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STOCK COMPARISON

Canadian Pacific Kansas City vs Union Pacific: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) and Union Pacific (UNP) compare, as of Sep 5, 2026.

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Union Pacific as the less overvalued of the two: Canadian Pacific Kansas City trades at $91.30 versus a fair value of $34.33 (-62%), while Union Pacific trades at $289 versus $141 (-51%).
Canadian Pacific Kansas City
CP · USD · Industrials
-62%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$91.30
Fair Value$34.33
Quality60/100
Union Pacific
UNP · USD · Industrials
-51%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$289
Fair Value$141
Quality67/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

Canadian Pacific Kansas CityUnion Pacific
Valuation
28.7×P/E (TTM)24.6×
5.51×P/S (TTM)7.25×
1.80×P/B9.70×
12.7×EV/EBITDA16.5×
2.22×PEG3.64×
−62.4%Fair value upside−51.1%
1.0%Dividend yield1.9%
$0.91Dividend per share$5.48
Profitability
38%Operating margin40%
0.87×EBIT margin trend (5Y)1.00×
8%Return on equity41%
4%Return on assets9%
Growth
-3%Revenue growth (YoY)3%
19.6%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-0.5%
14.4%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)4.6%
+5.7%Value creation/yr+9.4%
Balance & size
6.4×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)7.5×
0.44×Debt / equity1.64×
$82BMarket cap$179B
expensiveGrowth qualityhealthy

Union Pacific leads: 7 to 9 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Canadian Pacific Kansas Cityof which business quality 56 · market factors 61 Union Pacificof which business quality 63 · market factors 70
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
40
64
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
57
57
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
57
71
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
49
40
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
49
47
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
64
74
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52
62
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
74
78
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
94
100

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyCanadian Pacific Kansas CityPrice $91.30Union PacificPrice $289
DCF Models-51%below the price$45.05-58%below the price$122
Earnings-Based-66%below the price$31.12-66%below the price$97.30
Dividend Discount-83%below the price$15.40n/a
Multiples-10%close to the price$82.23-38%below the price$180
Asset-Based-62%below the price$34.62-93%below the price$20.84
Growth DCF-82%below the price$16.74-76%below the price$69.97
Economic Profit-57%below the price$39.70-58%below the price$121
Growth Earnings-5%close to the price$87.05-29%below the price$204
Minimum-83%below the price$15.40-93%below the price$20.84
Maximum-5%close to the price$87.05-29%below the price$204
Median-59%below the price$37.16-58%below the price$121
Geometric mean-59%below the price$37.05-67%below the price$96.44

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Canadian Pacific Kansas City: 24 of 26 models see the stock below the current price.

Union Pacific: 23 of 23 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

Canadian Pacific Kansas City
Bear $31.05Fair Value $34.33Bull $60.30
$91.30 = current price (white tick)
Union Pacific
Bear $87.76Fair Value $141Bull $266
$289 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Canadian Pacific Kansas City · Industrials

Quality score60 · above median
Fair value upside-62% · bottom 25%

Union Pacific · Industrials

Quality score67 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-51% · below median

Bottom line

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Union Pacific as the less overvalued of the two: Canadian Pacific Kansas City trades at $91.30 versus a fair value of $34.33 (-62%), while Union Pacific trades at $289 versus $141 (-51%).

Union Pacific has the higher quality score (67/100).

See the full analysis →
Canadian Pacific Kansas City · Union Pacific

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.