Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $16.3B · ISIN US0357108390
What is Annaly Capital Management, Inc. really worth?
Annaly Capital Management, Inc.
NLY · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 18% above our fair value of $19.41.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +0.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.38 – $23.74 · fair‑value band $14.56 – $24.27 · the $22.83 price screens above the $19.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) currently trades at $22.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.41, implying the stock looks roughly 17.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $41.35 per share, and 7 of the 8 models we run sit above the $22.83 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.71, and 1 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Annaly Capital Management, Inc. generated revenue of $2.5B at a net margin of 87.4%. Revenue grew 48.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.0%. Net debt stands at $110B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.56 (bear case) to $24.27 (bull case); at $22.83, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −15%, NLY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.2038 per share, which is 1.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($41.35) versus Asset-Based ($14.71). Highest evidence: Residual Income (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 22 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a diversified capital manager, engages in the residential mortgage finance business. The company invests in agency mortgage-backed securities collateralized by residential mortgages; non-agency residential whole loans and securitized products within the residential and commercial markets; mortgage servicing rights; agency …
Full company description
Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a diversified capital manager, engages in the residential mortgage finance business. The company invests in agency mortgage-backed securities collateralized by residential mortgages; non-agency residential whole loans and securitized products within the residential and commercial markets; mortgage servicing rights; agency commercial mortgage-backed securities; to-be-announced forward contracts; residential mortgage-backed securities; residential mortgage loans; and agency or private label credit risk transfer securities. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT). As a REIT, it is not subject to federal income tax to the extent that it distributes its taxable income to its shareholders. Annaly Capital Management, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is based in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. reported revenue of $6.7B in FY2025 versus $751M in FY2021, a compound +72.8%/yr. Reported net income was $2.0B in FY2025, compounding −4.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +16.2 % · buybacks/dilution −9.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
NLY screens 18% overvalued. Compare with AGNC Investment Corp →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Redeems Series I Preferred Stock, Is The Stock Still Undervalued?
- Is Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Still Trading At A Discount To Fair Value?
- Why Is Annaly (NLY) Up 5.9% Since Last Earnings Report?
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.90 | $11.50 | +6% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $15.81 | $14.79 | −6% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $10.19 | $20.75 | +104% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $13.06 | $6.65 | −49% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $14.28 | $14.71 | +3% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.32 | $17.57 | +8% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.38 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.27 | −4% |
| Ladder Capital Corp LADR | $9.98 | $7.68 | −23% |
| Two Harbors Investment Corp TWO | $12.18 | $17.23 | +41% |
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