ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $2.4B · ISIN US0423157058
What is ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc really worth?
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc
ARR · US
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value of $14.93.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price −1.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.56 – $25.69 · fair‑value band $13.68 – $23.51 · the $16.13 price screens above the $14.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) currently trades at $16.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.93, implying the stock looks roughly 8.0% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $23.05 per share, and 11 of the 16 models we run sit above the $16.13 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.70, and 5 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc generated revenue of $297M at a net margin of 80.9%. Revenue grew 126.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.9%. Net debt stands at $17.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.68 (bear case) to $23.51 (bull case); at $16.13, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −7%, ARR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($23.05) versus Asset-Based ($10.70). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. Its securities portfolio primarily consists of the United States Government-sponsored entity's (GSE) and the Government National Mortgage Administration's issued or guaranteed securities backed by fixed rate, hybrid adjustable rate, and …
Full company description
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. Its securities portfolio primarily consists of the United States Government-sponsored entity's (GSE) and the Government National Mortgage Administration's issued or guaranteed securities backed by fixed rate, hybrid adjustable rate, and adjustable-rate home loans; and unsecured notes and bonds issued by the GSE and the United States treasuries, as well as money market instruments. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust. ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Vero Beach, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $19.2M in FY2021, a compound +187.3%/yr. Reported net income was $323M in FY2025, compounding +201.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ARMOUR Residential REIT Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- ARMOUR Residential REIT declares $0.24 dividend
- ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Second Quarter 2026 Webcast Scheduled For July 23, 2026
- ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Confirms July 2026 Common Share and Q3 2026 Series C Preferred Share Dividends
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.62 | $22.84 | +1% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.90 | $11.50 | +6% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $15.81 | $14.79 | −6% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $10.19 | $20.75 | +104% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $13.06 | $6.65 | −49% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $14.28 | $14.71 | +3% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.38 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.27 | −4% |
| Ladder Capital Corp LADR | $9.98 | $7.68 | −23% |
| Two Harbors Investment Corp TWO | $12.18 | $17.23 | +41% |
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