Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft stock €91.49, price €57.48, upside +59.2%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €50.97 – €96.83 · fair‑value band €63.30 – €152.34 · the €57.48 price screens below the €91.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Bayerische Motoren Werke develops, manufactures, and sells automobiles and motorcycles, spare parts, and accessories worldwide. It operates through Automotive, Motorcycles, and Financial Services segments. The company offers automobiles under the BMW, MINI, and Rolls-Royce brands.
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It also develops, manufactures, and sells scooters, and motorcycles for private use and special-purpose vehicles for operational use under the BMW Motorrad brand.
In addition, the company provides car rentals; credit financing; leasing that include insurance and service products; financing for dealership and customer deposits; vehicle fleet financing services for corporate car fleets under the Alphabet brand; and financial services for the automotive sector.
It sells its products through retail outlet, agent, and independent dealerships. Bayerische Motoren Werke was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany.
Stock analysis
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) currently trades at €57.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €91.49, implying the stock looks roughly 37.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €226.11 per share, and 17 of the 17 models we run sit above the €57.48 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €63.24, and 0 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €63.30 (bear) to €152.34 (bull), the price of €57.48 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft reported revenue of €133B in FY2025 versus €111B in FY2021, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was €7.3B in FY2025, compounding −12.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €34.7B Large · P/E ratio 5.6 · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) €10.26 · Dividend yield 7.7% · Net margin 4.9% · Return on equity 6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 59%, BMW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€63.30Fair Value €91.49Bull€152.34
Price €57.48 · Upside +59.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€4.74 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.7% vs 2.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 7%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: The moderate moat from brand and operations is offset by the cyclical auto industry and limited pricing durability, with negative free cash flow adding pressure.
Main risk: Cyclical demand pressures margins in this auto manufacturing business while high costs and China pressure affect domestic production viability.
BMW is pouring roughly two billion euros into its German plants to produce the next 3 Series and the batteries that will power its Neue Klasse EVs in Munich from 2027, even as it trims management layers by a fifth and targets higher margins through efficiency. At the same time rivals are scaling back domestic capacity amid high costs and China pressure. Our models continue to see the shares as undervalued. Will the commitment to local production strengthen the business over the next decade or simply add to the margin squeeze?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 104 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Above median
Fair Value upside+60.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.6% · Above median
Return on assets2.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)5.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−7.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)7.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.62× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BMW
Frequently asked questions
Is Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €91.49 versus a price of €57.48, about +59% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BMW?
Our model-based fair value for Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is €91.49 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €57.48.
What is the quality score of BMW?
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €91.49 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario €63.30, optimistic scenario €152.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €91.49, about +59% upside versus a price of €57.48 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €63.30, optimistic scenario €152.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW)?
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €128B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft pay a dividend?
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft currently shows a dividend yield of 7.65% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft it is €91.49 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of €57.48. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, BMW trades below its calculated fair value: price €57.48, fair value €91.49, a gap of about +59% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BMW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€57.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€91.49). For Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft the two are €34.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft worth?
The market values Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft at about €34.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is €57.48; our models calculate a fair value of €91.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BMW?
Our models span a range for Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft: cautious scenario €63.30, base €91.49, optimistic €152.34 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price €57.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BMW?
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.6 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €91.49 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 0.4, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 5.4.
What is the PEG ratio of BMW?
The PEG ratio of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is 0.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 6.6%, debt of 0.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BMW from its 52-week high?
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft trades at €57.48, about 38% below its 52-week high of €92.11 and 10% above the low of €52.18 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €91.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Ferrari N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price €57.48, calculated fair value €91.49 (+59%), Quality Score 50/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BMW calculated?
We run Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €91.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft currently trades 37 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was €57.48. Our model-based fair value is €91.49, about +59% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€63.30). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€63.30 to €152.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) come from?
Earnings per share at Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft grew +4.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.0 %, EBIT margin −1.2 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft
How large is the market capitalisation of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW)?
The market capitalisation of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is €34.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is 0.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW)?
Earnings per share at Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft are €10.26 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW)?
The dividend yield of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is 7.7% (payout 42.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW)?
The net margin of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is 4.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW)?
The operating margin of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW)?
Revenue at Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is growing −7.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW)?
Earnings per share at Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft are growing −27.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) generate?
The free cash flow of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is −€3.0B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) carry?
The net debt of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is €87.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026