Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc (BXMT) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $3.0B · ISIN US09257W1009
What is Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc really worth?
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc
BXMT · US
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of $14.71.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $14.84 to $14.71 (−0.9%) since Jul 26, 2026. Share price −1.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.97 – $21.01 · fair‑value band $9.71 – $14.71 · the $14.16 price screens below the $14.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc (BXMT) currently trades at $14.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.71, implying the stock looks roughly 3.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $28.94 per share, and 7 of the 13 models we run sit above the $14.16 price. Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $6.89, and 6 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Revenue grew 34.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.9%. Net debt stands at $15.7B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 23.6. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $9.71 (bear case) to $14.71 (bull case); at $14.16, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 4%, BXMT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($28.94) versus DCF Models ($6.89). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc., a real estate finance company, originates, acquires, and manages loans and other debt or credit-oriented investments collateralized by or relating to commercial real estate.
Full company description
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc., a real estate finance company, originates, acquires, and manages loans and other debt or credit-oriented investments collateralized by or relating to commercial real estate. The company's investment portfolio consists of senior floating rate mortgage loans that are secured by a first-priority mortgage on commercial real estate assets. It has operations in the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, Spain, Sweden, Canada, rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. The company was formerly known as Capital Trust, Inc. and changed its name to Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. in May 2013. Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $514M in FY2021, a compound +31.1%/yr. Reported net income was $110M in FY2025, compounding −28.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +23.5 % · buybacks/dilution −8.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.62 | $22.84 | +1% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.90 | $11.50 | +6% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $15.81 | $14.79 | −6% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $10.19 | $20.75 | +104% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $13.06 | $6.65 | −49% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.32 | $17.57 | +8% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.38 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.27 | −4% |
| Ladder Capital Corp LADR | $9.98 | $7.68 | −23% |
| Two Harbors Investment Corp TWO | $12.18 | $17.23 | +41% |
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