AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $12.8B · ISIN US00123Q1040
What is AGNC Investment Corp. really worth?
AGNC Investment Corp.
AGNC · US
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value of $11.50.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +0.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range ($9.78 to $19.29) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.20 – $11.30 · fair‑value band $9.78 – $19.29 · the $10.66 price screens below the $11.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) currently trades at $10.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.50, implying the stock looks roughly 7.3% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $21.74 per share, and 11 of the 16 models we run sit above the $10.66 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.00, and 5 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, AGNC Investment Corp. generated revenue of $1.6B at a net margin of 91.7%. It earns a return on equity of 13.3%. Net debt stands at $100B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 8.3. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $9.78 (bear case) to $19.29 (bull case); at $10.66, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 8%, AGNC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.3873 per share, which is 3.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($21.74) versus Asset-Based ($7.00). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
AGNC Investment Corp. provides private capital to housing market in the United States. It invests in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the United States government-sponsored enterprise or by the United States government agency.
Full company description
AGNC Investment Corp. provides private capital to housing market in the United States. It invests in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the United States government-sponsored enterprise or by the United States government agency. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal or state corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as American Capital Agency Corp. and changed its name to AGNC Investment Corp. in September 2016. AGNC Investment Corp. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AGNC Investment Corp. reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $837M in FY2021, a compound +22.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.7B in FY2025, compounding +22.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −3.7 % · buybacks/dilution −6.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch AGNC: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AGNC Investment Corp's Dividend Analysis
- AGNC Investment (AGNC) Stock May Be 31% Undervalued On Equity Returns
- AGNC Investment (AGNC) Beats Stock Market Upswing: What Investors Need to Know
- AGNC Investment (AGNC) Could Be 72% Undervalued Following Its 13% Yield Focus
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 32/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.62 | $22.84 | +1% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $15.81 | $14.79 | −6% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $10.19 | $20.75 | +104% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $13.06 | $6.65 | −49% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $14.28 | $14.71 | +3% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.32 | $17.57 | +8% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.38 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.27 | −4% |
| Ladder Capital Corp LADR | $9.98 | $7.68 | −23% |
| Two Harbors Investment Corp TWO | $12.18 | $17.23 | +41% |
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