Dynex Capital Inc (DX) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $3.2B · ISIN US26817Q8868
What is Dynex Capital Inc really worth?
Dynex Capital Inc
DX · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 127% above our fair value of $5.65.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 17, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price +0.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($4.22 to $8.43) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.45 – $13.63 · fair‑value band $4.22 – $8.43 · the $12.83 price screens above the $5.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.
Analysis
Dynex Capital Inc (DX) currently trades at $12.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.65, implying the stock looks roughly 127.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $13.89 per share, and 5 of the 14 models we run sit above the $12.83 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.65, and 9 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Dynex Capital Inc generated revenue of $304M at a net margin of 79.5%. Revenue grew 234.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.8%. Net debt stands at $13.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.22 (bear case) to $8.43 (bull case); at $12.83, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −56%, DX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.0541 per share, which is 1.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($13.89) versus Asset-Based ($6.65). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Dynex Capital, Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, invests in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. Agency MBS have a guaranty of principal payment by an agency of the U.S. government or a U.S. government-sponsored entity, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Full company description
Dynex Capital, Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, invests in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. Agency MBS have a guaranty of principal payment by an agency of the U.S. government or a U.S. government-sponsored entity, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Non-Agency MBS do not have a guaranty of principal or interest payments. The company has qualified as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Glen Allen, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Dynex Capital Inc reported revenue of $534M in FY2025 versus $66.8M in FY2021, a compound +68.1%/yr. Reported net income was $319M in FY2025, compounding +32.9%/yr from FY2021.
DX screens 127% overvalued. Compare with Annaly Capital Management, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Dynex Capital Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Dynex Capital (DX) Dividend Outlook Remains Strong, Says BTIG
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.62 | $22.84 | +1% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.90 | $11.50 | +6% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $15.81 | $14.79 | −6% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $10.19 | $20.75 | +104% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $14.28 | $14.71 | +3% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.32 | $17.57 | +8% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.38 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.27 | −4% |
| Ladder Capital Corp LADR | $9.98 | $7.68 | −23% |
| Two Harbors Investment Corp TWO | $12.18 | $17.23 | +41% |
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