Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $1.7B · ISIN US28852N1090
What is Ellington Financial Inc. really worth?
Ellington Financial Inc.
EFC · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 17% above our fair value of $11.43.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +0.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.91 – $13.71 · fair‑value band $8.58 – $14.29 · the $13.35 price screens above the $11.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) currently trades at $13.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.43, implying the stock looks roughly 16.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $13.45 per share, and 2 of the 4 models we run sit above the $13.35 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.80, and 2 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ellington Financial Inc. generated revenue of $400M at a net margin of 53.4%. Revenue grew 76.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.2%. Net debt stands at $16.8B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.58 (bear case) to $14.29 (bull case); at $13.35, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −14%, EFC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.0408 per share, which is 0.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($13.45) versus Asset-Based ($9.80). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Ellington Financial Inc., through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, acquires and manages mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets in the United States. It operates in two segments, Investment Portfolio and Longbridge.
Full company description
Ellington Financial Inc., through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, acquires and manages mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets in the United States. It operates in two segments, Investment Portfolio and Longbridge. The company acquires and manages residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by prime jumbo, Alt-A, non-QM, manufactured housing, subprime residential, and single-family-rental mortgage loans; RMBS for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the U.S. government agency or the U.S. government-sponsored entity; residential and commercial mortgage loans; residential mortgage-backed securities; commercial mortgage-backed securities; consumer loans and asset-backed securities backed by consumer loans; investments referencing mortgage servicing rights on traditional forward mortgage loans; collateralized loan obligations; non-mortgage- and mortgage-related derivatives; debt and equity investments in loan origination companies; and other strategic investments. It also offers reverse mortgage loans, including associated financial assets, financing, hedging, and allocated expenses. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for federal income tax purposes that intends to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income as dividends to shareholders. Ellington Financial Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Old Greenwich, Connecticut.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ellington Financial Inc. reported revenue of $675M in FY2025 versus $122M in FY2021, a compound +53.4%/yr. Reported net income was $147M in FY2025, compounding +15.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +21.6 % · buybacks/dilution −10.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
EFC screens 17% overvalued. Compare with Annaly Capital Management, Inc →
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.62 | $22.84 | +1% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.90 | $11.50 | +6% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $15.81 | $14.79 | −6% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $10.19 | $20.75 | +104% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $13.06 | $6.65 | −49% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $14.28 | $14.71 | +3% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.32 | $17.57 | +8% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.27 | −4% |
| Ladder Capital Corp LADR | $9.98 | $7.68 | −23% |
| Two Harbors Investment Corp TWO | $12.18 | $17.23 | +41% |
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