Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $1.3B · ISIN US90187B8046
What is Two Harbors Investments Corp really worth?
Two Harbors Investments Corp
TWO · US
Below-average quality, trading 29% below our fair value of $17.23.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated today
Share price +0.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (30/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($16.02). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.00 – $16.36 · fair‑value band $16.02 – $19.03 · the $12.18 price screens below the $17.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO) currently trades at $12.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.23, implying the stock looks roughly 29.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $33.92 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the $12.18 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.40, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Two Harbors Investments Corp generated revenue of $494M at a net margin of −69.5%. It earns a return on equity of −17.7%. Net debt stands at $7.7B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.02 (bear case) to $19.03 (bull case); at $12.18, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 41%, TWO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($33.92) versus Asset-Based ($11.40). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (67).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Two Harbors Investment Corp. invests in, finances, and manages mortgage servicing rights (MSRs), agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), and other financial assets through RoundPoint in the United States.
Full company description
Two Harbors Investment Corp. invests in, finances, and manages mortgage servicing rights (MSRs), agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), and other financial assets through RoundPoint in the United States. The company target assets include agency RMBS collateralized by fixed rate mortgage loans, adjustable rate mortgage loans, hybrid mortgage loans, or derivatives; and other assets, such as financial and mortgage-related assets, comprising non-agency securities and non-hedging transactions. It qualifies as a REIT for federal income tax purposes. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Saint Louis Park, Minnesota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Two Harbors Investments Corp reported revenue of $606M in FY2025 versus $255M in FY2021, a compound +24.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$454M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.62 | $22.84 | +1% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.90 | $11.50 | +6% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $15.81 | $14.79 | −6% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $10.19 | $20.75 | +104% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $13.06 | $6.65 | −49% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $14.28 | $14.71 | +3% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.32 | $17.57 | +8% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.38 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.27 | −4% |
| Ladder Capital Corp LADR | $9.98 | $7.68 | −23% |
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