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STOCK COMPARISON

MTR Corp vs Union Pacific: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how MTR Corp (0066) and Union Pacific (UNP) compare, as of Sep 5, 2026.

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees MTR Corp as the less overvalued of the two: MTR Corp trades at HK$32.94 versus a fair value of HK$17.85 (-46%), while Union Pacific trades at $289 versus $141 (-51%).
MTR Corp
0066.HK · HKD · Industrials
-46%
upside to fair value
overvalued
PriceHK$32.94
Fair ValueHK$17.85
Quality42/100
Union Pacific
UNP · USD · Industrials
-51%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$289
Fair Value$141
Quality67/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

MTR CorpUnion Pacific
Valuation
13.5×P/E (TTM)24.6×
3.57×P/S (TTM)7.25×
1.03×P/B9.70×
9.3×EV/EBITDA16.5×
0.68×PEG3.64×
−45.8%Fair value upside−51.1%
4.0%Dividend yield1.9%
HK$1.31Dividend per share$5.48
Profitability
37%Operating margin40%
—EBIT margin trend (5Y)1.00×
8%Return on equity41%
3%Return on assets9%
Growth
-9%Revenue growth (YoY)3%
5.1%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-0.5%
5.4%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)4.6%
+9.3%Value creation/yr+9.4%
Balance & size
7.9×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)7.5×
0.51×Debt / equity1.64×
$25BMarket cap$179B
expensiveGrowth qualityhealthy

MTR Corp leads: 11 to 4 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

MTR Corpof which business quality 41 · market factors 64 Union Pacificof which business quality 63 · market factors 70
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
36
64
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
23
57
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
25
71
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
43
40
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
51
47
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
90
74
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
48
62
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
64
78
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
81
100

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyMTR CorpPrice HK$32.94Union PacificPrice $289
DCF Modelsn/a-58%below the price$122
Earnings-Based-55%below the priceHK$14.66-66%below the price$97.30
Dividend Discount-32%below the priceHK$22.46n/a
Multiples-41%below the priceHK$19.57-38%below the price$180
Asset-Based-37%below the priceHK$20.72-93%below the price$20.84
Growth DCFn/a-76%below the price$69.97
Economic Profit-18%below the priceHK$27.00-58%below the price$121
Growth Earnings+27%above the priceHK$41.93-29%below the price$204
Minimum-55%below the priceHK$14.66-93%below the price$20.84
Maximum+27%above the priceHK$41.93-29%below the price$204
Median-34%below the priceHK$21.59-58%below the price$121
Geometric mean-30%below the priceHK$23.08-67%below the price$96.44

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

MTR Corp: 10 of 14 models see the stock below the current price.

Union Pacific: 23 of 23 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

MTR Corp
Bear HK$13.39Fair Value HK$17.85Bull HK$25.02
HK$32.94 = current price (white tick)
Union Pacific
Bear $87.76Fair Value $141Bull $266
$289 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

MTR Corp · Industrials

Quality score42 · bottom 25%
Fair value upside-46% · below median

Union Pacific · Industrials

Quality score67 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-51% · below median

Bottom line

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees MTR Corp as the less overvalued of the two: MTR Corp trades at HK$32.94 versus a fair value of HK$17.85 (-46%), while Union Pacific trades at $289 versus $141 (-51%).

Union Pacific has the higher quality score (67/100).

See the full analysis →
MTR Corp · Union Pacific

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.