Starwood Property Trust Inc (STWD) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $6.3B · ISIN US85571B1052
What is Starwood Property Trust Inc really worth?
Starwood Property Trust Inc
STWD · US
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value of $14.79.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −2.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.95 – $19.39 · fair‑value band $9.51 – $15.85 · the $15.88 price screens above the $14.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Starwood Property Trust Inc (STWD) currently trades at $15.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.79, implying the stock looks roughly 7.4% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $27.28 per share, and 6 of the 12 models we run sit above the $15.88 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.28, and 6 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Revenue grew 21.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.3%. Net debt stands at $21.6B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 16.3. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $9.51 (bear case) to $15.85 (bull case); at $15.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −7%, STWD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($27.28) versus Asset-Based ($12.28). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Commercial and Residential Lending; Infrastructure Lending; Property; and Investing and Servicing.
Full company description
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Commercial and Residential Lending; Infrastructure Lending; Property; and Investing and Servicing. The Commercial and Residential Lending segment originates, acquires, finances, and manages commercial first mortgages, non-agency residential mortgages, subordinated mortgages, mezzanine loans, preferred equity, commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), and residential mortgage-backed securities, as well as other real estate and real estate-related debt investments, including distressed or non-performing loans. Its Infrastructure Lending segment originates, acquires, finances, and manages infrastructure debt investments. The Property segment engages primarily in acquiring and managing equity interests in stabilized and to be stabilized commercial real estate properties, including multifamily properties, multi-tenant medical office net lease properties and diversified single-tenant triple net lease properties that are held for investment. Its Investing and Servicing segment manages and works out problem assets; acquires and manages unrated, investment grade, and non-investment grade rated CMBS comprising subordinated interests of securitization and re-securitization transactions; originates conduit loans for the primary purpose of selling these loans into securitization transactions; and acquires commercial real estate assets that include properties acquired from CMBS trusts. The company qualifies as a REIT for federal income tax purposes and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Starwood Property Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Starwood Property Trust Inc reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was $412M in FY2025, compounding −2.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +11.4 % · buybacks/dilution −3.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch STWD: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- STWD Stock Dips as Q2 Earnings Match Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y
- Starwood Property Trust (STWD) Q2 Earnings Meet Estimates
- Starwood Property Trust Reports Results for Quarter Ended June 30, 2026
- Analysts Estimate Starwood Property Trust (STWD) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.62 | $22.84 | +1% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.90 | $11.50 | +6% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $10.19 | $20.75 | +104% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $13.06 | $6.65 | −49% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $14.28 | $14.71 | +3% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.32 | $17.57 | +8% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.38 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.27 | −4% |
| Ladder Capital Corp LADR | $9.98 | $7.68 | −23% |
| Two Harbors Investment Corp TWO | $12.18 | $17.23 | +41% |
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