

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $307.41 $141.29 −54%
CSX Corporation CSX $48.99 $12.62 −74%
Canadian National Railway Company CNR C$175.06 C$92.68 −47%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $332.96 $114.36 −66%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $297.57 $144.80 −51%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.87 ¥5.65 +16%
MTR Corporation 0066 HK$32.04 HK$17.85 −44%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.98 ¥9.53 +59%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.72 ¥6.22 +32%
Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 146,900 KRW 125,182 KRW −15%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $34.33 versus a price of $91.30, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CP?
Our model-based fair value for Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is $34.33 (as of Aug 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $91.30.
What is the quality score of CP?
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)?
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $15.0B (latest available figure, as of Aug 31, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CP?
The net profit margin of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is about 27.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 27.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited pay a dividend?
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.00% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 31, 2026).
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